Market projection surprise for 2025

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If market based projections are correct, the province of Ontario will lead Canada's wind capacity installation by 2025, even though its projected installation base next year is just 13 MW compared with Quebec's 100 MW. A new report from Canada's National Energy Board (NEB) analyses the future for wind energy in the country, projecting growth in Ontario that will reach 96 MW in 2005 and 1429 MW in 2025. Quebec follows with 300 MW in 2005 and 1104 MW in 2025. Ontario is predicted to have the fastest increase in power demand, so wind and other renewables will grow more in that province, according to the analysis. "We try to base our periodic outlooks on the underlying principle that market forces will govern the choices made by energy producers and consumers," says the NEB's Ian Hayhow. "In market based projections the lowest cost energy producer usually wins." Hayhow says Quebec's second ranking is influenced by the higher cost of wind compared to hydro in the province. Overall, the NEB foresees a possible annual growth for wind of 13%, bringing Canada's wind capacity to 465 MW in 2005 and 3420 MW in 2025. The NEB is required to review the outlook for Canadian supply of all major energy commodities. The review included two rounds of public workshops in eight cities. "Based on these extensive consultations, we got a fair indication that the renewable faction is alive and well," says Hayhow.

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