David Carr, Data Editor
In the USA, power contracts were provisionally awarded to almost 5GW of wind projects in and off New York. But Ørsted announced the cessation of development of the 2.25GW Ocean Wind 1 and 2 off New Jersey. The BOEM finalised four new WEAs in the Gulf of Mexico and backed Dominion Energy's 2.6GW Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind. The first GE Haliade-X turbine was installed at Vineyard Wind 1. And a $1.2bn tax equity package was finalised for the 806MW development. However, Avangrid was set to terminate the PPAs for its 804MW Park City Wind. Meanwhile, Ørsted took a FID on the 704MW Revolution Wind and Innergex secured a tax equity commitment for the 329.8MW Boswell Springs in Wyoming.
In Sweden, Statkraft announced its acquisition of two developers, Svevind Nordic and Njordr Offshore Wind, while wpd secured grid connections for up to 740MW of capacity. In Ukraine, DTEK Renewables was progressing plans for the more than 600MW Poltavska wind farm. Polenergia was in line to acquire a 60% stake in the developer of up to 685.6MW of capacity in Romania. And CWP and GE agreed to co-develop a large-scale wind-solar hybrid project in Albania.
In the offshore sector, Ingka Investments acquired a 20% stake in an 8.45GW UK-Irish project portfolio. The three-phase, 3.6GW Dogger Bank delivered its first power, while the 1,075MW Seagreen became fully operational. And plans were advancing for an up to 1GW project off Jersey. Elsewhere, Freja Offshore submitted a planning application for the up to 2.5GW Dyning floating project. The 1.5GW Hollandse Kust Zuid was inaugurated. Eolus submitted an application for the up to 1.4GW Arkona. Volvo and Eolus agreed to collaborate on the 1GW Västvind. Fugro commenced a geophysical survey at the site of RWE’s planned 1GW Thor. And Vestas secured a firm order for 64 V236-15.0 MW turbines for the 960MW He Dreiht. Meanwhile, the Finnish Government granted survey permits for Ilmatar’s two new project areas. And cable contracts were awarded for the 1.44GW Bałtyk II and III and 1.14GW Baltic Power projects.
In China, further new capacity was brought online. In India, Envision Energy agreed to supply 198 EN 156-3.3 MW turbines to JSW Energy. In Australia, Tilt Renewables formally lodged reports and updated EIAs for the 1,332MW Liverpool Range. DP Energy’s 430MW Callide project was approved. And EnergyAustralia joined the consortium behind the 5GW Elenora offshore wind project. Elsewhere, China's Sinohydro was set to develop the 1GW Ulytau wind farm In Kazakhstan. And Ørsted signed an exclusivity agreement with Cathay Life Insurance, regarding preferred bidder status for the acquisition of a 50% stake in the 583MW Greater Changhua 4 in the Taiwan Strait.
Xinxin Wang, Insights Analyst
From an estimated 961.6GW at present, our revised forecasts indicate an expectation of the world as a whole being host to just over 1,530GW of on- and offshore wind capacity by the end of 2029.
Asia-Pacific’s 778GW will account for just over half of this, Europe’s 389GW for a further quarter and the Americas’ 324GW, for just over a fifth. The MEA’s 39GW will make up the remainder.
From an estimated 251.3GW currently, we continue to expect to see Europe’s on- and offshore total having reached almost 389GW by 2029.
Further growth in Germany will see its on- and offshore totals having topped 71GW and 24GW by the end of the outlook period. The corresponding UK totals are forecast at 23.6GW and 30.5GW, the French ones, 29.6GW and 5.7GW.
In Spain, meanwhile, further growth will see its onshore total having topped 35GW by 2029. Spanish waters are also expected to be host to around 2GW by then.
From an estimated 168.7GW at present, we now expect to see just under 251GW in place in North America by the end of 2029, 220GW of which will be in or off the USA.
Whereas previously, we had foreseen around 25GW being in place in U.S waters by the end of the outlook period, we now expect to see only around 20GW. Cancelled projects and the likelihood of delays at others underpin this downwardly revised forecast.
Our U.S onshore forecasts are largely unchanged and on a state-by-state basis, we still expect Texas’, Iowa’s, Oklahoma’s and Kansas’ totals to have topped 55GW, 17GW, 14GW and 11GW respectively, by 2029.
Growth in Canada will see its total installed capacity having reached just over 20GW by then, while Mexico’s will have topped 10GW.
The Asia-Pacific region will continue to account for around half of the global total in 2029, with its on- and offshore wind capacity expected to have reached 778GW by then.
China alone will account for around 637GW of this, with its on- and offshore totals tipped to have reached 573GW and 64GW.
Growth in India will see its total installed capacity having reached 61GW by 2029, while Australia’s end-2029 total is forecast at 22GW.
Significant growth is also expected in Japan’s, Vietnam’s, South Korea’s and Taiwan’s offshore sectors over the outlook period. In aggregate, their waters are expected to be host to around 30GW by the end of 2029.
Central & South America
We expect to see just over 73GW of wind capacity in place in Central and South America by the end of the outlook period. The region currently hosts an estimated 42GW.
In Brazil, we foresee capacity having topped 41GW by 2029. Chile’s total will have soared to 15GW, while further growth in Argentina will see its total having reached 6GW.
Between them, Uruguay and the ‘others’ in the region will account for almost 11GW by the end of the outlook period, around one sixth of the region’s total.
Middle East & Africa
From an estimated 22.3GW at present, we continue to foresee the MEA region’s total installed wind capacity having topped 39GW by the end of 2029.
Turkey’s capacity will have exceeded 16GW by then, while South Africa’s and Morocco’s totals will each have topped 5GW.
Egypt will be host to just over 4GW by the end of the outlook period, while the ‘others’ in the region will account for 8.4GW.
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