Renewables certificate trading from the Windicator

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After limited activity in the Swedish Electricity Certificates (SEC) market prior to the start of the obligation on May 1, trading has picked up. Prices are higher now than reported here three months ago. Indeed, they are exceeding the penalty level of SEK 175/MWh (EUR 19/MWh), although are still below the penalty-plus-tax level. The second year penalty is set to be SEK 240/MWh (EUR 26/MWh). The bid-offer range has significantly narrowed as a result of active trading with bid prices now ranging from SEK 10 to about SEK 2.

Meanwhile, the UK market remains largely unchanged. Prices for Renewable Obligation Certificates (ROCs) remain high as for the next few years there will not be enough of them in the market to meet targets set by government. The bid-offer spread for the first and second period is narrowing as the size of the pool of cash from penalties for non compliance with the targets -- and thus the amount of money available for recycling to electricity retailers as a reward for compliance -- becomes more certain. Prices for further future periods are declining, however, as a result of uncertainties in policy as well as in the rate of installations of new renewable capacity. Most of the price movement in the graph compared with last quarter is apparent, due to currency movement.

The Dutch Green Certificate market, on the other hand, has further declined to EUR 6-6.5/MWh (while prices for domestic production from wind remain higher). Still waiting for the introduction of the new renewables legislation (the MEP), activity levels in the market are low.

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