Late comers to wind investments would do well to consider emerging markets, according Christian Grutte from Spanish renewable energy consultants Leonardo Venablers in a poster presentation at Europe's annual wind conference in Milan. With the more mature markets already sewn up by corporate and financial investors in development partnerships and project purchase deals, new markets such as Eastern Europe, Turkey, Morocco, Egypt, New Zealand, Brazil and Mexico offer a foot in the door to would-be wind investors. Moreover, experience in more established markets shows that once emerging markets pass the 500 MW capacity milestone, they grow over a similar timescale, regardless of their differences. Grutte's analysis shows that it can take between two to 11 years to reach the first 500 MW, but only one to three years to reach the second. From there it takes between one to five years to go from 1 GW to 2 GW, the only exception being the US due to the stop-go nature of its tax credit incentive for investment in wind power production. But from 2 GW it takes just two years to reach 4 GW.
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Senior Renewable Energy Analyst (WindGEMINI Product Lead) DNV GL Bristol (City Centre), City of Bristol