The UK is unlikely to reach its 10% target from renewable energy by 2010, but is on track to reach its 20% goal by 2020, says a report by Cambridge Econometrics. According to its latest forecast of energy demand and emissions of CO2 and SO2, the company, which provides economic and industrial assessments, says that renewable energy will account for some 8% of UK electricity by 2010. Between 2010 and 2020, renewables will grow to cover 14.5% in 2015 -- just short of the 15% target -- but reach the government's target of 20% by 2020. The analysis measures the cost effectiveness of each renewable technology and the income each technology receives from redemption of Renewables Obligation Certificates (ROCs). It estimates annual electricity demand to grow by 1% and fossil fuel prices to remain relatively high. Meantime, the fall in carbon emissions will not be enough to meet the government's domestic goal of a 20% reduction by 2010 from 1990 levels. In its latest estimate, Cambridge Econometrics says that CO2 will fall by 14.3%. Overall cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, however, will comfortably meet the country's Kyoto target of a 12.5% reduction from 1990 levels for the period between 2008 and 2012. By that time, phase two of Europe's emissions trading scheme should have kicked in, helping greenhouse gases to fall by over 17%.
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Senior Renewable Energy Analyst (WindGEMINI Product Lead) DNV GL Bristol (City Centre), City of Bristol