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Windpower Intelligence Global Forecast: February 2024

Below we present our latest global capacity forecasts to 2030.

Project summary

David Carr, Data Editor

The first few weeks of the year have seen a flurry of activity in several of the world’s wind markets. In the USA, GE Vernova announced that it would supply 674 x 3.6-154 turbines to Pattern Energy, for the 3.5GW SunZia Wind project in New Mexico. And the 265.5MW Goodnight I in Texas was newly online, as was the 201MW Heartland Farms Wind in Michigan. In the offshore sector, New Jersey awarded a combined 3,742MW of capacity to Invenergy and energyRE’s 2.4GW Leading Light Wind and Attentive Energy’s 1,342MW Attentive Energy Two. And in Canada, Hydro-Québec selected eight bids from five developers, for a total of 1,550MW. 

Activity was brisk in Europe, too. In Sweden, OX2 and Stora Enso agreed to cooperate on the development of around 1GW of onshore wind capacity. And in Norway, Statkraft announced its intention to invest around €1bn in onshore wind. In Serbia, an MoU was signed, focused on the development of 2GW of renewables capacity - 1.5GW of wind and 500MW of solar - and a green hydrogen plant. And in Romania, Rezolv Energy signed the grid connection agreement for the 600MW Dunarea East & West. Meanwhile, Iberdrola and the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund announced plans to add a further 1.3GW of wind and solar capacity in Spain and Portugal, via a €2bn joint investment over the next three years. And in Russia, En+ Group and China Energy Investment Group signed an agreement with the Amur region, to develop a 1,058MW wind farm. 

In the offshore sector, Jan De Nul and Ørsted signed the export cable contract for the 2.9GW Hornsea 3, while PGE and Ørsted signed an agreement with GE Vernova and Polimex Mostostal, regarding the construction of the 1.5GW Baltica 2’s onshore infrastructure. In Italy, the EIA study for Renantis’ and BlueFloat Energy’s 1.3GW Odra Energia project was submitted. And in Estonia, CIP and Ignitis Renewables were awarded the rights to develop the Liivi 1 area. 

In China, construction of the Hainan CZ2 and CZ3 offshore developments, each with a capacity of 1.2GW, commenced, while the 500MW Honghaiwan VI and 500MW Sanshan Island VI off Guangdong were granted the permission to build. Onshore, the 400MW Bayannur II in Inner Mongolia and 200MW Wenxi in Shanxi were newly online. In India, Suzlon agreed to supply 214 of its S144-3.X MW turbines to Evren, for a 642MW project in Andhra Pradesh. And in Australia, GE Vernova confirmed the signing of a strategic framework agreement with Squadron Energy, for 1.4GW of wind projects in New South Wales. But plans for a hub in the Port of Hastings that would serve the up to 2.2GW Star of the South were rejected.

Monthly forecast

Xinxin Wang, Insights Analyst

Our upwardly revised estimate indicates a global wind capacity total of just under 1,011GW at the end of 2023. By the end of 2030, we expect to see this having topped 1,672GW.

Asia-Pacific’s 878.4GW will account for over 52% of this 2030 global total, with Europe’s 413.8GW accounting for a quarter. 

The Americas’ 337.5GW will represent a fifth of the 2030 global total, the MEA’s 42.4GW, the remainder.

Europe

From an upwardly revised end-2023 estimate of 257.4GW, we foresee Europe’s total installed on- and offshore wind capacity having reached just under 414GW.  

Germany’s onshore total is forecast to have topped 80GW by 2030, its offshore total, 26GW. We foresee Spain’s onshore total having reached almost 38GW by the end of the outlook period, while 2.4GW will be in place in Spanish waters. 

And in the UK and France, the end-2030 on- and offshore totals are forecast at 23.7GW, 33.2GW and 30.9GW, 5.4GW. 

The revised forecast for the UK’s 2030 onshore total reflects Community Windpower’s 315MW Faw Side project in Scotland having been refused.

North America

From an estimated 170GW at the end of 2023, we expect to see North America hosting just over 257GW of wind capacity by the end of 2030.

Our forecasts for the USA are largely unchanged from a month ago and we still expect its total to have reached just under 226GW by the end of the outlook period, 24GW of which will be offshore.

Between them, Texas, Iowa, Oklahoma and Kansas will continue to account for around half of the USA’s onshore total, with their totals expected to have reached 57.2GW, 17.1GW, 14.8GW and 10.9GW respectively, by 2030.

For Canada, we have raised our long-term forecast to just under 22GW, largely reflecting Hydro-Québec having selected eight bids from five developers, for a total of 1,550MW of capacity that should come online towards the end of the outlook period.

And in Mexico, we continue to foresee an end-2030 total of just under 10GW.

Asia-Pacific*

Our revised estimate of Asia-Pacific's end-2023 total installed wind capacity is 518.5GW. Over the outlook period, we expect to see this rising to 878.4GW.

In China, on- and offshore capacity is expected to have topped 651GW and 73GW by the end of 2030. This would represent growth from 403.9GW and 37.5GW at the end of 2023.

In India, almost 20GW of new capacity is expected to be added over the next seven years, taking its total to just under 64GW by 2030.   

Australia’s end-2030 total is forecast at 26.4GW, while Japan’s is expected to have topped 14GW. Almost half of Japan’s total is expected to be accounted for by newly installed offshore capacity.

Elsewhere, significant growth is also expected in Vietnam’s, South Korea’s and Taiwan’s nascent offshore sectors over the outlook period.

Central & South America

From an estimated 42.5GW at the end of 2023, we expect to see Central & South America’s total installed wind capacity having topped 80GW by the end of 2030. 

Brazil’s total will have exceeded 48GW by then, with around 19GW being added over the 2024-2030 period. 

Growth in Chile will see its total tripling over the next seven years, to over 15GW by the end of the outlook period, while more modest growth in Argentina and Uruguay will see their end-2030 totals having reached 5.7GW and 1.8GW, respectively.

Middle East & Africa

From an estimated 22.6GW at the end of 2023, we expect to see the MEA region being host to 42.4GW of wind capacity by the end of 2030.

Turkey alone will add over 5GW between 2024 and 2030, taking its total to 17.4GW. Growth in South Africa, Morocco and Egypt, meanwhile, will see their totals having reached 5.7GW, 4.3GW and 6.6GW by the end of the outlook period.

Between them, the ‘others’ in the region are expected to be host to 8.4GW by 2030, up from an estimated 3.2GW at present.

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