An updated version of Wind Force 12, the blueprint for meeting 12% of the world's electricity from renewables developed by the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) and Greenpeace, has been released in time to feed into the international conference in Bonn, Germany, "Renewables 2004," June 1-4. Windforce 12 is a feasibility study for installing 1,245,030 MW of wind power stations to generate 3000 TWh a year by 2020-equal to 12% of global demand. The needed investment to reach that target is EUR 692 billion. The blueprint shows that wind could be expected to grow at an average rate of 25% a year for the next seven years, but from 2011, the growth rate is expected to gradually slow to 10% by 2020. By then, wind could be an EUR 82.7 billion-a-year business, providing 2.3 million jobs. The cost of wind generated electricity will have come down to EUR 0.0245/kWh, with installation costs of EUR 512/kW, compared with EUR 0.379/kWh andEUR 804/kW today. The latest version of Wind Force 12 also reveals that for the first time actual market results of wind's deployment are beginning to lag behind previous predictions. In a comparison of the five Wind Force scenarios from 1999-2003, new installed wind capacity outstripped industry predictions for the first four years. But in 2003, new build was lower than the scenario figures-a trend that is set to continue unless countries adopt stronger policies in support of wind, the report says.
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Senior Renewable Energy Analyst (WindGEMINI Product Lead) DNV GL Bristol (City Centre), City of Bristol