David Carr, Data Editor
March saw several projects being announced, new capacity being commissioned and assets changing hands.
In the USA, AEP’s 998MW Traverse Wind Energy Center in Oklahoma was brought online, while full commercial operations were under way at Ørsted’s 298MW Haystack Wind in Nebraska. Magic Valley Energy announced its plans for the 800MW Salmon Falls in Idaho, while Maersk and Ørsted announced their plans for a 675MW Power-to-X facility on the Gulf coast. In Brazil, Shell applied for permits for six offshore wind farms that together, could provide 17GW. And Enel began full commercial operations at its 353MW Morro do Chapéu Sul II.
In Germany, contracts for 141 onshore projects totalling 1,332MW were awarded. In the Netherlands, installation of the 322MW Zeewolde’s 83 turbines was completed. In Finland, Nordex agreed to supply the 165MW Kalistanneva and 148.5MW Matkussaari, while in Sweden, GE agreed to supply the 146MW Klevberget. Eurowind Energy agreed to acquire four of Vattenfall’s Danish onshore projects. And in Spain, Cepsa set out its 2030 strategy, including the development of a 7GW solar and wind pipeline.
In the offshore sector, Ørsted agreed to divest 50% of the 1.3GW Hornsea 2, while TRIG agreed to acquire a 7.8% stake in the 1.2GW Hornsea One. Development consent was granted to ScottishPower Renewables’ 900MW East Anglia TWO and 800MW East Anglia ONE North. OX2 announced that it had applied for a permit for the 5.5GW Aurora in the Baltic Sea off Sweden. K2 Management signed a framework agreement with Sunly, regarding the development of Baltic Sea projects. And Polenergia and Green Genius signed an agreement, focused on developing Lithuania’s first offshore wind farm. Meanwhile, SSE outlined its intention to apply for consent for Arklow Bank 2 under Ireland’s new consenting regime. And Simply Blue Group announced its plans for the up to 500MW Nomadic Offshore Wind project off Northern Ireland.
In China, CTG’s 425MW Ulanqab I was newly online. And construction of China Huadian's 800MW Urumqi was under way. In Australia, Powerlink agreed to grid-connect the 923MW MacIntyre and 102MW Karara. The go-ahead was given for Port Augusta Renewable Energy Park’s commissioning to begin. Epuron raised Burrendong’s planned capacity to 650MW. And OSMI’s 33-turbine Delburn was approved.
Elsewhere, Vestas secured two 295MW orders for projects in the Taiwan Strait. NZ Super Fund and CIP announced that they were exploring the potential for offshore wind development in New Zealand’s South Taranaki Bight. ArcelorMittal and Greenko Group announced that they would look to co-develop 975MW of solar and wind capacity in India. In South Africa, Anglo American signed an MoU with EDF, regarding the development of a regional renewable energy ecosystem. And in Zambia, Chariot Transitional Power, Total Eren and First Quantum Minerals were advancing a 430MW solar-wind project.
Xinxin Wang, Insights Analyst
From an upwardly revised 827.3GW at the end of 2021, we foresee total global installed wind capacity having topped 1,383GW by the end of 2028.
Asia-Pacific’s 298.4GW is expected to account for just over half of this 556GW of incremental capacity. Europe’s 128.6GW and North America’s 83.6GW, a further 23% and 15% respectively.
Central & South America’s 29.2GW and the Middle East & Africa’s 16.5GW will account for the remainder.
From an estimated 226GW at present, we foresee Europe’s total on- and offshore wind capacity having topped 353GW by the end of 2028.
In Germany, despite ambitious targets for 2030 having been announced, we currently - pending a more streamlined permitting regime being implemented and greater tender volumes materialising - foresee onshore capacity growth over much of the outlook period continuing to be relatively modest: from around 56.5GW at present, to just under 69GW by 2028. Offshore, we expect to see Germany’s capacity reaching almost 22GW by then. German waters currently host 7.7GW.
Elsewhere, Spain’s installed capacity is expected to have reached almost 37GW by 2028, 2GW of which will be offshore. And the UK’s is forecast to have topped 51GW, around 22.6GW of which will be onshore and 28.6GW offshore. The UK’s current on- and offshore totals are 14GW and 12.7GW.
From an upwardly revised 155.4GW at the end of 2021, we foresee North America having installed a total of 239GW by the end of 2028.
The USA alone will account for just over 210GW of this. It currently hosts an estimated 136.6GW. On a state-by-state basis, Texas, Iowa, Oklahoma and Kansas are expected to add 17.6GW, 4.5GW, 2.5GW and 2.6GW respectively, between 2022 and 2028. More than 20GW will be added offshore.
Steady growth in Canada’s installed capacity is forecast, from 14.3GW at present, to 18.9GW by the end of the outlook period. And in Mexico, we foresee growth from 7.3GW to 9.8GW.
From an upwardly revised 394.4GW at the end of 2021, we foresee the Asia-Pacific region hosting almost 693GW by the end of 2028.
China alone will account for just over 567GW of this: 518GW onshore and 49GW offshore. China’s end-2021 on- and offshore totals were 302.1GW and 26.4GW.
India is expected to add around 20GW over the 2022-28 period, taking its total to almost 60GW. And Australia’s total will double, to just over 18GW.
Japan’s end-2028 on- and offshore totals are forecast at 6.5GW and 4GW, while Vietnam’s are expected to have reached 4.5GW and 5.2GW by then.
Central & South America
From the current estimated total of 33.8GW, we expect to see Central & South America hosting just under 62GW by the end of the outlook period.
Brazil is expected to account for just over 35GW of this, around 12.7GW more than its current total. Chile’s total capacity is tipped to more than triple over the outlook period, to 11.8GW, while Argentina’s will almost double, to 5.6GW.
Middle East & Africa
From the current 20GW, we expect to see the Middle East & Africa having installed a total of just over 36GW by the end of 2028.
Turkey’s capacity is tipped to have risen from 10.8GW, to 15GW by the end of the outlook period. South Africa’s, Morocco’s and Egypt’s totals are forecast to have reached 5.4GW, 5.1GW and 3.6GW by then. They currently host 3.3GW, 1.9GW and 1.7GW, respectively.
Together, the ‘others’ in the MEA region are expected to have added 4.7GW of capacity by the end of 2028, taking their total to just over 7GW.
Download a pdf of this report here