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Windpower Intelligence Global Forecast: May 2022

Below we present our latest global capacity forecasts to 2028.

Project summary

David Carr, Data Editor

April saw no let up in the pace of activity in both the on- and offshore wind sectors. In the USA, construction was under way at Enel’s 300MW Seven Cowboy project in Oklahoma, while Amazon announced its plans for a 300MW development, also in Oklahoma. Ørsted decided to progress the 201MW Sunflower Wind in Kansas. Avangrid’s 200MW Golden Hills in Oregon began commercial operations. And Trident Winds announced that it had submitted a lease request for the 2GW Olympic Wind. In Canada, Boralex, Énergir and Hydro-Québec announced plans for three 400MW wind farms, while Potentia Renewables achieved financial close for 550MW in Alberta. And in Chile, EDF submitted plans for the 416MW Wayra, while Atlas Renewable Energy agreed a 1.3 TWh / year PPA with Enel. 

Activity also remained brisk in Europe, where Iberdrola and Banco Santander agreed a €1bn loan. Siemens Gamesa agreed the €580m sale to SSE, of a portfolio that includes 3.9GW of onshore wind projects. OX2 agreed to cooperate with TMV Green, on 500MW in Estonia. And Eolus and Hydro REIN agreed the sale to MEAG, of a 75% stake in the 260MW Stor-Skälsjön in Sweden. 

Offshore, the world’s first SG 11.0-200 DD turbine was installed at the 1.5GW Hollandse Kust Zuid. Turbine installation was also under way at the 480MW Saint-Nazaire. NKT commissioned the 1.3GW Hornsea 2’s cable system and the first length of the 1.2GW Dogger Bank A’s HVDC export cable was installed. Fugro was contracted to investigate the 3GW Morgan and Mona project sites, while RPS agreed to assess the 2.9GW Morven. Ramboll was set to prepare the preliminary design for the 1.1GW Hiiu. And RWE signed an agreement with Energinet, for its 1GW Thor project. In Germany, Iberdrola’s 476MW Baltic Eagle was approved and Heerema was contracted to install the 900MW He Dreiht’s foundations. And Simply Blue Group, Proes Consultores and FF New Energy Venture, as well as Repsol and Ørsted and Equinor and Naturgy, were exploring opportunities in Spanish waters. 

Envision announced that it had secured a 2GW order in India. It also signed a Letter of Intent, regarding turbines for the 600MW Monsoon in Laos. In Guangxi, China, 14 projects of more than 1.9GW total capacity were approved. In Australia, Iberdrola acquired the rights to the 1GW Mount James, REP outlined its plans for the up to 900MW Proserpine and first power was delivered from the Port Augusta Renewable Energy Park. In Vietnam, PNE announced plans for the up to 2GW Hòn Trâu 1, 2 & 3, while Hoa Phat Group announced plans for a 1.5GW onshore cluster. And in the Taiwan Strait, first power was delivered from the 900MW Greater Changhua 1 & 2a, while construction resumed at the 640MW Yunlin.

Monthly forecast

Xinxin Wang, Insights Analyst

From just over 827GW at the end of 2021 and the current estimated total of 843GW, we expect to see total global installed wind capacity having topped 1,388GW by the end of 2028. Asia-Pacific’s 695.5GW will account for half of this. Europe’s 354.4GW and North America’s 240GW, for around one quarter and one seventh respectively, while Central & South America’s 62GW and the MEA’s 36.4GW will account for the remainder.

Europe

From an end-2021 total of 225GW, we foresee Europe’s total on- and offshore capacity having exceeded 354GW by the end of 2028. 

In Germany, we expect to see modest onshore capacity growth over the outlook period; from 56.1GW at the end of 2021, to just under 69GW by 2028. Offshore, we foresee growth from the current 7.7GW, to just under 22GW by then. 

Growth in Spain will see its end-2028 onshore capacity total having reached almost 35GW. Around 2GW of new offshore capacity is also expected to materialise in Spanish waters, towards the end of the outlook period.

In the UK, we foresee onshore capacity having reached 22.6GW by 2028, an increase from the current total of just over 14GW. UK waters, meanwhile, are expected to be host to 28.6GW by then. They currently host 12.7GW. 

France too is expected to exhibit steady capacity growth over the outlook period. Onshore, around 10GW will be added between 2022 and 2028, taking the total to just under 29GW. Offshore, around 5GW is expected to be added. 

In Italy, we have raised our long-term offshore capacity forecast, reflecting the addition to the pipeline of two projects planned off Sicily and Sardinia. Together, they would provide 750MW. 

Among the ‘other’ European countries, we continue to assume that no capacity growth at all will occur in Ukraine, at least for the foreseeable future. And that the pace of growth in Russia will be anaemic at best. They currently host around 1.7GW and 2GW, respectively. 

North America

From 155.4GW at the end of 2021, we expect to see North America having installed a total of 240GW by the end of 2028.

The USA’s end-2028 capacity is forecast at just under 211GW, around 77GW more than the end-2021 total. 

On a state-by-state basis, Texas, Iowa, Oklahoma and Kansas are expected to add around 17.6GW, 4.5GW, 3GW and 2.6GW between 2022 and 2028, taking their totals to 52.7GW, 16.4GW 13.7GW and 10.8GW, respectively.

In addition, the U.S is expected to have added more than 20GW of offshore capacity by the end of 2028. 

In Canada, growth from the current 14.3GW is forecast, to 19.4GW by 2028. Our long-term forecast has been raised, reflecting Boralex’s, Énergir’s and Hydro-Québec’s plans to add up to 1.2GW of new capacity, a third of which could come online towards the end of the outlook period. 

In Mexico, meanwhile, we expect to see around 2.5GW of incremental capacity, taking the total there to just under 10GW by 2028.

Asia-Pacific*

The Asia-Pacific region was host to around 394.4GW of wind capacity at the end of 2021. Over the outlook period, we foresee 300GW of incremental capacity growth, taking the region’s total to just over 695GW by the end of 2028.

China alone is expected to account for just over 567GW of this: 518GW onshore and 49GW offshore. It was host to just over 302GW on- and 26.4GW offshore, at the end of 2021.

We foresee India adding around 20GW of capacity over the outlook period, taking its total to just over 60GW. And Australia’s capacity is expected to have doubled by the end of 2028, to just over 18GW.

In Vietnam, we foresee growth in both the on- and offshore sectors, to 4.5GW and 7.2GW by the end of the outlook period. Our upwardly revised long-term offshore forecast for Vietnam reflects the addition to the pipeline of PNE Group’s up to 2GW Hòn Trâu 1, 2 & 3. 

In Japan, meanwhile, end-2028 on- and offshore capacity is forecast at 6.5GW and 4GW.

Central & South America

From 32.7GW at the end of 2021, we expect to see Central & South America hosting a total of 62GW by the end of the outlook period.

Brazil alone will account for around 35GW of this. Its end-2021 total was 21.6GW. Argentina’s capacity will almost double, reaching 5.7GW by the end of 2028.

And in Chile, we expect to see capacity increasing almost four-fold, to just over 12GW. Our long-term forecast for Chile has been raised, reflecting the addition to the pipeline of Colbún’s planned 360MW Junquillos project in Biobío.

Middle East & Africa 

At the end of 2021, the MEA region hosted almost 20GW. Over the outlook period, we foresee this increasing to just over 36GW.

Turkey’s 2022-28 incremental capacity is forecast at 4.4GW, taking its total to just over 15GW. 

Growth in South Africa, Morocco and Egypt is also expected, with their end-2028 totals tipped to have reached 5.4GW, 5.1GW and 3.6GW. Their end-2021 totals were 3.2GW, 1.9GW and 1.7GW, respectively.

Download a pdf of this report here

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