David Carr, Data Editor
Recent weeks have seen new capacity commissioned, contracts being signed and assets changing hands. In the USA, final approval was granted to the SunZia Transmission project. Innergex began construction of its 320MW Boswell Springs in Wyoming. And the 240MW Blackjack Creek in Texas and 238MW Chevelon Butte I in Arizona were newly online. The BOEM was seeking public input on the draft EIS for the 2.8GW Atlantic Shores projects. PSEG completed the sale of its 25% stake in the 1.1GW Ocean Wind 1 to Ørsted. And Ørsted agreed to acquire Eversource Energy’s 50% interest in the OCS-A 500 lease area.
Activity remained brisk in Europe too, where Repsol announced its intention to develop over 1.7GW of Italian renewables capacity. In Germany, a strategy for 160GW of onshore wind by 2035 was outlined. In Finland, CIP and Myrsky Energia announced a partnership to develop more than 1.8GW of onshore wind capacity. And OX2 signed an agreement with Tuulialfa, regarding the development of a 1.2GW portfolio. CWP Global outlined its plans for a 450MW wind farm in Serbia. And in Spain, Naturgy acquired a 422MW operational portfolio from the Ardian infrastructure fund.
Four projects were successful in the Irish offshore auction, while PKN Orlen was provisionally awarded five sites in the Baltic Sea. OX2 agreed the sale to Ingka Investments, of 49% stakes in three Finnish projects and received permission from the Swedish Government to build the 400MW Galene. But Equinor announced that it was postponing further development of the 1GW Trollvind indefinitely. RWE became the sole owner of the 1.6GW Nordseecluster and ESB agreed to acquire a 24.5% stake in Northland Power’s ScotWind portfolio.
In China, the 400MW Heishan I, 400MW Fuyuan West III and 250MW Chaoyang were newly online. In Japan, NTT Anode Energy and JERA agreed to acquire Green Power Investment Corporation and other Pattern Energy-owned renewable energy businesses. In Australia, construction was halted at the 800MW Clarke Creek. And Windlab abandoned its plans for the up to 26-turbine Berrigan wind farm. In India, a number of turbine orders were received by Suzlon, Envision and Inox Wind. And JSW signed a 25-year PPA with SECI, linked to 300MW of under development wind projects. In Laos, construction was under way at the 600MW Monsoon project. And in Thailand, Acciona Energía and The Blue Circle secured a 25-year PPA linked to five projects totaling 436MW. In Taiwan, Boskalis announced the completion of pin piles installation at the 589MW Changfang and Xidao, while Ørsted contracted HSG Sungdong Shipbuilding, to supply 33 foundations for its 920MW Greater Changhua 2b and 4 projects. Elsewhere, CPIH and SANY announced their intention to build the 1GW Mirny wind farm in Kazakhstan. And Mingyang secured a 306MW order from Vena Energy in the Philippines.
Xinxin Wang, Insights Analyst
From the current estimated total of 926.6GW, we foresee the world as a whole being host to just over 1,534GW of wind capacity by the end of 2029.
Asia-Pacific will continue to account for around half of the global total, with its end-2029 installed capacity expected to have topped 778GW.
Europe’s 391.4GW will account for a quarter of the total, with the Americas’ 326.7GW accounting for just over one fifth. The MEA’s 38.3GW will make up the remainder.
Our forecasts for Europe are largely unchanged from a month ago and we still expect the region’s total on- and offshore capacity to have topped 391GW by the end of 2029.
Germany’s, Spain’s, France’s and the UK’s onshore totals are expected to have reached 71.2GW, 36.1GW, 29.6GW and 23.6GW respectively by then.
Growth in the offshore sector is also expected to be robust, particularly in UK, German, French, Dutch, Irish and Polish waters.
From the current estimated total of 166GW, we expect to see the region as a whole hosting just over 255GW by the end of 2029.
The USA alone will account for 224.5GW of this, of which around 25GW will be offshore. On a state-by-state basis, Texas, Iowa, Oklahoma and Kansas will add around 15.2GW, 4.7GW, 2.6GW and 2.9GW respectively over the outlook period, taking their totals to 54.9GW, 17GW, 14.3GW and 11.1GW.
Our forecasts for Canada and Mexico are largely unchanged and we still expect them to be host to just over 20GW and 10.5GW respectively, by the end of 2029.
For the region as a whole, we expect to see total installed capacity having topped 778GW by the end of 2029.
China alone will account for almost 637GW of this, with its on- and offshore totals set to have reached 573.4GW and 63.5GW by then.
In India, around 19GW of incremental capacity is expected between 2023 and 2029, taking its total to just over 61GW. Capacity in Australia, meanwhile, will double to 21.7GW.
In Japan, total installed capacity is expected to have reached 13.8GW by the end of the outlook period. Almost half of this will be offshore.
Similarly strong growth is also expected in South Korea’s, Vietnam’s and Taiwan’s offshore sectors over the coming years.
Central & South America
From the current 39GW, we expect to see Central and South America’s total installed capacity having reached 71.5GW by the end of 2029.
Brazil will see its capacity having topped 40GW by then. It currently hosts 26.6GW. Chile is expected to have added around 10GW over the outlook period, taking its total to 14.2GW. And Argentina’s capacity is forecast to almost double, to 6GW.
For the ‘other’ countries in the region, we have revised our near-term incremental capacity forecast, reflecting the suspension of construction at the 205MW Windpeshi development in Colombia.
Middle East & Africa
From an estimated 21.7GW at present, we foresee the MEA region being host to just over 38GW by the end of 2029.
Turkey will add around 4GW over the outlook period, taking its total to 16GW. South Africa will add 2GW, raising its total to 5.4GW. And Morocco’s and Egypt’s end-2029 totals are expected to have reached 4.9GW and 3.6GW, respectively.
Between them, the ‘others’ in the region will account for 8.4GW by the end of the outlook period.