Project summary
David Carr, Data Editor
The end of the first quarter saw no let up in activity. In the USA, BluEarth Renewables acquired seven wind and solar projects from Ozone Renewables. North Carolina’s Department of Environmental Quality issued a permit for Apex Clean Energy’s 189MW Timbermill. And RWE and Entergy signed an MoU, focused on offshore wind in the Gulf of Mexico. In Canada, Innagreen and Awasis Nehiyawewini Energy Development Limited Partnership acquired Saskatchewan’s largest wind project, RES’ 200MW Bekevar. And six projects were set to be awarded PPAs, having been successful in Hydro-Québec’s tenders.
In Brazil, Vestas secured a 1.3GW order from Casa dos Ventos, while Casa dos Ventos and Braskem signed a PPA, linked to the 534MW Rio do Vento expansion and the 202MW Umari. Engie began the commercial operation of the first 6.2MW turbine at its 434MW Santo Agostinho complex. And Petrobras and Equinor signed a letter of intent, regarding seven offshore projects that together, could provide up to 14.5GW.
Activity remained brisk in Europe, too. In Sweden, Vattenfall was consulting local stakeholders on its plans for the 2.6GW Storlandet. In Finland, Arise agreed to acquire a 51% stake in Pohjan Voima and Valorem acquired four projects that together, will provide over 600MW. And in Serbia, Zhejiang Windey was appointed preferred turbine supplier to Fintel’s 854MW Maestrale Ring development.
In the offshore sector, thirteen projects were offered Exclusivity Agreements in Crown Estate Scotland’s INTOG (Innovation and Targeted Oil & Gas) leasing round. Siemens Gamesa announced a firm order from ScottishPower Renewables, for 95 SG 14-236 DD turbines for the 1.4GW East Anglia Three. The SSE-Marubeni-CIP consortium submitted the up to 3.6GW Ossian’s EIA scoping report to Marine Scotland. EDF and Maple Power - a jv between Enbridge and Canada Pension Plan Investment Board - were awarded the rights to develop the 1GW Centre Manche 1 off Normandy. And with a 49.9% stake sold and €600m secured from the EIB, EnBW took a final investment decision on its €2.4bn, 960MW He Dreiht. OX2 initiated the development of the 1.9GW Neptunus offshore energy hub off Sweden. Ørsted’s 1.5GW Skåne was granted a Natura 2000 permit. And the Dutch Government announced plans for large-scale offshore hydrogen production in the Ten noorden van de Waddeneilanden Wind Farm Zone.
Elsewhere, Ørsted took a final investment decision on its 920MW Greater Changhua 2b and 4 projects in the Taiwan Strait. BrightNight and ACEN formed a $250m partnership, focused on a 1.2GW Indian renewables portfolio. In China, the 550MW Mile West and 500MW Da'an were newly online. In South Africa, Red Rocket placed a 373MW order with Vestas. And a BlackRock-managed fund was set to acquire a 31.25% stake in the 310MW Lake Turkana in Kenya.
Monthly forecast
Xinxin Wang, Insights Analyst
From an upwardly revised end-2022 estimate of 903GW, we expect to see the world as a whole being host to just over 1,533GW of wind power capacity by the end of 2029.
With 776.2GW, Asia-Pacific alone will account for half of this total, with Europe’s 391.4GW accounting for a quarter.
North America’s 256.3GW will represent a 17% share of the 2029 global total, while Central & South America’s 71.7GW will account for almost 5%. The MEA’s 37.6GW will account for the remainder.
Europe
From an upwardly revised estimated total of 242.8MW at the end of 2022, we foresee Europe being host to just over 391GW of on- and offshore wind capacity by 2029.
Around 13GW will be added onshore in Germany between 2023 and 2029, while Germany’s offshore capacity is expected to triple over the same period, to 24.3GW.
Growth in Spain will see its end-2029 total having reached 38.5GW, with 2.4GW of this materialising in the nascent Spanish offshore sector.
Further growth in both the UK’s and France’s on- and offshore sectors is also expected over the outlook period. Italy, Sweden, Poland, Denmark, Ireland and the Netherlands are also poised for capacity growth, not least, in their offshore sectors.
North America
From an upwardly revised end-2022 total of 164.4GW, we expect to see North America being host to just over 256GW of wind power capacity by 2029.
In the USA, growth from 142GW to just over 225GW is forecast. Around 25GW of this will be offshore. Onshore, growth in Texas, Iowa, Oklahoma and Kansas will continue to see those four states accounting for around half of the USA’s onshore total.
In Canada, we expect to see 5GW of incremental capacity growth to 2029, taking its total to just over 20GW. Much of Canada’s capacity growth will occur outside of Ontario and Quebec.
And in Mexico, we foresee capacity having topped 10GW by 2029. It currently hosts 7.3GW.
Asia-Pacific*
From just under 437GW at the end of 2022, we foresee growth in Asia-Pacific’s installed wind capacity taking the region’s total to just over 776GW by the end of 2029.
China alone will account for 636.5GW of this, with its on- and offshore totals expected to have reached 573GW and 63.5GW respectively, by the end of the outlook period.
India is forecast to add almost 20GW between 2023 and 2029, taking its total to 61GW, while Australia’s capacity is expected to double, to 22GW.
Elsewhere, significant capacity growth is also forecast for Japan, Vietnam, South Korea and Taiwan. Their offshore sectors in particular are set to account for much of the capacity growth in the latter part of the outlook period.
Central & South America
From an upwardly revised 37.4GW at the end of 2022, we expect to see Central & South America being host to 71.7GW by the end of 2029.
Brazil’s end-2029 capacity is forecast to have topped 40GW, representing 15GW of growth from the end of 2022.
In Chile, 10GW of incremental capacity is forecast over the outlook period, taking its total to 14.3GW. And growth in Argentina should see its total having reached almost 6GW by 2029.
Middle East & Africa
From 21.7GW at the end of 2022, we foresee the Middle East & Africa’s total installed capacity having reached 37.6GW by the end of 2029.
Almost 4GW will be added in Turkey, taking its end-2029 total to 15.8GW. Growth in South Africa and Morocco will see their totals having reached 5.2GW and 4.9GW by the end of the outlook period, while Egypt’s total installed capacity is expected to double, to 3.6GW.
