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Windpower Intelligence Global Forecast: August 2022

Below we present our latest global capacity forecasts to 2028.

Project summary

David Carr, Data Editor

July saw no let up in activity, in many of the larger wind markets. In the USA, Enel’s 350MW Azure Sky Wind in Texas was newly online. The 504MW Rail Tie Wind’s interconnection in Wyoming was approved. And Meijer signed a PPA with NextEra Energy, linked to the 300MW Lacy Creek Wind in Texas. In Canada, ABO Wind sold its 514.6MW Buffalo Plains project. In Brazil, Nordex agreed to supply the 456MW Feijão’s 80 N163/5.X turbines. And in Chile, Atlas Energy submitted plans for the 316.7MW El Guanaco.

In Sweden, Arise sold the 277MW Kölvallen to a Foresight-managed fund, while Siemens Gamesa agreed to supply its 42 turbines. Fred. Olsen Renewables agreed to €480m of equity financing for three existing wind farms in Sweden and Norway and future wind farms in the UK and Sweden. And in Spain, Acciona Energía closed a framework agreement with FORTIA, for the supply of around 1TWh / year over five-to-10-year periods. Elsewhere, Ørsted agreed to acquire Ostwind. Boralex acquired Infinergy’s UK interests. And Banks Renewables launched public consultation for its 280MW Bodinglee project. In Germany, Enercity announced its plans for a 198MW wind farm in Saxony, while Burgenland Energie and Verbund announced their plans for Austria’s largest electrolyser, powered by up to 300MW of wind and solar energy. 

In the offshore sector, Inch Cape, East Anglia THREE, Norfolk Boreas, Hornsea Project Three and Moray West were successful in the UK’s fourth CfD allocation round, while Ocean Winds confirmed its plans to develop a further 2GW of capacity in the Moray Firth. Foundations installation commenced at the 1.2GW Dogger Bank A and was completed at the 257MW Arcadis Ost 1. Financial close was achieved for the €2.8bn NeuConnect UK-Germany interconnector, while Siemens Gamesa and wpd announced the signing of a Master Supply Agreement for the 927MW Gennaker. Fugro announced that it had begun geotechnical site investigations at the site of RWE’s 1GW Thor project. And that it had been awarded a new site investigation contract by Vattenfall, related to the 1.4GW Norfolk Boreas. Meanwhile, the Finnish Government approved the leases for sites set to host the 500MW Tahkoluoto 2 and 1.3GW Korsnäs.

In China, CGN's 1GW Horqin Right Front Banner development in Inner Mongolia was brought online. In South Africa, Enel commissioned its 147MW Karusa and 147MW Soetwater wind farms. In the Taiwan Strait, first power was delivered from the 376MW Formosa 2. And in Australia, turbine installation was completed at the 209MW Murra Warra II. Elsewhere, Mainstream Renewable Power and Actis agreed to sell Lekela Power to Infinity Group and Africa Finance Corporation. And Hexicon Korea agreed the sale of its 40% stake in the up to 1.2GW Yeonggwang floating project.

Monthly forecast

Xinxin Wang, Insights Analyst

From just over 858GW at present, our revised forecasts indicate total global wind capacity of almost 1,398GW by the end of 2028. 

At just over 697GW, Asia-Pacific will account for around half of this total, while Europe’s 358.5GW will account for a quarter. 

North America, with just over 241GW, will host around one sixth of the world’s end-2028 capacity, while Central & South America’s 63GW and the Middle East and Africa’s 38GW will account for the remainder. 

Europe 

From just under 232GW at present, we foresee Europe’s total on- and offshore wind capacity having topped 358GW by the end of 2028. 

Our incremental onshore capacity forecasts for the major European wind countries are unchanged and we continue to expect Germany’s, Spain’s, the UK’s and France’s onshore totals to have reached 68.8GW, 34.8GW, 22.6GW and 28.8GW respectively, by the end of the outlook period. 

Offshore, we foresee Germany adding around 14GW between 2022 and 2028, the UK, just under 16GW and France, around 5GW. Capacity growth is also expected in Danish, Swedish, Dutch and Belgian waters, while Poland’s, Italy’s, Ireland’s and Spain’s nascent offshore sectors are expected to take off towards the end of the outlook period.       

Elsewhere, we have revised our end-2028 offshore capacity forecast for the ‘other’ European countries, reflecting our assumption that Greece’s newly announced target of 2GW of floating offshore wind by 2030 will see at least some of that added by the end of the outlook period. 

 

North America

We foresee North America being host to just over 241GW of wind capacity by the end of 2028, around 80GW more than the current total. 

In the USA, total installed capacity is expected to have topped 211GW by the end of the outlook period, representing growth from the current 138.5GW. On a state-by-state basis, we expect to see Texas’, Iowa’s, Oklahoma’s and Kansas’ end-2028 totals having reached 52.8GW, 16.5GW, 14GW and 10.8GW. They currently host around 36GW, 12GW, 12GW and 8GW, respectively. For Iowa, our medium-term incremental forecast has been upwardly revised, reflecting our expectation that the 246MW Shenandoah Hills project will come online around 2024. 

In Canada, we expect to see 20GW in place by the end of 2028, representing growth from the current 14.8GW. Our upwardly revised forecast reflects our expectation that the 514.6MW Buffalo Plains in Alberta will come online around 2025, following ABO Wind’s sale of the project to an investor. And in Mexico, we foresee total capacity having reached 9.5GW by the end of the outlook period, around 2.1GW more than the current total.   

Asia-Pacific*

From around 411GW at present, we continue to expect Asia-Pacific’s total installed capacity to have reached 697GW by the end of 2028.

In China, on- and offshore capacity is expected to have topped 518GW and 49GW respectively by then. China’s current on- and offshore totals are estimated at 317.6GW and 26.7GW.

In India, a 50% capacity increase is expected over the 2022-28 period, taking its total to just over 60GW. And in Australia, capacity will have doubled by the end of 2028, to just under 19GW.

Growth in Japan’s, Vietnam’s, South Korea’s and Taiwan’s offshore sectors is also expected. Together,  they will add around 24GW of offshore capacity between 2022 and 2028, much of which will materialise towards the end of the outlook period. 

Central & South America

From the current estimated total of 34.4GW, we foresee Central and South America hosting 63GW of wind capacity by the end of 2028.

Our incremental capacity forecasts for Brazil are unchanged and we continue to expect its total to have reached 35GW by then, 12GW more than at present. 

In Chile, we foresee total installed capacity having reached 12.6GW by the end of the outlook period. This upwardly revised forecast reflects the addition to the pipeline of Atlas Energy’s newly announced 316.7MW El Guanaco development. 

Our forecasts for Argentina and Uruguay are unchanged. By 2028, they are expected to be host to 5.7GW and 2GW, respectively. The ‘others’ in the region will account for the remaining 5GW of 2022-28 incremental capacity. 

Middle East & Africa

From an estimated 20.5GW at present, we foresee the Middle East & Africa hosting almost 38GW of wind power by the end of 2028.

Turkey’s capacity is expected to have topped 15GW by then, up from the current 11GW, while South Africa’s should have reached 5.5GW by the end of 2028. It currently hosts 3.6GW.

In Morocco and Egypt, we foresee total installed capacity having reached 5.2GW and 4.7GW respectively by the end of the outlook period. This would represent growth from the current 1.8GW and 1.7GW.

And for the ‘other’ MEA countries combined, we foresee capacity exceeding 7GW by 2028, up from the current 2.4GW. 

 

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