David Carr, Data Editor
Activity remained brisk in July. In the USA, Innergex closed $534m of financing for its 329.8MW Boswell Springs project. And Enel agreed to supply power from its 450MW High Lonesome wind farm in Texas, to Eaton’s manufacturing facility in Sherman. But Rhode Island Energy decided that it would not be progressing the PPA with the 884MW Revolution Wind 2. Meanwhile, the BOEM granted final approval to Ørsted’s 1.1GW Ocean Wind 1. And in Brazil, Neoenergia began full commercial operations at its 566.5MW Oitis complex.
Activity remained brisk in Europe, too. In France, power deals were awarded to more than 1GW of onshore wind projects. In Scotland, turbine installation at the 443MW Viking reached the halfway point. In Greece, Enel agreed the €345m sale to Macquarie Asset Management, of 50% of Enel Green Power Hellas. In Spain, Verbund agreed to acquire 257MW of operational capacity from EDPR. And in Albania, three bidders were awarded a total of 222MW of onshore wind capacity.
In the offshore sector, Ørsted’s 2.6GW Hornsea Project Four was approved. Iberdrola agreed a €500m green loan with Citi, for the 1.4GW East Anglia Three. And Masdar agreed with Iberdrola to co-invest in the 476MW Baltic Eagle. But Vattenfall stopped the development of its 1.4GW Norfolk Boreas project, while the Swedish Government rejected its application for Stora Middelgrund.
Elsewhere, geotechnical surveys were under way at the site of Ocean Winds' planned 2GW Caledonia offshore wind farm. Van Oord completed the installation of the 759MW Hollandse Kust Noord’s inter-array cables. Turbine installation commenced at EDF’s and ESB’s 450MW Neart na Gaoithe. Ocean Winds and Ignitis Renewables were announced as the provisional winners of a tender to develop the 700MW Lithuania Offshore I wind farm. Meanwhile, turbine installation commenced at the 497MW Fécamp. Work began at the 496MW Îles d’Yeu et Noirmoutier site. And first power was delivered from Saint-Brieuc.
In China, construction of Beijing Energy's 1GW Horqin Left Rear Banner and 1.38GW Ke'erqin was under way. And offshore, construction of the 504MW Yuhuan II began, while Mingyang and BASF agreed to co-develop a 500MW wind farm in the South China Sea.
In Australia, turbine installation was under way at the 756MW Golden Plains Stage One project, while works to connect the 412MW Goyder South to the grid were completed. And AGL Energy signed a 15-year PPA, for 40% of the output of the 396MW Rye Park. Meanwhile, the Government of Western Australia awarded ‘lead agency’ status to Copenhagen Energy's 3GW Leeuwin offshore wind farm. A consortium of Simply Blue Group, Subsea 7 and Spark Renewables unveiled plans for the up to 2GW Sea Fern floating project. And BlueFloat Energy was considering alternative plans for the location of its 1.6GW South Pacific project.
Xinxin Wang, Insights Analyst
From the current 942GW, we foresee the world as a whole being host to just under 1,533GW of wind capacity by the end of 2029.
Asia-Pacific will continue to account for half of the global total, Europe for a quarter, the Americas for just over a fifth and The Middle East and Africa, the remainder.
From an estimated 247GW at present, we now expect to see Europe’s total on- and offshore wind capacity having topped 389GW by the end of 2029.
For the UK, we have revised our long-term offshore capacity forecast, following Vattenfall’s halting of the development of its 1.4GW Norfolk Boreas project. We now expect to see around 30GW in place in UK waters by the end of 2029. Onshore, we still foresee the UK being host to just over 23GW by then.
We have also revised Denmark’s offshore capacity forecast, following the revocation of the permit for the 300MW Aflandshage project. It had been planned to bring the 26-turbine development online in 2026.
Germany’s end-2029 on- and offshore totals are forecast at 71.1GW and 24.3GW, while France’s are forecast at 29.6GW and 5.7GW. And capacity growth in Spain should see its onshore total having reached almost 36GW by the end of the outlook period, while 2.2GW is expected to materialise in Spanish waters.
Elsewhere, we have raised our long-term capacity forecast for the ‘others’ in the region, following the award of 222MW of capacity in Albania’s first utility-scale onshore wind auction. We expect to see the three planned developments coming online towards the end of the outlook period.
From the current total of just over 168GW, we continue to foresee North America being host to 255.6GW by the end of 2029.
The USA’s total is expected to have reached almost 225GW by then, of which 25GW will be offshore.
Our forecasts for the major U.S. wind states are unchanged and we continue to expect to see 55.1GW, 17.2GW, 14.3GW and 11.1GW in place in Texas, Iowa, Oklahoma and Kansas by the end of the outlook period.
Similarly, our forecasts for Canada and Mexico are unchanged and we continue to foresee their totals having topped 20GW and 10GW respectively, by the end of 2029.
Our forecasts for Asia-Pacific are largely unchanged from a month ago and we still expect to see 777GW in place in the region by the end of 2029. This would represent growth from the current estimated total of 464.7GW.
China’s end-2029 on- and offshore totals are forecast at 573GW and 63.5GW, while India’s total will exceed 61GW and Australia’s will be just under 22GW.
Elsewhere, we foresee growth in Japan’s, South Korea’s, Vietnam’s and Taiwan’s offshore sectors. Between them, these four are expected to be host to around 30GW of offshore wind capacity by the end of the outlook period.
Central & South America
From the current 40.5GW, we expect to see Central and South America’s total capacity having reached almost 72GW by the end of 2029.
In Brazil, we foresee around 15GW being added over the outlook period, taking its total to 40.5GW. In Chile, we see an additional 10GW materialising, for an end-2029 total of 14.5GW. And in Argentina we expect to see total installed capacity almost doubling, to 6GW.
Growth will be minimal in Uruguay, but more robust in the ‘other’ countries in the region. Between them, the ‘others’ will be host to 9GW by the end of 2029.
Middle East & Africa
From an estimated 21.7GW at present, we foresee the MEA region being host to 39GW of wind capacity by the end of 2029.
Turkey will account for just over 16GW of this, South Africa for 5.4GW. Morocco’s total will also have exceeded 5GW by the end of the outlook period, while Egypt’s will have topped 4GW.
Between them, the ‘others’ in the region will add around 5.5GW over the 2023-29 period, taking their total to 8.3GW.
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