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Windpower Intelligence Global Forecast: November 2022

Below we present our latest global capacity forecasts to 2028.

Project summary

David Carr, Data Editor

October saw a continued steady stream of activity. In the USA, Atlantic Shores Offshore Wind appointed Vestas as the preferred supplier to its 1.5GW project off New Jersey. And Iberdrola announced an increase in Kitty Hawk’s planned capacity, from 2.5GW to 3.5GW. Onshore, the Maine Public Utilities Commission selected two projects to promote renewable energy development in northern Maine: a 345kV transmission line and Longroad Energy's 1,000MW King Pine. Ørsted sold a 50% stake in an 862MW portfolio to Energy Capital Partners. Clearway and PacifiCorp finalised 25-year PPAs, linked to the 280MW Two Rivers Wind and 152MW Cedar Creek Wind. And five of Walmart’s suppliers agreed PPAs with Ørsted’s 201MW Sunflower Wind. The 336MW Escalade was inaugurated. Construction began at the 202MW Indiana Crossroads II. And InfraRed Capital Partners agreed to acquire 49% stakes in the 149MW Deerfield, 200MW Odell and 202MW Sugar Creek and an 80% stake in the 175MW Blue Hill in Canada. In Brazil, TotalEnergies and Casa dos Ventos agreed to jointly develop, build and operate Casa Dos Ventos’ renewables portfolio, while Enel announced the start of construction at the 399MW Lagoa dos Ventos V. And in Peru, concessions were granted to Ignis Energy, to carry out tests for two up to 450MW projects.

Activity also remained brisk in Europe, where the Welsh Government announced plans for a publicly-owned renewables developer. Nexta Capital Partners and Octopus Energy announced a target of establishing 1.1GW of new Italian wind, solar and energy storage capacity. The first turbine at the 372MW Björnberget in Sweden commenced commercial operations. And in Scotland, EDF was given the go-ahead for its up to 256MW Clash Gour. Meanwhile, Ørsted and CIP agreed to partner on 5.2GW of capacity in Danish waters. Plenitude transferred its 20% stake in the 3.6GW Dogger Bank A, B and C to Vårgrønn, its joint venture with HitecVision. The 2022 offshore surveys for the 2GW West of Orkney project were completed. RWE announced that it had submitted bids for five areas in the Polish Baltic Sea. And AvenHexicon obtained priority rights over two areas in Italian waters. In the Kattegat, Clinton Marine Survey completed a geophysical survey for OX2. Cloudberry announced its plans for an 800MW project off Sweden’s east coast. And BayWa submitted an application for an up to 600MW floating project off Portugal.

Elsewhere, Enercon agreed to supply 240 E-138 EP3 E2 turbines to projects in Turkey, while Siemens Gamesa agreed to supply 73 SG 14-222 DD turbines to the 1,044MW Hai Long projects in the Taiwan Strait. In Australia, Vena Energy unveiled its plans for the 2GW Blue Marlin. And Telstra signed a PPA with Ark Energy, linked to the under construction 923MW MacIntyre. Beijing Energy's 1.4GW Ke'erqin in Inner Mongolia was granted the permission to build. And in South Korea, Deep Wind Offshore secured sites for its planned 1GW Admiral Lee and 1GW Abalone developments.

Monthly forecast

Xinxin Wang, Insights Analyst

At present, we estimate the world as a whole to be host to 869GW of wind power capacity. By the end of 2028, we foresee this having topped 1,402GW. 

With just under 699GW, Asia-Pacific will account for almost half of the end-2028 global total, Europe’s 359.4GW for a quarter and North America’s 242.1GW for one sixth. 

While capacity growth is also expected in Central and South America and the Middle East and Africa, their percentage shares of the global total will remain low, at less than 5% and 3%, respectively.

Europe

From 234.5GW at present, we foresee Europe’s total installed capacity having topped 359GW by the end of 2028.

Germany’s on- and offshore capacity is expected to have reached 69.1GW and 21.9GW by then. The UK’s end-2028 on- and offshore totals are forecast at 22.2GW and 29.8GW. And France’s are forecast at 28.1GW and 5.4GW. 

In Spain, onshore capacity is expected to have reached around 35GW by the end of the outlook period, while 2GW will have been installed in Spanish waters.

North America

For the region as a whole, we foresee total installed capacity having topped 242GW by the end of the outlook period. Between them, the USA, Canada and Mexico currently host an estimated 161.6GW. 

In the USA, we expect to see just over 213GW in place by 2028, around 20GW of which will be offshore. On a state-by-state basis, we continue to expect to see Texas, Iowa, Oklahoma and Kansas being host to 52.8GW, 16.5GW, 14GW and 10.8GW respectively by the end of the outlook period. 

Elsewhere, we have raised our end-2028 onshore forecast for the ‘other’ U.S. states combined, reflecting our expectation that the re-activated 1GW King Pine development in Maine will come online by the end of the outlook period.    

In Canada, we expect to see capacity having reached almost 20GW by the end of 2028. And in Mexico, we foresee around 9.5GW being in place by then.

Asia-Pacific*

For Asia-Pacific, we continue to expect to see just over 698GW in place by the end of 2028. 

China alone will account for just over four-fifths of this, with its on- and offshore totals expected to have reached 518.6GW and 49.1GW respectively by the end of the outlook period. 

In India, we foresee just over 60GW being in place by the end of 2028, around 20GW more than the country’s current total. 

And in Australia, we expect to see capacity approximately doubling over the 2022-28 period, to 20GW.

Central & South America

From 34.4GW at present, we expect total installed capacity in Central and South America to have topped 64GW by the end of 2028. 

Growth in Brazil’s capacity will see its total having reached just over 35GW by then. It is currently host to 23GW. 

For Chile, we have raised our incremental capacity forecast, reflecting the addition to the pipeline of Engie’s 194.4MW project in Pemuco, Ñuble. We now expect Chile’s capacity to have reached 12.7GW by the end of the outlook period. 

We have also raised our long-term incremental capacity forecast for the ‘other’ countries in the region, largely reflecting the addition of the newly announced 450MW Violeta and 450MW Quercus developments in Peru.

Middle East & Africa

From an estimated 20.6GW at present, we expect the MEA region to be host to just under 38GW by the end of the outlook period. 

Turkey’s total is expected to have exceeded 15GW by then, up from the current 11GW. South Africa’s will have reached 5.5GW by 2028, while Morocco’s will have topped 5GW. 

In Egypt, an approximate tripling of capacity is forecast over the outlook period, to 4.7GW. And between them, the ‘other’ MEA countries will account for the remaining 4.8GW of 2022-28 regional capacity growth. 

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