David Carr, Data Editor
September saw continued activity in many of the world’s major wind markets. In the USA, Repsol entered the onshore sector with the acquisition of ConnectGen. Ørsted’s 200MW Sunflower Wind in Kansas began commercial operations. And Xcel Energy announced a Clean Energy Plan for Colorado. Meanwhile, turbine installation began at Avangrid’s 806MW Vineyard Wind 1 off Massachusetts. And in Canada, Acciona acquired the 400MW Forty Mile 1 & 2. In Brazil, Engie began construction of its 846MW Serra do Assuruá, while EDF began full commercial operations at the 242MW first phase of its Serra do Seridó complex. Petrobras filed licensing requests for ten offshore wind areas and Ocean Winds signed an MoU with the State of Rio de Janeiro. And in Chile, authorities approved Ibereólica’s 1.2GW ERNC Antofagasta hybrid project.
Activity was brisk in Europe, too. In Sweden, the 753MW Önusberget was fully operational, while Ellevio acquired the 1.7GW Markbygden Net transmission network. In Ukraine, Notus Energy signed a letter of intent to develop the 1GW Chernobyl wind farm. But in the UK, Community Wind Power halted its 308MW Sanquhar II project, citing rising costs. In Greece, Terna Eenrgy’s 330MW Kafireas II was completed. And in Germany, VSB Group secured €211m to repower the Elster wind farm. Offshore, turbine installation was under way at the 2.4GW Dogger Bank A & B, construction started at RWE’s 1.4GW Sofia and the 500MW+ Awel y Môr was granted development consent. Vestas confirmed receipt of a firm turbine order for ORLEN’s and Northland Power’s Baltic Power, while finance was secured for the 1.14GW project. Vattenfall exercised its step-in rights for the 630MW Nordlicht II, TenneT commissioned the DolWin6 grid connection and Skyborn Renewables received the environmental permit for its 1GW Storgrundet. Meanwhile, Octopus Energy acquired Partners Group's 10% stake in the 731.5MW Borssele III & IV.
Elsewhere, En+ Group was planning to build 1GW of wind capacity in Blagoveshchensk, on the Russian-Chinese border. In Australia, Ark Energy revised its plans for a wind farm in Queensland, with the 294MW Wooroora set to replace plans for the 602MW Chalumbin. And RES and Energy Estate received consent for the 372MW Moah Creek. But the South Australian Government rejected Skyborn Renewables’ and Australis Energy’s plans for the 600MW SA Offshore wind farm. Meanwhile, in New Zealand, an application was submitted for the 810MW Taranaki offshore wind farm. And in Taiwan, financial close was announced for the 1GW Hai Long. In South Korea, plans for the 1.5GW Chuja Islands offshore project were announced. POSCO’s energy arm signed an MoU with Equinor, to jointly develop the 750MW Firefly off Ulsan. And the Mayor of Ulsan pledged to support the development of the three-phase, 1.2GW KF Wind. Meanwhile, construction of the 300MW Zhanjiang Xuwen extension off Guangdong, China, commenced.
Xinxin Wang, Insights Analyst
From an estimated 953GW at present, we foresee the world’s total installed wind capacity having topped 1,534GW by the end of the outlook period.
Between them, Asia-Pacific’s 777GW and Europe’s 389GW will account for three-quarters of the 2029 global total, the Americas’ 329GW for one fifth and the MEA’s 39GW, the remainder.
Our forecasts for Europe are largely unchanged from a month ago and we still expect the region’s on- and offshore wind capacity to have reached almost 389GW by the end of the outlook period.
Further growth in Germany will see its onshore capacity total having topped 71GW by 2029. Offshore, the German total is set to have reached just over 24GW by then.
Around 6GW will be added onshore in Spain between 2023 and 2029, taking its total to over 35GW. Meanwhile, just over 2GW will materialise in Spanish waters towards the end of the outlook period.
Growth in the UK’s on- and offshore sectors will see its totals having topped 23GW and 30GW by 2029. This, despite the 308MW Sanquhar II in Scotland having been placed on hold. Meanwhile, the corresponding French on- and offshore totals are forecast at almost 30GW and 6GW.
Our incremental capacity forecasts for North America are largely unchanged and we still expect the region to be host to 256GW by the end of the outlook period.
In the USA, we foresee capacity rising from the current estimated total of 145.6GW, to just over 225GW by the end of 2029. Of this, around 25GW will be offshore.
On a state-by-state basis, we expect Texas, Iowa, Oklahoma and Kansas to continue to account for around half of the USA’s onshore capacity by 2029, with their capacities tipped to have hit 55.6GW, 17.2GW, 14.3GW and 11.1GW respectively.
In Canada, we foresee around 5GW of incremental capacity between 2023 and 2029, taking its total to just over 20GW. And in Mexico, growth to 10.5GW is forecast.
Our forecasts for Asia-Pacific are broadly unchanged from last month and we still foresee the region being host to just over 777GW by the end of 2029.
Further growth in China’s capacity will see its on- and offshore totals having topped 573GW and 63GW by then.
In India, around 20GW will be added between 2023 and 2029, taking its total to 61GW. And in Australia, capacity will double, to around 22GW by the end of the outlook period.
Elsewhere, we foresee significant volumes of offshore capacity appearing in Japan’s, South Korea’s, Vietnam’s and Taiwan’s waters, particularly over the latter half of the outlook period.
Central & South America
From an estimated 41GW at present, we expect to see almost 73GW of installed wind capacity in Central & South America by the end of the outlook period.
Brazil alone is forecast to add around 15GW between 2023 and 2029, taking its total to just over 41GW. Growth in Chile will see its total soar to almost 15GW by the end of the outlook period, while more modest growth in Argentina will see its total having reached 6GW by then.
Middle East & Africa
Our forecasts for the Middle East and Africa are largely unchanged from a month ago and we still expect the region to be host to just over 39GW by the end of the outlook period.
By then, Turkey’s total will have topped 16GW, while South Africa, Morocco and Egypt will be host to 5.4GW, 5.2GW and 4.1GW, respectively.
Between them, the ‘other’ countries in the region will account for 8.4GW of installed wind capacity by the end of 2029.
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