David Carr, Data Editor
The late summer has seen no let up in activity. In the USA, Invenergy unveiled plans for the 1GW Purple Skies in Minnesota, while a site certificate was approved for Capital Power's 600MW Nolin Hills in Oregon and AEP completed the sale of 1.2GW of wind assets. Meanwhile, the BOEM approved the 704MW Revolution Wind, as well as identifying two draft Wind Energy Areas off Oregon. In Canada, Nova East Wind announced its plans for a 300-400MW floating project off Nova Scotia. In Brazil, commercial operations commenced at parts of the 314MW first phase of the Cajuína complex and CTG was preparing to begin construction of the 648MW Serra da Palmeira complex. In Chile, FRV resubmitted an application for its 316.8MW Loncualhue project. And in Mexico, Sempra Energy’s plans for the 300MW Cimarrón were approved.
In Scotland, EDF sought feedback on its plans for the 400MW Liddesdale. Turbine installation was completed at SSE’s 443MW Viking, while Community Wind Power’s 308MW Sanquhar II was approved. And in Spain, Endesa was authorised to close the 1,469MW As Pontes thermal power plant in Galicia, ahead of its replacement with 1GW of wind capacity.
In the German offshore sector, RWE was granted awards for the 900MW Nordseecluster B. It was also provisionally awarded the 630MW N-6.6 site that is subject to the exercise of the step-in rights by Vattenfall, while Waterkant Energy was awarded the rights to a 270MW project.
Meanwhile, the EIB issued a preliminary credit decision for the 2.5GW Baltica. And Vestas entered into a conditional agreement to supply the up to 1.2GW Baltic Power. Mainstream Renewable Power and Ocean Winds agreed to co-develop the expanded 2.3GW Arven. The up to 1.5GW Triton project was granted a Natura 2000 permit. And turbine installation began at Dogger Bank, while deliveries of foundations for the 886MW Moray West began.
In China, several large wind farms were brought online, including the 300MW Huolinhe and 300MW Zhalantun in Inner Mongolia, while construction began at the 1GW Ruoqian in Xinjiang and at the 510MW Shandong Peninsula North BW offshore wind farm.
In Australia, Elanora Offshore announced plans to develop a two-phase, 5GW offshore wind farm off Gippsland, Victoria. Onshore, RWE signed an MoU with Stanwell Corporation to assess energy offtakes and equity investment in the 1.1GW Theodore, while Snowy Hydro and TagEnergy signed a PPA, for 40% of the output of the 756MW first stage of Golden Plains.
Elsewhere, the Egyptian New and Renewable Energy Authority signed a land allocation agreement with the consortium behind the 3GW Gulf of Suez project, while the first batch of turbines for the 500MW Red Sea Wind Energy project were shipped. Deliveries of wind turbine equipment also commenced for the 1.67GW Oxagon project in Saudi Arabia.
Xinxin Wang, Insights Analyst
From an estimated current total of 948GW, we expect to see the world as a whole being host to 1,534GW of wind capacity by the end of 2029.
Asia-Pacific’s 777GW will continue to account for half of the global total, while Europe’s 389GW will account for a quarter. Just over one fifth - 328GW - will be in the Americas, with The Middle East and Africa’s 39GW accounting for the remainder.
For Europe as a whole, we expect to see around 389GW of on- and offshore wind capacity in place by the end of the outlook period.
Onshore, we foresee Germany’s total having topped 71GW by 2029 and Spain’s, 35GW. In France and the UK, capacity growth will see their onshore totals having reached almost 30GW and 24GW by then. In Sweden, reflecting the rejection of Statkraft’s permit application for the 22-turbine Tribbhult, we foresee a downwardly revised onshore total of just over 20GW by the end of the outlook period.
Offshore, we expect to see Germany’s and the UK’s totals having topped 24GW and 30GW by the end of 2029, with the Dutch and French totals set to have reached 11.4GW and 5.7GW. Offshore capacity growth is also forecast in Denmark, Sweden and Belgium, as well as in the nascent markets of Poland, Ireland, Italy and Spain.
From an estimated 168.3GW at present, we foresee North America’s total installed capacity having reached 256GW by the end of 2029.
The USA alone will account for 225GW of this, with all bar 25GW being onshore. On a state-by-state basis, Texas’, Iowa’s, Oklahoma’s and Kansas’ end-2029 totals are forecast at 55.4GW, 17.2GW, 14.3GW and 11.1GW, respectively. Between them, the ‘other’ U.S states will account for just over 101GW by the end of the outlook period.
In Canada, around 5GW of 2023-29 incremental capacity growth is expected, taking its total to just over 20GW. Much of this growth will be outside of Ontario and Quebec. Meanwhile, Mexico’s end-2029 total is forecast at 10.5GW, around 3GW more than its current total.
From around 470GW at present, we still expect to see Asia-Pacific’s total installed capacity having topped 777GW by the end of 2029.
China alone will account for 573GW onshore and 63.7GW offshore by then. India is expected to add around 20GW over the 2023-29 period, taking its total to 61GW, while Australia’s total will double to 22GW.
Growth in Japan’s, South Korea’s, Vietnam’s and Taiwan’s offshore sectors is also forecast, taking their combined offshore total to just over 30GW by the end of the outlook period.
Central & South America
By the end of 2029, we expect to see Central & South America’s total installed capacity having topped 72GW. The region currently hosts just over 40GW.
We foresee 15GW of incremental capacity materialising in Brazil over the 2023-29 period, taking its total to 41GW.
Chile will add over 10GW, taking its total to 14.8GW, while Argentina’s total will almost double, to 6GW by 2029. Between them, the ‘others’ in the region will account for around 9GW by then.
Middle East & Africa
From an estimated 22GW at present, we foresee the MEA region’s total installed capacity having topped 39GW by the end of 2029. Turkey will account for 16.3GW of this, South Africa for 5.4MW. Morocco and Egypt will be host to 5.1GW and 4.1GW by the end of the outlook period, while the ‘others’ in the region will account for 8.4GW between them.
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