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Windpower Intelligence Global Forecast: September 2022

Below we present our latest global capacity forecasts to 2028.

Project summary

David Carr, Data Editor

August saw additional capacity commissioned, projects announced, contracts signed and assets changing hands. In the USA, PacifiCorp signed a 30-year PPA, for the output of Innergex’s 320MW Boswell Springs in Wyoming. Apex Clean Energy announced the financing of the 224MW Great Pathfinder Wind in Iowa. Longroad Energy announced a $500m equity investment by MEAG and two existing investors. And Dominion Energy received approval for its 2.6GW Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind project. 

In Canada, ABO Wind and Pabineau First Nation agreed to cooperate on the development of 4GW of wind capacity in New Brunswick, while groundbreaking took place at the site of EDPR’s 297MW Sharp Hills project in Alberta. Elsewhere, 2W Energia agreed a loan with Banco do Nordeste do Brasil, to help finance the construction of its 261MW Kairós complex in Brazil.

In Germany, Statkraft and Power & Air Solutions concluded a 920 GWh PPA. In Spain, F2i and Crédit Agricole Assurances agreed to acquire from the Villar Mir Group, 53MW of operational wind capacity and 430MW of wind projects. In the Netherlands, the 320MW Zeewolde was inaugurated. And in Sweden, installation was completed at SR Energy’s 202MW Tvinnesheda. 

Offshore, the 1.3GW Hornsea 2 became fully operational, while the 1.5GW Hollandse Kust Zuid, 1.1GW Seagreen and 342MW Kaskasi delivered their first power. Ingka Investments acquired 49% stakes in three of OX2’s planned offshore wind farms: Galatea-Galene, Triton and Aurora. SSE, Marubeni and CIP named their proposed up to 2.6GW project Ossian. A scoping report for the 1.5GW Outer Dowsing was submitted to the Planning Inspectorate. And ScottishPower Renewables began onshore construction works for its 1.4GW East Anglia THREE. 

In Australia, Copenhagen Energy outlined its plans for the up to 3GW Midwest offshore project, while Equinor and Oceanex Energy were set to collaborate on pursuing opportunities off New South Wales. The Tasmanian Government formally declared the 1,260MW North East Wind to be a major project. Spark Renewables announced plans for the up to 1GW Mallee in NSW, while Renewable Energy Partners outlined its plans for the 600MW Wandoan in Queensland. Major construction works began at Neoen's 412MW Goyder South Stage 1 development in South Australia. And Coca-Cola signed an eight-year PPA with Alinta Energy, for 13GWh / year from the 214MW Yandin.

In India, ReNew Power secured a $1bn loan and Siemens Gamesa agreed to supply Azure Power’s 346MW project in Karnataka. In China, Guangxi Investment Group and State Power Investment Corporation were successful in tenders for the development of 2.7GW of offshore demonstration projects. Elsewhere, AES announced plans for the up to 4GW Binh Thuan off Vietnam, while Ørsted and T&T Group committed to feasibility studies for the 3.9GW Hải Phòng. And Masdar agreed to co-develop up to 2GW of renewables capacity in Tanzania.

Monthly forecast

Xinxin Wang, Insights Analyst

From the current estimated total of 861.8GW, we foresee the world as a whole being host to almost 1,400GW of wind power capacity by the end of 2028.

Asia’s Pacific’s 697.9GW will account for half of this total. Europe’s 359.4GW for a quarter. And North America’s 241.2GW for one sixth.

Central & South America, with 63.2GW and the Middle East and Africa, with 37.9GW, will account for the remainder.

Europe

Europe’s current on- and offshore capacity total is estimated at 233.6GW. By the end of 2028, we expect this to have reached just over 359GW. 

In Germany, we foresee steady capacity growth, taking the 2028 onshore total to 69GW and the offshore total to just under 22GW. Our upwardly revised forecast reflects the addition to the pipeline of enercity’s newly announced 198MW Schleife development in Saxony.

In Spain, we expect to see onshore capacity having reached almost 35GW by the end of 2028, up from the current total of just under 29GW. Around 2GW is also expected to be added in Spanish waters towards the end of the outlook period. 

The UK’s end-2028 on- and offshore totals, meanwhile, are forecast at 22.2GW and 29.8GW. The current totals are just over 14GW and just under 16GW. And in France, we foresee onshore capacity having topped 28GW by 2028, an increase on the current 19.4GW. We also expect to see just over 5GW of French offshore capacity in place by then.

North America

Our long-term incremental capacity forecasts for North America are unchanged and we continue to expect to see the region hosting just over 241GW of wind capacity by the end of 2028. The current estimated total is 161.2GW. 

We expect the USA’s total to have reached 211.8GW by the end of the outlook period, representing growth from the current 139GW. On a state-by-state basis, we foresee Texas, Iowa, Oklahoma and Kansas hosting 52.8GW, 16.5GW, 14GW and 10.8GW respectively, by 2028. 

Our end-2028 capacity forecast for Canada is 20GW, an increase on the current 14.8GW. Much of the growth will occur outside of Ontario and Quebec. And in Mexico, we expect to see around 9.5GW in place by the end of the outlook period. It currently hosts around 7.4GW.

Asia-Pacific*

From the current estimated total of 412GW, we expect to see the Asia-Pacific region hosting just under 698GW of wind power capacity by the end of 2028.

In China, we foresee on- and offshore capacity having reached 518.6GW and 49.1GW by then. The current totals are estimated at 317.6GW and 27.5GW.

In India, we expected to see around 20GW of capacity additions over the 2022-28 period, taking the total there to just over 60GW.

And in Australia, we foresee capacity having reached almost 20GW by the end of the outlook period. Our upwardly revised forecast reflects the addition to the pipeline of Renewable Energy Partners’ newly announced 600MW Wandoan project in Queensland.

Central & South America

By the end of 2028, we expect total installed capacity in Central and South America to have topped 63GW. The region’s current total is estimated at 34.4GW.

From the current 23GW, we foresee Brazil’s total having reached just over 35GW by then. In Chile, we expect to see capacity increasing almost four-fold by the end of 2028, to 12.6GW. And in Argentina, we expect to see around 2.4GW of 2022-28 capacity growth, taking its total to 5.7GW.

Only modest growth is expected in Uruguay, to 2GW by the end of 2028, while the ‘others’ in the region will account for the remaining 5GW of 2022-28 added capacity.

Middle East & Africa

From an estimated 20.5GW at present, we expect to see the MEA region hosting just under 38GW of wind power capacity by the end of 2028.

From the current 11GW, Turkey’s capacity will have exceeded 15GW by then.

South Africa’s end-2028 capacity is expected to have reached 5.5GW, representing growth from the current 3.6GW.

And Morocco’s and Egypt’s totals are forecast to have reached 5.2GW and 4.7GW respectively by the end of the outlook period. They currently host 1.8GW and 1.7GW.

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