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Windpower Intelligence Global Forecast: July 2022

Below we present our latest global capacity forecasts to 2028.

Project summary

David Carr, Data Editor

The mid-summer period has seen a flurry of activity in most of the major wind markets. In the USA, Vestas agreed to supply 59 V136-4.5 MW turbines to Omega Energia’s 266MW Goodnight I project in Texas. NiSource raised $350m through its first ever Green Bond issuance. And Clearway Energy agreed to acquire five wind farms from Capistrano Wind Partners. Together providing 413MW, they are located in Texas, Nebraska, and Wyoming. 

Meanwhile, Engie’s and EDP Renewables’ 50/50 joint venture, Ocean Winds, launched OW Brasil. And Corio Generation announced its plans for five Brazilian offshore projects. Onshore, Engie acquired PEC Energía’s 882MW Serra do Assuruá project. Atlas Renewable Energy acquired Voltalia’s 378MW Juramento. And Neoenergia began testing at its 566.5MW Oitis complex. Elsewhere, Nordex agreed to supply three of Celsia Colombia’s projects. And in Peru, Engie’s 260MW Punta Lomitas, Enel’s 150MW Mórrope and 217MW Muyu and SL Energy’s 372MW Guarango were approved.

In Germany’s latest onshore wind tender, contracts were awarded to 114 projects totalling 931MW. In Sweden, the 475MW Nysäter was brought online and E.ON and Renewable Power Capital signed grid connection agreements for four wind farms of 561MW combined capacity. In Finland, the 211MW Piiparinmäki began commercial operations. And in Spain, first power was delivered from the 312MW Gecama. 

In the offshore sector, OX2 submitted a permit application for the 5.5GW Aurora. And Vattenfall was set to acquire 85% stakes in Zephyr's 1.4GW Poseidon and 1.4GW Vidar projects. Simply Blue Group outlined its plans for the 1.3GW Olympic Offshore Wind off Northern Ireland. And via its subsidiary, Amber Baltic Wind, Shell submitted proposals for new offshore wind farms off Poland. Siemens Gamesa received firm orders for the 913MW Borkum Riffgrund 3 and 882MW Moray West. And Vestas secured a conditional order for EnBW’s 900MW He Dreiht.

In Australia, BP agreed to acquire a 40.5% stake in the Asian Renewable Energy Hub, while Rio Tinto issued a Request for Proposals to develop large-scale wind and solar power in Queensland. Corio Generation announced its plans for the 2.5GW Great Eastern Offshore Wind, while BlueFloat Energy and Energy Estate announced their plans for the 1.1GW Southern Winds. And Cbus Super acquired a 10% stake in CIP’s 2.2GW Star of the South project. 

In China, construction of the 700MW Jiucaizhuang, 300MW Chengguanzhen and 200MW Zongbieli was under way. In Taiwan, the EIA for the 1.1GW Formosa 4 (Hai Sheng) project received preliminary approval. Meanwhile, Corio Generation and FECON agreed to develop the 500MW Vũng Tàu in the East Vietnam Sea. In The Philippines, mining company Alok-Big Wedge announced plans to develop the 500MW Patnanungan. And in Egypt, ACWA Power signed a 25-year PPA for its 1.1GW Gulf of Suez-Gabal al-Zayt project.

Monthly forecast

Xinxin Wang, Insights Analyst

From 850GW at present, we now expect to see the world as a whole being host to just over 1,395GW of wind capacity by the end of 2028.

Asia-Pacific’s 697GW will account for half of this total, Europe’s 357.7GW for a further quarter and North America’s 240.4GW, for around one sixth.  

Central and South America’s 62.7GW and the MEA’s 37.7GW will account for the remainder.

Europe

From the current 200GW and 28GW, we foresee Europe’s end-2028 on- and offshore totals having topped 268GW and 89GW, respectively.

Growth in Germany’s capacity is expected to see its on- and offshore totals having reached almost 69GW and 22GW by the end of the outlook period. 

Spain’s end-2028 capacity total is forecast at just under 35GW, 2GW of which will be offshore, while the UK’s on- and offshore totals are expected to have topped 22GW and 28GW by then. 

Growth in France’s offshore sector will see its waters being host to just over 5GW by 2028, while its onshore total is expected to have reached almost 29GW by then.

And for Denmark, we have raised our long-term offshore incremental capacity forecast, reflecting the Danish Government having raised its 2030 goal by a further 4GW. From 2.3GW at present, we now expect to see around 7GW installed in Danish waters by the end of 2028.    

North America

From the current 159.8GW, we foresee North America’s total installed capacity having topped 240GW by the end of 2028. The USA will account for just over 211GW of this, Canada for almost 20GW and Mexico, the remaining 9.5GW. 

On a state-by-state basis, we foresee Texas’ total installed capacity having reached almost 53GW by the end of the outlook period. Iowa will be host to 16.4GW, Oklahoma 13.7GW and Kansas, 10.8GW. Growth in the USA’s nascent offshore sector should also see around 20GW of capacity having been installed in U.S. waters by 2028.

Asia-Pacific*

From the current 408GW, we foresee Asia-Pacific’s total installed capacity having reached 697GW by the end of 2028.

China alone will account for almost 568GW of this, with its end-2028 on- and offshore totals set to have topped 518GW and 49GW respectively. It currently hosts around 314GW onshore and 27GW offshore.    

India’s total is expected to have topped 60GW by the end of 2028, around 20GW more than it currently hosts. And in Australia, we foresee capacity doubling over the outlook period, to just under 19GW.

Elsewhere, strong growth in Japan’s, Vietnam’s, South Korea’s and Taiwan’s offshore sectors is expected, particularly towards the end of the outlook period. Between them, these four countries’ waters are expected to be host to around 25GW of offshore wind capacity by the end of 2028.

Central & South America

We expect to see Central & South America hosting a total of 62.7GW of wind power capacity by the end of 2028. The region’s current total is just over 34GW. 

In Brazil, we foresee capacity having reached 35GW by the end of the outlook period, representing growth from the current total of just under 23GW.   

In Chile, from the current 3.6GW, robust growth to 12.2GW by 2028 is forecast. And in Argentina, we foresee capacity almost doubling over the outlook period, to 5.7GW.

Uruguay is expected to add only 0.3GW of capacity over the outlook period, taking its total to 2GW, while the ‘other’ countries in the region will see around 5GW of incremental capacity growth between them. 

Middle East & Africa 

In the Middle East & Africa, we foresee total installed capacity having reached 37.7GW by the end of the outlook period. This would represent growth from the current 20GW.     

Turkey’s total will have topped 15GW by the end of 2028. It currently hosts just under 11GW. And from 3.3GW, 1.9GW and 1.7GW at present, South Africa’s, Morocco’s and Egypt’s end-2028 totals are forecast at 5.4GW, 5.1GW and 4.7GW, respectively.

Between them, the ‘others’ in the MEA region will account for 7.2GW of the end-2028 regional total. They currently host around 2.4GW.  

Download the report: Global Forecast July 2022

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