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Windpower Intelligence Global Forecast: December 2022

Below we present our latest global capacity forecasts to 2028.

Project summary

David Carr, Data Editor

November saw no let-up in the pace of activity in many of the main wind markets. In the USA, Pattern Energy’s 3.5GW SunZia Wind projects received approvals from the New Mexico Public Regulation Commission. NextEra’s 750MW Clearwater in Montana began supplying Puget Sound Energy. Vestas received a 300MW order from Apex Clean Energy for Goose Creek Wind. Swift Current Energy closed project financing for its 197MW Castle Gap Wind, while Fengate Asset Management acquired Triple Oak Power’s ready-to-build 160MW Prairie Switch Wind. NextEra Energy Partners was set to acquire a 49% stake in a 1.5GW renewables portfolio and 100% stakes in three operating wind farms. And Public Service Company of Oklahoma was seeking approval for the acquisition of 265MW in Texas and 288MW in Kansas. Meanwhile, Sempra Infrastructure and Silicon Valley Power entered into a 20-year PPA, linked to the proposed 300MW Cimarrón project in Baja California, Mexico. In Brazil, construction commenced at the 423MW Novo Horizonte complex, while start-up of all 93 turbines at the 409MW Ventos do Piauí II and III was completed. And in Chile, Engie began permitting for the 336.6MW Pampa Fidelia project.

Activity was brisk in Europe, too. BayWa announced its entry to the Finnish market, via a 50% stake in a joint venture with Exilion. In Norway, operations commenced at the 400MW Øyfjellet. And in Scotland, concrete pours were completed at all 103 of the 443MW Viking’s turbine bases. In the offshore sector, RWE was successful in the tender for the 760MW Hollandse Kust West VII, while turbine installation was completed at its 342MW Kaskasi. The 480MW Saint-Nazaire - France’s first commercial-scale offshore wind farm - became fully operational. And Equinor announced its interest in developing gigawatt-scale floating offshore wind in the Celtic Sea off Wales and south-west England. But SSE announced that construction delays meant commercial operations at the 1,075MW Seagreen were now expected in summer 2023.


Elsewhere, plans for a significant expansion of wind capacity in Egypt were outlined. In Australia, Vestas agreed to supply 122 V162-6.2 MW turbines to the 756MW Golden Plains Stage One, while the first tower sections were installed at the 396MW Rye Park project site. And in New Zealand, a consortium of BlueFloat Energy, Energy Estate and Elemental Group announced plans for up to 1.4GW of wind capacity off South Auckland and Waikato. Meanwhile, the 500MW Jiazi I was brought online off Guangdong, China and Mingyang agreed to supply 50 MySE 14-260 turbines to a 700MW part of the 1GW Yangjiang Fanshi I. In the Taiwan Strait, first power was delivered from the 589MW Changfang Xidao wind farms. And in the Philippines, Shell and Alternergy were set to co-develop the 1GW Calavite Passage offshore wind farm, with Shell having acquired a 40% stake in the venture.

Monthly forecast

Xinxin Wang, Insights Analyst

Our current estimate of global installed capacity is 875GW. By the end of 2028, we foresee this having topped 1,401GW.

Asia-Pacific’s 698.3GW will account for half of this, Europe’s 358.9GW for a further quarter. Between them, North America’s 242.1GW and Central & South America’s 64.1GW will account for just over a fifth of the end-2028 global total, with the MEA’s 37.8GW accounting for the remainder 

Europe

From the current 237GW, we foresee Europe having installed around 359GW of on- and offshore wind capacity by the end of the outlook period. 

Between them, Germany, Spain, the UK and France will account for almost three-fifths of this end-2028 total. Onshore, they are expected to have added around 13GW, 6.6GW, 8GW and 8.8GW respectively over the 2022-28 period, while offshore additions of 13.8GW, 2GW, 17.2GW and 5GW are forecast.

Elsewhere, marked growth in Sweden’s onshore capacity is forecast, in addition to Poland’s, Denmark’s, the Netherlands’, Ireland’s and Italy’s offshore sectors. As a result, by the end of 2028, Europe’s offshore capacity is expected to account for a quarter of the region’s total (on- and offshore) installed capacity. It currently accounts for around one eighth.

North America

From an estimated 162GW at present, we continue to expect to see North America’s total installed capacity having topped 242GW by the end of 2028.

The USA’s end-2028 total is forecast at 213GW, around 20GW of which will be offshore. On a state-by-state basis, Texas, Iowa, Oklahoma and Kansas combined will continue to account for almost half of the USA’s onshore total. 

In Canada, we foresee growth from the current 14.8GW, to just under 20GW by the end of the outlook period. And in Mexico, we expect to see almost 10GW being in place by then.

Asia-Pacific*

Our forecasts for Asia-Pacific are largely unchanged and we still expect the region’s total installed capacity to have topped 698GW by the end of the outlook period.

China’s end-2028 on- and offshore totals are forecast at 518.8GW and 49.1GW, representing growth from the current 323.5GW and 28.7GW.

In India, growth to 60GW is forecast, around 20GW up on the current total. And in Australia, capacity will approximately double by the end of 2028, to just under 20GW.

Central & South America

From an estimated 35GW at present, we continue to forecast significant growth in Central & South America’s installed capacity over the outlook period, to just over 64GW by the end of 2028. 

Brazil’s capacity is expected to have topped 35GW by then. It currently hosts around 23.5GW. Growth in Chile and Argentina is also forecast, from 4GW and 3.3GW at present, to 12.7GW and 5.6GW by the end of 2028.

Uruguay’s total is expected to have edged up to 2GW by the end of the outlook period, while between them, the ‘others’ in the region are forecast to add almost 6GW over the 2022-28 period.

Middle East & Africa

Our forecasts for the MEA region are largely unchanged and we still expect to see just under 38GW in place by the end of 2028. The region currently hosts around 20.6GW.

Capacity growth in Turkey will see its total having topped 15GW by the end of the outlook period, around 4GW more than at present.   

Each of South Africa’s and Morocco’s totals are expected to have exceeded 5GW by the end of 2028. They currently host around 3.6GW and 2GW, respectively. Meanwhile, a threefold increase in Egypt’s total is forecast, to 4.7GW.

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