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Windpower Intelligence Global Forecast: October 2022

Below we present our latest global capacity forecasts to 2028.

Project summary

David Carr, Data Editor

September saw several large turbine purchase agreements announced, new capacity being commissioned and assets changing hands. In the USA, Talen Energy and Pattern Energy announced plans for the 600MW Silverthorn in Montana. GE agreed to supply Scout Clean Energy’s 200MW Sweetland in South Dakota. And Siemens Gamesa secured a firm order for the 924MW Sunrise Wind. In Brazil, Vestas agreed to supply the 540MW first phase of Engie’s 846MW Serra do Assuruá, while CGT Eletrosul began construction of the 302MW Coxilha Negra. And in Chile, Colbún applied for an environmental permit for its 472.5MW Junquillos project.

Several European assets changed hands. Siemens Gamesa completed the sale to SSE of 3.8GW of onshore projects, while Ørsted completed its acquisition of Ostwind. Innergex acquired the remaining 30.45% stake in its 324.2MW French portfolio. Actis-owned Rezolv Energy agreed to buy a 51% stake in the 450MW Vis Viva project in Romania. And RES agreed the sale to Prime Capital, of its 290MW Lycksele portfolio in Sweden. Ørsted completed the divestment of a 50% stake in the 1.3GW Hornsea 2. Partners Group agreed the sale of a 20% stake in the 731.5MW Borssele III & IV. And Iberdrola agreed the sale of a 49% stake in the 350MW Wikinger.

In Norway, all 72 turbines at the 400MW Øyfjellet were energised. In Finland, the 211MW Piiparinmäki was officially opened. And in Sweden, SR Energy’s 202MW Tvinnesheda was brought online. Elsewhere, Aquaterra Energy and Seawind Ocean Technology announced an agreement to co-develop “the world’s largest offshore floating wind and green hydrogen production project” in Italian waters: the 3.2GW HyMed. And Eolus outlined its intention to develop two Finnish offshore wind farms: the 2GW Wellamo and 1.5GW Tuulia. Meanwhile, foundations installation was completed at the 1.5GW Hollandse Kust Zuid, while turbine installation was completed at the 480MW Saint-Nazaire. Vattenfall exercised its rights to develop the 980MW N-7.2 site. And Vestas was appointed preferred supplier to the 1.2GW Baltic Power and 1.1GW Inch Cape.

In Australia, Queensland Government-owned Stanwell unveiled plans for the 500MW Tarong West. Tilt Renewables commissioned the 336MW Dundonnell. And Igneo Infrastructure Partners agreed to acquire a 60% stake in the 216MW Lal Lal. In the offshore sector, Copenhagen Energy announced its plans for the 3GW Samphire, while Greater Gippsland’s planned capacity was raised to 2.1GW. In China, the 1GW Bayanwula was granted permission to build. China Huaneng Group’s 400MW Cangnan 4 was commissioned. And construction was under way at the 500MW Qingzhou IV. Elsewhere, a number of turbine purchase agreements for Indian projects were reported by GE, Suzlon, Envision Energy and Senvion. And financial close was achieved for Masdar’s 500MW Zarafshan project in Uzbekistan, while Goldwind agreed to supply its 111 turbines.

Monthly forecast

Xinxin Wang, Insights Analyst

From an estimated 864.5GW at present, we foresee total global wind capacity having topped 1,401GW by the end of 2028.

Asia Pacific currently hosts a 48% share of the global total. By 2028, this will have edged up to almost 50%, as the region’s total approached 699GW. 

Europe’s 359.7GW will account for a quarter of the end-2028 global total, while North America’s 241.7GW will account for one sixth. 

With 63.4GW and 37.8GW, Central and South America and the Middle East and Africa will account for the remainder.

Europe

We have made only marginal revisions to our incremental capacity forecasts for Europe and still expect total installed capacity to have topped 359GW by the end of 2028. The region currently hosts an estimated 234GW.      

In Germany, we foresee on- and offshore capacity having reached 69.1GW and 21.9GW respectively, by the end of the outlook period. Our marginally upwardly revised onshore forecast reflects the addition to the pipeline of the 100MW Papenburg development. 

Spain’s onshore total is tipped to have reached almost 35GW by the end of 2028, while the country’s nascent offshore sector is expected to account for around 2GW of installed capacity by then. 

Our forecasts for the UK are unchanged and we continue to expect on- and offshore capacity to have reached 22.2GW and 29.8GW respectively, by the end of the outlook period. And in France, we foresee growth to almost 34GW by 2028, comprising 28.4GW onshore and 5.4GW offshore.

North America

From an estimated 161.2GW at present, we expect to see North America hosting a total of 241.7GW by the end of 2028. 

The USA alone is expected to account for just over 212GW of this, around 21GW of which will be offshore. Our long-term forecast has been raised, largely reflecting the addition to the pipeline of the newly announced 600MW Silverthorn project in Montana. 

Our forecasts for the ‘big-four’ US states - Texas, Iowa, Oklahoma and Kansas - remain unchanged and we continue to expect them to be host to 52.8GW, 16.5GW, 14GW and 10.8GW respectively, by the end of the outlook period. 

Similarly, our forecasts for Canada and Mexico are unchanged and we continue to expect their totals to have reached 20GW and 9.5GW by 2028.

Asia-Pacific*

From around 414GW at present, we expect Asia-Pacific’s total installed capacity to have topped 698GW by the end of 2028.

In China, we continue to expect to see 518.6GW onshore and 49.1GW offshore by the end of the outlook period. 

India’s capacity is expected to have topped 60GW by then, given the 20GW of incremental capacity forecast for the outlook period. 

And Australia’s end-2028 total is forecast at 20GW. This upwardly revised total reflects the addition to the pipeline of the newly announced 500MW Tarong West project in Queensland.

Central & South America

For Central and South America as a whole, we foresee total installed capacity having exceeded 63GW by the end of 2028. The region currently hosts an estimated 34.4GW. 

In Brazil, we expect capacity to have topped 35GW by the end of the outlook period: around 12GW more than its current total.

Our incremental capacity forecasts for Chile, Argentina and Uruguay are largely unchanged and by 2028, we expect them to be host to 12.6GW, 5.7GW and 2GW, respectively. 

Between them, the ‘other’ countries in the region are expected to have tripled their capacity by 2028, to almost 8GW.

Middle East & Africa

From an estimated 20.6GW at present, we foresee the MEA region’s total installed capacity having reached almost 38GW by the end of 2028. 

Our incremental capacity forecasts for Turkey, South Africa, Morocco and Egypt are unchanged and by the end of the outlook period, we still expect them to be host to 15.2GW, 5.5GW, 5.2GW and 4.7GW, respectively.

Between them, the ‘others’ in the region will host around 7.2GW by 2028, three times their current total.

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