David Carr, Data Editor
Recent weeks have seen no let up in the pace of activity. In the USA, NextEra Energy’s 1GW Great Prairie Wind and 500MW Young Wind were reported as having been brought online in Q4 2022. Itochu reached an agreement with Fengate Asset Management, to invest in the under construction 160MW Prairie Switch Wind in Texas. Shell’s and Ocean Winds’ 1.2GW Mayflower Wind was renamed SouthCoast Wind, while Hellenic Cables agreed to supply Revolution Wind’s and South Fork Wind’s inter-array cables. And in Brazil, EDPR inaugurated 580MW in Rio Grande do Norte.
In Scotland, deliveries of turbine components to the 443MW Viking project site commenced. In Spain, GE agreed to supply 22 x 6.1MW turbines to Repsol, for six wind farms in the 860MW Delta II development. Elsewhere, Renewable Power Capital and Tundra Advisory announced a joint venture, focused on the development of up to 1GW of Polish onshore wind capacity.
In the offshore sector, the Danish Government outlined its intention to put out to tender a total of 9GW of offshore wind capacity this year. EnBW and Equinor announced their intention to jointly pursue opportunities in the German offshore sector, while CIP announced that it had joined NorSea and Parkwind in targeting the Norwegian floating sector. The Swedish Government granted final approval to Vattenfall’s 640MW Kriegers Flak. And Metsähallitus and Suomen Hyötytuuli announced the signing of the lease agreement for the Tahkoluoto extension project. In Poland, PGE provisionally secured two further seabed leases in the Baltic Sea. In Portugal, Copenhagen Offshore Partners announced its plans for the 2GW Nortada floating project, while IberBlue Wind announced its plans for a 990MW development. Galileo and Hope Group announced plans for the 1.1GW Barium Bay floating project off Italy. And Ferrovial and RWE signed an MoU, focused on floating projects in Spanish waters.
In Australia, Tilt Renewables acquired a 50% stake in the 1.2GW Forest Wind, while Ingka Investments agreed to acquire a 15% stake in the 756MW first stage of TagEnergy’s Golden Plains. And ACEN's up to 900MW Robbins Island project in Tasmania received local council approval. BlueFloat Energy announced plans to develop the 1.7GW Eastern Rise. EDF Renewables acquired the Newcastle Offshore Wind floating project. And the Department of Defence said it had no objections to the proposed 1.65GW Hunter Coast. But local fishermen voiced concerns over BlueFloat Energy’s proposed 1,155MW Southern Winds.
Elsewhere, the 500MW Shandong Peninsula South V was commissioned off China. BP acquired a 55% stake in Deep Wind Offshore’s up to 6GW development portfolio in South Korea. And Northland Power secured Electricity Business Licences (EBLs) for its 1GW Dado Ocean and 600MW Bobae projects. Meanwhile, TotalEnergies and Corio Generation signed a joint venture partnership, to develop the 2GW Formosa 3 offshore wind farms in the Taiwan Strait.
Xinxin Wang, Insights Analyst
From an estimated 896.5GW at the end of 2022, we expect to see the world as a whole having installed almost 1,526GW by 2029.
Asia-Pacific’s 774.4GW will account for half of this total, Europe’s 388.3GW for a further quarter. The Americas’ 325.7GW will represent just over a fifth of the end-2029 global total, with the MEA’s 37.4GW accounting for the remainder.
From 240GW at the end of 2022, we still expect to see Europe’s total on- and offshore wind capacity having topped 388GW by the end of 2029.
Germany’s onshore total will have exceeded 70GW by then, while German waters will be host to just over 24GW.
In Spain, around 6.4GW of onshore capacity will be added between 2023 and 2029, taking its total to just over 36GW. In addition, 2.4GW is expected to be in place in Spanish waters by the end of the outlook period.
The UK’s on- and offshore totals are forecast to have reached 23.5GW and 33.9GW by 2029, representing growth from the current 14.4GW and 15.9GW. And in France, around 9GW will be added onshore, alongside just over 5GW offshore.
For North America as a whole, we foresee total installed capacity having reached 256GW by the end of 2029. This would represent growth from the current 164GW.
In the USA, growth to 225GW is forecast, around 25GW of which will be offshore. Incremental capacity in Texas, Iowa, Oklahoma and Kansas is expected to be around 15.7GW, 4.8GW, 2.6GW and 2.9GW, respectively, while the ‘other’ US states combined will add around 32GW over the 2023-29 period.
In Canada, we foresee growth to just over 20GW by the end of the outlook period, up from the current 15GW. And in Mexico, we expect around 3GW of incremental capacity, taking its total to 10.6GW.
We still expect Asia-Pacific to be host to just over 774GW of wind capacity by the end of 2029. The region’s current total is just over 435GW.
China alone will account for 635GW of this: 571GW onshore and 64GW offshore. Its current on- and offshore totals are around 332GW and 32GW.
Growth in India will see its total installed capacity having reached 61GW by the end of the outlook period, around 19GW more than the current total. And Australia’s total will have more than doubled by 2029, to just under 22GW.
Elsewhere, steady growth in Japan’s and Vietnam’s on- and offshore sectors is forecast, as well as in South Korea’s and Taiwan’s offshore sectors.
Central & South America
From an estimated 35.8GW at the end of 2022, we foresee Central & South America being host to around 69.7GW of wind capacity by the end of 2029.
Brazil alone will account for 38.5GW of this, with Chile and Argentina accounting for around 14GW and 6.2GW, respectively.
Only modest capacity growth is expected in Uruguay, taking its end-2029 total to 2GW, while between them, the ‘others’ in the region are expected to add just over 6GW over the outlook period.
Middle East & Africa
For the MEA region, we continue to expect to see growth from 21.6GW at the end of 2022, to just over 37GW by the end of 2029.
Turkey will add around 4GW over the outlook period, taking its end-2029 total to 15.4GW. South Africa’s total is expected to have reached 5.4GW by then, while Morocco and Egypt should be host to 5GW and 3.8GW, respectively.
Together, the ‘other’ countries in the region will add over 5GW of capacity between 2023 and 2029.
Download the report: Global Forecast March 2023