David Carr, Data Editor
Recent weeks have seen no ‘summer lull’ in activity. In the USA, Brookfield agreed to acquire Duke Energy Renewables. Enel began operations at the 200MW Alta Farms in Illinois. MidAmerican Energy acquired Invenergy’s newly under construction 200MW Chickasaw County in Iowa. And the BOEM announced that it would prepare an EIS for the 2.43GW Beacon Wind. In Peru, Engie began commercial operations at the 260MW Punta Lomitas. And in Brazil, commercial operations began at the 360MW Babilônia Sul, while $290m was secured for the under construction 456MW Feijão.
In Germany, 120 projects of 1,535MW combined capacity were successful in the latest onshore auction. And in Scotland, EDF was exploring the potential for a 400MW wind farm in the Scottish Borders, while Vattenfall inaugurated the 240MW South Kyle.
In the offshore sector, first power was delivered from the 759MW Hollandse Kust Noord, while turbine installation was completed at the 1.5GW Hollandse Kust Zuid and at the 1,075MW Seagreen. Skyborn Renewables was granted the rights to develop the 2GW Pooki, while OX2 completed the sale to Ingka Investments, of 49% stakes in three other Finnish projects. And in Sweden, Skåne County backed the partners’ up to 1.5GW Triton, while Freja Offshore submitted an application for the 2GW Cirrus.
Activity was also much in evidence in the MEA region. In Egypt, Masdar, Infinity Power and Hassan Allam Utilities signed an agreement to secure land for the development of 10GW of onshore wind capacity, while Envision Energy agreed to supply turbines to AMEA Power’s 500MW Amunet project. It also agreed to supply 1.67GW of turbines to NEOM Green Hydrogen Company in Saudi Arabia.
In Australia, a Mainstream Renewable Power-AGL Energy consortium submitted a feasibility licence application for the 2.5GW Victoria Offshore project, while an MoU was signed by the Tasmanian Government and the 1GW Bass Offshore Wind Energy project’s owners, Nexsphere and Equinor.
In India, Tata Power Renewable Energy was set to establish a 966MW hybrid renewable power plant. In China, construction of the 800MW Yitongdao in Xinjiang was under way and the 450MW Pingtan A was granted the permission to build. The 500MW Bozhong B2 was brought online, while the 900MW Bozhong G was given the go-ahead. And Air Liquide signed a long-term PPA with China Three Gorges, linked to solar and wind farms in Jiangsu.
In Vietnam, authorities were investigating the feasibility of the four-phase, 6GW Cần Giờ offshore project. But Ørsted paused its offshore development activities, citing uncertainty about the country’s policy framework and route to market.
Elsewhere, Masdar and ACWA Power each signed agreements relating to 1GW wind farms in Kazakhstan. And in Uzbekistan, Envision Energy agreed to supply the 500MW Bash and 500MW Dzhankeldy projects, while turbine installation was under way at Masdar’s 500MW Zarafshan.
Xinxin Wang, Insights Analyst
From an estimated 932.3GW at present, we foresee the world as a whole being host to just over 1,534GW of wind capacity by the end of 2029.
Asia-Pacific alone will account for half of this total, with Europe’s 391GW accounting for a further quarter.
Between them, the Americas’ 327GW will account for just over a fifth of the global total, with the Middle East and Africa’s 38.9GW accounting for the remainder.
From an estimated 246.4GW at present, we foresee Europe’s total on- and offshore wind capacity having reached almost 391GW by the end of 2029.
We expect to see Germany’s onshore total having topped 71GW by then, with its offshore total having reached just over 24GW.
In Spain, around 6GW will be added onshore over the 2023-29 period, taking its total to 36GW while 2.2GW will materialise in Spanish waters.
Growth in the UK’s on- and offshore sectors will see its totals having reached 23.6GW and 31.9GW by the end of the outlook period. And in France, we foresee 29.6GW of onshore and 5.7GW of offshore capacity being in place by then.
For North America as a whole, we expect to see 255.6GW in place by the end of 2029. The region currently hosts an estimated 166.8GW.
The USA alone is forecast to be host to just under 225GW by then, around 25GW of which will be offshore.
On a state-by-state basis, we foresee capacity in Texas, Iowa, Oklahoma and Kansas having reached 55.1GW, 17.2GW, 14.3GW and 11.1GW respectively, by the end of the outlook period.
Our forecasts for Canada and Mexico are unchanged and we expect their capacity totals to have topped 20GW and 10GW respectively, by the end of 2029.
For Asia-Pacific as a whole, we expect to see just over 777GW of on- and offshore wind capacity being in place by the end of 2029. The region currently hosts an estimated 457.7GW.
China alone is expected to be host to around 573GW of onshore capacity by then, alongside 63.5GW offshore.
In India, we foresee around 20GW of capacity being added between 2023 and 2029, taking its total to just over 61GW.
And in Australia, we expect to see capacity roughly doubling, to 21.9GW by the end of the outlook period.
Elsewhere, we also expect to see growth in Japan’s, South Korea’s, Vietnam’s and Taiwan’s nascent offshore sectors.
Central & South America
Our forecasts for Central and South America are unchanged from a month ago and we still expect the region to be host to 71.5GW of wind capacity by the end of 2029.
Brazil’s capacity is forecast to have topped 40GW by then, with around 15GW expected to be added over the 2023-29 period.
Around 10GW will be added in Chile, taking its total to just over 14GW. Argentina’s installed capacity will almost double, to 6GW by the end of the outlook period. And between them, the ‘others’ in the region will account for 9GW by then, one eighth of the region’s total.
Middle East & Africa
For the Middle East & Africa, we foresee total installed capacity having reached almost 39GW by the end of 2029.
Turkey’s capacity will have reached 16GW by then, up from 12GW at present. South Africa is expected to add 2GW over the outlook period, taking its total to 5.4GW. Morocco’s end-2029 total is forecast at an upwardly revised 5.1GW, the 200MW Nassim Koudia al Baida extension having been added to the pipeline.
And in Egypt, we foresee total installed capacity having reached 4.1GW by 2029, 500MW more than previously expected, due to the addition of the Amunet project that Envision has recently agreed to supply turbines to.
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