Immediately prior to the Renewables 2004 political conference held in Bonn, Germany, last month (page 40), the European Renewable Energy Council (EREC) released a report showing how 50% of global energy supply could come from renewables by 2040. "Renewable Energy Scenario to 2040" assumes that the Kyoto Protocol will be ratified and additional support put in place such as legally binding renewables targets, shifting support from fossil fuels and nuclear to renewable energy, internalising the social and environmental costs of conventional energy sources, and increased research spending for renewables and energy efficiency. The 50% scenario presents the annual growth rates of different renewable technologies and is based on the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the BP/Shell scenarios. "Scenarios are neither predictions nor forecasts. They show how the future could unfold," comments EREC president Arthouros Zervos.
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Senior Renewable Energy Analyst (WindGEMINI Product Lead) DNV GL Bristol (City Centre), City of Bristol