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Windpower Intelligence Global Forecast: January 2023

Below we present our latest global capacity forecasts to 2029.

Project summary

David Carr, Data Editor

The last few weeks of 2022 saw no let up in activity. In the USA, WEC Energy Group brought into service its 300MW Thunderhead Wind Energy Center in Nebraska. And in Iowa, MidAmerican Energy completed the 207MW repowering of its Eclipse wind farm, having completed its 484.2MW Rolling Hills repowering project in October. Elsewhere, Boralex completed the acquisition from EDF, of 50% interests in five wind farms in Texas and New Mexico. And five companies were successful in the BOEM’s auction for five leases off California. In Brazil, Renova Energía began full commercial operations at its 424.5MW Alto Sertão III complex. And Vestas secured a 288MW order from Engie, for the 846MW Serra do Assuruá. In Chile, Goldwind agreed to supply 57 x 6MW turbines to Engie, for the 342MW Lomas de Taltal, while FairWind was contracted to install the 778MW Horizonte’s turbines.

Activity remained brisk in Europe, too. In Spain, environmental impact statements were issued for Forestalia’s planned developments in Aragon. In Romania, Low Carbon and Actis-backed Rezolv Energy were set to develop 600MW of wind capacity. And in France, nineteen wind projects were successful in the latest renewables tender. In Norway, Hydro, Eviny and Zephyr were set to explore the possibility of developing the up to 300MW Snøheia Industrikraft wind farm. And in Sweden, the Nordic Investment Bank agreed a loan to aid the construction of the 277MW Kölvallen. Meanwhile, Vattenfall announced a capacity increase for the Norfolk Offshore Wind Zone, to around 4.2GW. It was also appointed by Metsähallitus, to build and operate the 1.3GW Korsnäs off Finland. Shell and Eneco secured the rights to develop the 760MW Hollandse Kust West VI, while Octopus Energy signed a PPA with Shell, for up to 2.4 TWh / year from Dogger Bank. Vattenfall signed a contract with DEME Group and LS Cable & System, for the 1.8GW Norfolk Vanguard’s export cables, while DEME was also contracted to install the 882MW Moray West’s foundations. And Ocean Winds announced a capacity reservation agreement with Navantia-Windar, for the manufacture of 62 jackets for the 496MW Dieppe-le Tréport.

Elsewhere, Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Energy announced that 18 organisations had pre-qualified to bid in the 1.8GW wind portion of the upcoming 3.3GW wind and solar auction. ACWA Power announced that it had signed agreements for the 1.5GW Kungrad in Uzbekistan. And in Kazakhstan, Total Eren signed an agreement with Samruk-Kazyna and KazMunayGas, to develop the 1GW Mirny. In China, a number of on- and offshore projects were newly online. In Taiwan, ten offshore projects were awarded to six developers. 

And in Australia, Major Project Status was awarded to the 2.2GW Star of the South, while Equinor joined forces with Nexsphere to develop the 1GW Bass Offshore Wind Energy project. 

Monthly forecast

Xinxin Wang, Insights Analyst

Below, we present our initial forecasts for global wind capacity for the seven-year period to the end of 2029. 

From an estimated 896GW at the end of 2022, we foresee the world as a whole being host to 1,523GW by then.

Asia-Pacific’s 774.1GW will account for half of this, Europe’s 387.5GW for a further quarter. North America’s 255.3GW, Central & South America’s 69.3GW and the Middle East and Africa’s 37.1GW will account for the remainder.

Europe

At the end of 2022, we estimate Europe’s on- and offshore wind capacity totals at 207GW and 32.2GW. By the end of 2029, we expect the on- and offshore total to have reached 387.5GW.

Germany’s onshore total is expected to have topped 70GW by then, representing growth from the current 58.2GW. Meanwhile, Germany’s offshore total is forecast to triple over the outlook period, to just over 24GW by the end of 2029.    

In Spain, around 6.4GW of onshore capacity is expected to be added over the next seven years, with 2.4GW of offshore capacity also expected to materialise. By 2029, Spain’s total will have reached 38.5GW.

The UK’s on- and offshore totals currently stand at an estimated 14.3GW and 15.9GW. By 2029, these are expected to have reached 23.4GW and 33.8GW.  

And in France, around 9GW of onshore capacity growth is expected over the outlook period, with just over 5GW expected to be added offshore.

North America

For North America as a whole, we expect to see 255GW in place by the end of 2029. The region’s current total is estimated at 164GW. 

The USA’s capacity is expected to have reached almost 225GW by 2029, up from the current 141.4GW. Around 25GW of this 2029 total will be offshore.  

On a state-by-state basis, we foresee Texas’ total having topped 54GW by the end of the outlook period. It currently hosts around 38.4GW. 

In Iowa, Oklahoma and Kansas meanwhile, growth to 17.5GW, 14.8GW and 10.6GW is forecast. Their current totals are 12.7GW, 12.2GW and 8.2GW, respectively.

In Canada, we foresee around 5GW of incremental capacity growth, taking the end-2029 total to 20GW. And in Mexico, growth to 10.4GW is expected, up from the current 7.6GW. 

Asia-Pacific*

At the end of 2022, we estimate Asia-Pacific’s total installed capacity at just over 435GW. By the end of 2029, we expect this to have topped 774GW.  

China’s onshore total is expected to have reached 571GW by then, while Chinese waters will be host to 64GW. China’s current on- and offshore totals are estimated at 332.5GW and 31.9GW. 

In India, growth from 42GW to almost 61GW is forecast for the 2023-29 period, while Australia’s capacity will more than double, to just under 61GW.

Elsewhere, marked growth is also expected in Japan’s, Vietnam’s, South Korea’s and Taiwan’s offshore sectors, particularly over the latter half of the outlook period.

Central & South America

Our end-2022 estimate for Central & South America’s total installed capacity is 35.8GW. By the end of 2029, we expect to see this having risen to 69.3GW.  

In Brazil, we foresee 14.5GW of incremental capacity, taking its total to 38.4GW by the end of the outlook period. 

In Chile, we expect to see significant growth, to 13.8GW by 2029. Its current total is just under 4GW. In Argentina, growth from 3.5GW to 6GW is forecast. 

But in Uruguay, only 0.3GW is expected to be added between 2023 and 2029, taking its total to 2GW.

Middle East & Africa

From an estimated 21.6GW at the end of 2022, we foresee the MEA region being host to just over 37GW of installed wind power by the end of 2029.  

In Turkey alone, growth to 15.4GW is forecast, from the current 11.7GW. In South Africa, we expect to see more modest growth over the outlook period, from 3.6GW to 5GW. Growth to 5GW is also forecast for Morocco. It currently hosts 1.9GW.    

Egypt’s total is tipped to almost double over the 2023-29 period, to 3.8GW, while the ‘others’ in the region will account for 7.8GW between them by the end of 2029.

Download the report: Global Forecast January 2023

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