David Carr, Data Editor
Recent weeks have seen no let up in activity in many of the key wind markets. In the USA, TotalEnergies agreed to acquire 50% of Clearway Energy Group, while BluEarth Renewables acquired NorthRenew Energy’s 1GW Eads wind and solar project in Colorado. SWEPCO was set to seek approval to acquire the 200.6MW Diversion in Texas and the 598.4MW Wagon Wheel in Oklahoma. RWE’s 200MW El Algodon Alto in Texas came online, while Ørsted agreed to acquire the newly online 121MW Ford County Wind in Illinois. In Canada, the 200MW Golden South and 177MW Blue Hill were newly online. In Brazil, Petrobras and Equinor were evaluating the feasibility of the 4GW Aracatu in the Campos Basin. Engie agreed to acquire the rights to PEC Energia’s 882MW Serra do Assuruá. Hydro Rein and Macquarie’s Green Investment Group agreed to form a joint venture, to build and operate the up to 586MW Feijão wind and solar project. And Vestas agreed to supply Pan American Energy’s 423MW Novo Horizonte.
Activity also remained brisk in Europe, where 414MW of onshore wind projects were successful in the Irish auction. In Sweden, Renewable Power Capital acquired a 528MW cluster of ready-to-build projects. The 353MW Blakliden-Fäbodberget was inaugurated. And OX2 handed over the 286MW Åndberg to Ardian. In Scotland, Muirhall Energy submitted a planning application for its 409MW Teviot project. And in Spain, Enel grid-connected its 180MW Tico Wind, while Verbund acquired a renewables portfolio from Q-Energy-managed funds.
Corio Generation entered into a joint venture with Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan Board, regarding an initial portfolio of up to 9GW of Asian and European offshore projects. Global Infrastructure Partners agreed to acquire wpd offshore, while Greencoat agreed to acquire a 12.5% stake in the 1.2GW Hornsea 1. Simply Blue Group unveiled plans for the 2GW Skidbladner and 2.75GW Herkules and the Swedish Government granted a construction permit for the 640MW Kriegers Flak. Falck Renewables and BlueFloat Energy outlined their plans for 975MW off Sardinia. EDF submitted applications for two floating projects in the Mediterranean Sea off France. And An Bord Pleanála granted planning permission for the 800MW Arklow Bank 2’s onshore grid infrastructure.
In Australia, construction was under way at the 1,026MW MacIntyre complex. The 336MW Dundonnell was in the final stages of grid testing. CS Energy signed an MoU with EDF, regarding the 230MW Banana Range. And Iberdrola agreed to supply all of Woolworths Group’s operations in South Australia. In China, construction was under way at the 200MW Wuqi in Shaanxi and the 400MW Alashan League in Inner Mongolia. Elsewhere, BlueFloat Energy announced its plans for a 1GW wind farm in the Taiwan Strait, while Vena Energy and Korea Midland Power agreed to partner on the 384MW Yokji.
Xinxin Wang, Insights Analyst
From the current estimated total of 847GW, we expect to see just over 1,390GW of installed wind capacity in the world as a whole, by 2028.
At just under 697GW, Asia-Pacific will account for half of this. Europe’s 354.8GW will account for a quarter and North America’s 240GW, one sixth.
Central and South America’s 62.3GW and the MEA’s 36.5GW will account for the remainder.
Europe is currently host to an estimated 227GW of on- and offshore wind capacity. By the end of 2028, we expect this total to have reached almost 355GW.
Germany’s on- and offshore totals are tipped to have reached almost 69GW and 22GW by 2028, representing growth from the current 56.7GW and 7.7GW. Growth in the UK’s on- and offshore capacity is also forecast, to 22.6GW and 28.6GW by 2028.
Spain’s end-2028 onshore total is forecast at 34.8GW, while France is expected to be host to 28.8GW of onshore capacity by then. Offshore, Spain and France are also expected to have added 2GW and 5.4GW respectively, by the end of the outlook period.
Elsewhere in the region, we have raised our long-term incremental capacity forecast, reflecting VSB’s intention to develop 329MW of capacity near Imotski, Croatia. The four wind farms could come online around 2028.
From an estimated 159.4GW at present, we foresee North America being host to just over 240GW of wind capacity by the end of 2028.
The USA’s total is expected to have topped 211MW by then, around 21GW of which will be offshore. On a state-by-state basis, we expect to see Texas hosting almost 53GW by 2028, around 17GW more than it does currently.
Iowa’s, Oklahoma’s and Kansas’ totals, meanwhile, are expected to have reached 16.4GW, 13.7GW and 10.8GW by the end of the outlook period. And onshore capacity in the other U.S states combined is expected to have reached almost 97GW by then.
Our incremental capacity forecasts for Canada and Mexico are unchanged and we still expect them to be host to 19.4GW and 9.8GW respectively, by the end of the outlook period.
From an estimated 406GW at present, we expect to see Asia-Pacific’s total installed wind capacity having topped 696GW by the end of 2028.
China will account for just under 568GW of this, with its on- and offshore totals expected to have reached 518.6GW and 49.1GW by then.
India is expected to add around 20GW over the 2022-2028 period, taking its total to just over 60GW. And Australia’s capacity is tipped to have reached almost 19GW by 2028, around twice its current total.
Japan’s on- and offshore capacity is forecast to have reached 6.5GW and 4.2GW by 2028. Robust growth is also expected in Vietnam, particularly in the offshore sector, where 7.2GW is expected to be in place by the end of the outlook period.
Central & South America
From 34.2GW at present, we foresee Central and South America having installed just over 62GW of wind capacity by the end of the outlook period.
Brazil’s total is expected to have reached almost 35GW by then. It currently hosts just under 23GW. In Chile, we foresee around 9GW being added between 2022 and 2028, taking the country’s total to just over 12GW. And in Argentina, we expect to see capacity having almost doubled by the end of 2028, to 5.7GW.
We have raised our long-term incremental capacity forecast for the ‘others’ in the region, reflecting the possibility that the 200MW Vientos Alisios may come online by 2028. Planned for a site off Cartagena, it is Colombia’s most advanced offshore wind project.
Middle East & Africa
From an estimated 20GW at present, we expect to see the Middle East & Africa hosting 36.5GW of wind capacity by the end of 2028.
Turkey will account for just over 15GW of this, with its capacity tipped to increase from the current 10.9GW. South Africa’a, Morocco’s and Egypt’s end-2028 totals, meanwhile, are forecast at 5.4GW, 5.1GW and 3.6GW, respectively.
For the ‘others’ in the MEA region, we have raised our long-term incremental capacity forecast by 100MW, reflecting the addition to the pipeline of the Centrales d’Energie Renouvelable de N’Djamena wind farm in Chad. To form part of a wind-solar-storage development, it is expected online towards the end of the outlook period.
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