David Carr, Data Editor
April saw no let up in activity. In the USA, Vestas reported a 370MW order from Xcel Energy, for the Pleasant Valley and Border Winds repowering projects in Minnesota and North Dakota. DTE Energy began commercial operations at its 225MW Meridian Wind in Michigan. The Bureau of Land Management issued a Notice to Proceed for the TransWest Express transmission project. And a three-month geotechnical survey campaign was set to commence, within SouthCoast Wind’s up to 2.4GW lease area off Massachusetts.
In Brazil, ArcelorMittal agreed to form a joint venture with Casa dos Ventos, whereby it will acquire a 55% stake in the 554MW Babilônia Centro. And in Chile, Colbun achieved mechanical completion of the first turbines at its 812MW Horizonte.
In Scotland, turbine installation commenced at SSE’s 443MW Viking and was completed at Vattenfall’s 240MW South Kyle. Elsewhere, CWP Europe and PowerChina Resources signed an investment agreement to build Serbia’s largest wind farm, the 300MW Vetrozelena.
In the offshore sector, SSE’s application to build the UK’s largest offshore wind farm, the up to 4.1GW Berwick Bank, was accepted for determination. Macquarie Asset Management agreed to sell stakes in eight UK offshore wind farms to Equitix, while financial close was achieved for the 882MW Moray West. Siemens Gamesa agreed to supply 107 x 14MW turbines to PGE and Ørsted, for the 1.5GW Baltica 2. And turbine installation was under way at the 759MW Hollandse Kust Noord.
Skyborn Renewables submitted a permit application for a 3.9GW wind farm off Sweden, while Hexicon’s and Mainstream Renewable Power’s joint venture, Freja Offshore, submitted an application for the 2.5GW Mareld. IberBlue Wind announced plans for a cross-border floating offshore wind development on the Spanish-Portuguese border. SSE submitted an application for a foreshore licence, in connection with its plans for an up to 1GW wind farm in the Atlantic Ocean off Ireland. And a final investment decision was taken for the 496MW Îles d’Yeu et Noirmoutier.
In Australia, construction began at the 756MW Golden Plains Stage One project. Plans were announced for the 400MW Moonlight Range. And turbine installation was under way at the 396MW Rye Park. Meanwhile, Fugro was contracted to undertake a geotechnical site investigation for the up to 2.2GW Star of the South project off Victoria. In China, the two-phase, 1.5GW Hainan CZ7 offshore development was approved. In Laos, $692m was secured for the 600MW Monsoon. In Japan, Vestas agreed to supply 25 V174-9.5 MW turbines to the 238MW Kitakyushu-Hibikinada offshore project. And in India, Siemens Gamesa agreed to supply 46 SG 3.6-145 turbines to ArcelorMittal, for a 166MW wind farm in Andhra Pradesh. Elsewhere, a $100m loan was secured for Red Sea Wind Energy, to fund its 500MW wind farm in the Gulf of Suez, Egypt.
Xinxin Wang, Insights Analyst
From 903GW at the end of 2022 and an estimated 920GW at present, our revised forecasts indicate the world as a whole being host to just over 1,534GW by the end of 2029.
Asia-Pacific’s 777.8GW will account for half of this total, Europe’s 391GW for a further quarter. The Americas’ 327.8GW will account for just over a fifth, with the MEA’s 38GW accounting for the remainder.
From an estimated 244.7GW at present, we continue to foresee Europe being host to 391GW by the end of 2029.
Germany’s end-2029 on- and offshore capacity totals are forecast at 71GW and 24.3GW, representing growth from the current 58.7GW and 8.4GW.
Capacity growth in Spain will see its end-2029 total having topped 38GW, with just over 2GW of this materialising in the offshore sector.
And the UK’s and France’s on- and offshore sectors are also expected to see further capacity growth over the outlook period, taking the UK’s end-2029 totals to 23.6GW and 31.9GW and France’s, to 29.6GW and 5.7GW.
From an estimated 165.5GW at present, we foresee North America’s total having reached 256GW by the end of the outlook period.
Around 83GW will be added in the USA over the 2023-29 period, taking its total to just over 225GW. Around 25GW of this will be offshore. Together, Texas, Iowa, Oklahoma and Kansas will continue to account for around half of the USA’s onshore total, throughout the outlook period.
In Canada, growth from the current 15.3GW to 20.3GW is forecast. And in Mexico, around 3GW of incremental capacity growth is expected between 2023 and 2029.
We estimate Asia-Pacific’s current total installed capacity at just under 450MW. By the end of the outlook period, we foresee this having risen to almost 778GW.
China’s end-2029 on- and offshore totals are forecast at 573GW and 63.5GW respectively, representing growth from the current 345.4GW and 32GW.
In India, we foresee growth from the current 42.5GW, to just over 61GW by 2029. And in Australia, we foresee a doubling of capacity, to around 22GW.
Elsewhere, we have upwardly revised our long term forecast for Vietnam, reflecting the addition to the pipeline of the newly announced Bình Ðinh developments. Planned for sites off Phù Cát, together they would add around 2GW to Vietnam’s offshore total.
Central & South America
Our forecasts for Central and South America are largely unchanged and we still expect the region’s total to have reached almost 72GW by the end of 2029.
In Brazil, capacity is forecast to have topped 40GW by the end of the outlook period, while Chile’s end-2029 total is expected to have reached just over 14GW. Growth in Argentina, meanwhile, will see its total having reached 6GW by then.
Middle East & Africa
From the current estimated total of 21.7GW, we foresee the MEA region being host to 38GW of wind power capacity by the end of 2029.
Turkey will add around 4GW over the outlook period, taking its end-2029 total to 16GW. South Africa’s total is forecast to have reached 5.3GW and Morocco’s, 4.9GW.
Egypt’s total is expected to double over the outlook period, reaching 3.6GW, while the ‘others’ in the region combined will account for the remaining 5.4GW of incremental capacity growth.
Download the report: Global Forecast May 2023