David Carr, Data Editor
The new year got off to a busy start, with new capacity coming online, contracts being signed and assets changing hands.
In the USA, Invenergy and RETA agreed to partner on the 4GW New Mexico North Path transmission project. Duke Energy announced the start of commercial operations at its 207MW Ledyard Windpower development in Iowa. And Hannon Armstrong announced that it had acquired a stake in the 218MW Prevailing Wind in South Dakota. Fugro commenced survey work in the New York Bight and Rise Light & Power acquired a stake in an offshore project. In Canada, Siemens Gamesa agreed to supply turbines to a 495MW development. And in Brazil, BNDES agreed to finance part of Pan American Energy’s 423MW Novo Horizonte complex.
Activity was brisk in Europe too, where H2Carrier and Anori were eyeing 1.5GW of wind capacity in Greenland. Nordex announced that 173 of its turbines had been installed and commissioned in Germany last year. It was also in line to supply Enefit Green’s 255MW Sopi-Tootsi project in Estonia. In Sweden, Arise entered into an agreement with Persson Invest regarding development rights. In Finland, the EIA programme for Fortum's up to 380MW Lamminneva project was set to be made publicly available. And In Serbia, EPS outlined its plans for two 500MW wind farms.
Ørsted announced that it had applied for permits to build four additional wind farms off Sweden. OX2 initiated the development of the 1.4GW Tyrsky in the Gulf of Bothnia, while the Crown Estate announced the signing of Agreements for Lease for six projects off England and Wales. PGE provisionally secured the rights to develop further capacity in the Baltic Sea. Eolus and PNE were set to co-develop the 1GW Kurzéme, while RWE and Siemens Gamesa signed a Preferred Supplier Agreement for the 1GW Thor. Elsewhere, CIP acquired 50% of Statkraft’s 2.2GW Irish offshore wind portfolio. And EEW SPC agreed to supply 100 monopile foundations to RWE’s 1.4GW Sofia.
In China, the 502MW Shenquan II offshore wind farm was newly online, as was the 500MW Xinghe, 300MW Bayannuorigong and 100MW Urad Middle Banner in Inner Mongolia. In Australia, Spark Renewables submitted a scoping report for its 1GW Mallee project. And surveys were completed at the sites of Windlab’s 1GW Wongalee and 800MW Prairie projects. Elsewhere, Masdar signed joint development agreements with the State Oil Company of the Republic of Azerbaijan, related to onshore wind and solar projects, as well as integrated offshore wind and green hydrogen projects, with a total capacity of 4GW. It also signed an agreement related to 1GW of wind capacity in Kazakhstan. And in Uzbekistan, turbine installation was set to commence at the 500MW Zarafshan, following the shipment of 111 Goldwind turbines by freight train from China.
Xinxin Wang, Insights Analyst
From an estimated 896.5GW at the end of 2022, we expect to see the world as a whole being host to just over 1,524GW by the end of 2029.
Between them, Asia-Pacific and Europe will account for just over three-quarters of this total, with the Americas accounting for over a fifth and the Middle East & Africa, the remainder.
From an estimated 240GW at the end of 2022, we foresee Europe’s total on- and offshore wind capacity having topped 388GW by the end of 2029.
We expect Germany’s on- and offshore totals to have reached 70.7GW and 24.3GW by then, representing growth from the current 58.2GW and 8.1GW.
Spain is expected to see 6.4GW of additional onshore capacity by 2029, taking its total to just over 36GW, while the nascent Spanish offshore sector should account for 2.4GW by then.
And in the UK, the on- and offshore totals are expected to have reached 23.5GW and 33.9GW by the end of the outlook period.
From an estimated 164GW at the end of 2022, we foresee North America being host to just over 255GW by the end of 2029.
In the USA, growth from the current 141GW to just under 225GW is forecast, with around 25GW of this expected to be offshore. On a state-by-state basis, Texas, Iowa, Oklahoma and Kansas are expected to have added 15.7GW, 4.8GW, 2.6GW and 2.4GW respectively, by the end of the outlook period.
Canada’s total is expected to have topped 20GW by 2029, up from the current 15.1GW, while Mexico’s total is forecast at 10.6GW, 3GW more than it currently hosts.
From around 435GW at the end of 2022, we expect to see the Asia-Pacific region’s total installed capacity having exceeded 774GW by the end of 2029.
China will see its onshore total having reached 571.3GW by then, while its waters will be host to 64GW.
India’s total will have reached almost 61GW by 2029, representing around 19GW of incremental capacity, while growth to 21.8GW is forecast for Australia. It currently hosts around 10GW.
Much of the region’s remaining capacity growth over the 2023-29 period will appear in Japan’s, Vietnam’s, South Korea’s and Taiwan’s offshore sectors.
Central & South America
At the end of 2022, we estimate Central & South America’s total installed wind capacity at 35.8GW. By the end of the outlook period in 2029, we expect this to have risen to 69.4GW.
Brazil is expected to add almost 15GW between 2023 and 2029, taking its total to 38.5GW, while around 10GW of incremental capacity growth is forecast for Chile.
In Argentina, growth to 6GW is forecast. Elsewhere, only modest growth is expected in Uruguay, while the ‘others’ in the region will account for just over 6GW of incremental capacity.
Middle East & Africa
From an estimated 21.6GW at the end of 2022, we foresee the MEA region’s total installed wind capacity having topped 37GW by the end of 2029.
Turkey’s total is forecast to rise from 11.7GW to 15.4GW, while South Africa’s is expected to have reached 5.2GW by the end of the outlook period.
Our forecasts for Morocco, Egypt and the ‘others’ in the region are unchanged and by 2029, we expect their total installed capacities to have reached 5GW, 3.8GW and 7.8GW, respectively.