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Esso's energy prediction
1 January 1998
Nuclear power station capacity in Germany will fall 37% by 2020 and the gap in generation will be filled by gas and imported coal, predicts oil giant Esso. Wind and other renewable energies get a low profile in Esso's future scenario. The company predicts that hydro and wind power together will increase their contribution to electricity generation from today's 1.9% of energy output to just 3.2% -- equivalent to about six million tonnes of coal -- by 2020. A number of nuclear plant will have reached the end of their standard 40 year lifetimes by 2020, dropping nuclear's share in the power mix from 29% to 17%, says Esso. Gas and imported coal will expand to take up 60% of this gap. With these figures, CO2 output from electricity generation is predicted to increase by 10% to 2020 compared with output in 1996.
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