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Windpower Intelligence Global Forecast: January 2024

Below we present our latest global capacity forecasts to 2030.

Project summary

David Carr, Data Editor

The end of 2023 saw a flurry of activity in several of the world’s larger wind markets. In the USA, around 4GW of turbine purchase agreements were announced. And Pattern Energy closed $11bn of financing and began full construction of SunZia Transmission and the 3.5GW SunZia Wind. In Chile, Statkraft applied for a licence to build the 440MW Vientos del Desierto hybrid project. HIF Global reapplied to build its 384MW Faro del Sur wind farm. And turbine installation was under way at Engie’s 342MW Lomas de Taltal.

Activity remained brisk in Europe, too. In Spain, GE Vernova signed an up to 693MW framework agreement with Forestalia. In Greece, Macquarie acquired a 50% stake in Enel Green Power Hellas. In Sweden, AG Insurance acquired a minority stake in the 474MW Nysäter. And in Finland, YIT agreed to sell its renewable energy business to Eolus. Elsewhere, Energy Infrastructure Partners agreed to acquire a 9% stake in Eni’s renewables arm, Plenitude, while Vestas sold a 656MW Italian wind portfolio to PLT Energia and agreed to collaborate with DTEK, on the 384MW Tyligulska II in Ukraine. 

Offshore, RWE agreed to acquire Vattenfall’s 4.2GW Norfolk Offshore Wind Zone portfolio. RWE and Masdar formed joint ventures to co-develop the 3GW Dogger Bank South. Ørsted took a final investment decision on the 2.9GW Hornsea 3. Vattenfall and BASF were set to partner on the 1.6GW Nordlicht I and II. CIP and Ignitis Renewables were awarded the rights to develop a wind farm off Estonia. And Eolus submitted an application for the 1-1.7GW Najaderna. Installation commenced at the 913MW Borkum Riffgrund 3 and was completed at the 759MW Hollandse Kust Noord and at the 496MW Saint-Brieuc, while CrossWind announced that the 759MW Hollandse Kust Noord had become operational. Elsewhere, the 257MW Arcadis Ost 1 began supplying its full capacity to the German grid. And Ørsted completed the divestment of 50% ownership of the under construction 253MW Gode Wind 3. 

In China, the 2GW Horqin Right Middle Banner, 1.2GW Ulanqab Wind Power Base Phase I and 1GW Xilinhot Taifu in Inner Mongolia were brought online. Offshore, three parts of the Huizhou Gangkou II development were brought online, as was the 594MW Lemen II. In Australia, Spark Renewables was seeking views on the Dinawan Energy Hub, which will comprise 1.5GW of wind capacity alongside 1GW of solar and some battery storage. And work started on the Mortlake Turn-In transmission upgrade project, which should allow 1.5GW of additional renewable energy capacity to be grid-connected. Elsewhere, the Governments of the UAE and Kazakhstan agreed to cooperate in the development of Masdar's 1GW Kazakh project, while TotalEnergies signed the Agreement on Investment for the 1GW Mirny. And in Uzbekistan, Masdar's 500MW Zarafshan delivered its first power.

Monthly forecast

Xinxin Wang, Insights Analyst

From an estimated 982.7GW at the end of 2023, our preliminary end-2030 forecast for total global installed wind capacity is just over 1,641GW. 

Asia-Pacific currently accounts for half of the global total and this share is expected to have edged up to almost 52% by 2030, when almost 851GW will be in place in the region. 

Europe’s 412.4GW will account for a quarter of the end-2030 global total, the Americas’ 335.8GW for a further fifth and the MEA’s 42.3GW, the remainder.

Europe

From an estimated 256GW at the end of 2023, we foresee Europe’s total on- and offshore wind capacity having topped 412GW by the end of 2030.

Germany’s onshore total is expected to have reached just over 79GW by then, while its offshore total will have exceeded 26GW.

The corresponding end-2030 forecasts for the UK are 24.1GW and 33.2GW, while those for France are 30.9GW and 5.4GW.

Spain’s onshore total is expected to have reached almost 38GW by the end of the outlook period, while its waters should be host to 2.4GW.

North America

Our estimate of the region’s total end-2023 wind capacity is just under 170GW. Over the 2024-30 period, we expect to see this increasing to just over 256GW.

In the USA, capacity is tipped to have reached just under 226GW by the end of the outlook period, with 24GW of this being offshore. 

On a state-by-state basis, we expect Texas’, Iowa’s, Oklahoma’s and Kansas’ totals to have reached 57.2GW, 17.1GW, 14.7GW and 10.9GW respectively by 2030. The combined onshore capacity of the ‘other’ U.S. states is expected to have reached almost 102GW by then. 

In Canada, we expect to see around 5GW of incremental capacity appearing over the 2024-30 period, taking its total to 21GW. And in Mexico, we foresee an end-2030 total of just under 10GW.

Asia-Pacific*

From an estimated 492GW at the end of 2023, we expect to see Asia-Pacific’s total installed wind capacity having reached almost 851GW by the end of 2030.

China alone will account for just over 697GW of this, with its on- and offshore totals expected to have topped 624GW and 73GW by then.

In India, we foresee almost 20GW of incremental capacity materialising over the next seven years, taking its end-2030 total to just under 64GW. 

And in Australia, around 15GW will be added, taking the total there above 26GW by the end of the outlook period.

Elsewhere, significant growth is forecast in Japan’s, Vietnam’s, South Korea’s and Taiwan’s offshore sectors. Between them, these countries’ waters are expected to be host to around 33GW of wind capacity by 2030.

Central & South America

From an estimated 42.5GW at the end of 2023, we foresee Central & South America being host to just under 80GW by the end of 2030. 

Brazil’s total is expected to have risen from 29GW, to 47.6GW by the end of the outlook period, while Chile’s should have tripled, to just over 15GW. 

Growth in Argentina should see its total approach 6GW by 2030, while Uruguay and the ‘others’ in the region should be host to 1.8GW and 9.2GW by then.

Middle East & Africa

From an estimated 22.6GW at the end of 2023, we foresee the MEA region adding around 20GW of wind capacity over the 2024-30 period. 

Turkey will account for around a quarter of this incremental capacity, taking its total to just over 17GW.

In South Africa, Morocco and Egypt, we foresee growth to 5.7GW, 4.3GW and 6.6GW respectively, by the end of the outlook period. 

And in the ‘other’ countries in the region combined, we expect to see just over 8GW in place by then.

MEA Chart:

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