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Windpower Intelligence Global Forecast: March 2022

Below we present our latest global capacity forecasts to 2028.

Project summary

David Carr, Data Editor

February saw projects and contracts awarded, new capacity commissioned and assets changing hands. But many ran down their activities in Ukraine and halted new Russian investments. 

In the USA, leases for six sites in the New York Bight were awarded, while the 300MW Priddy in Texas and 115MW Black Rock in West Virginia began commercial operations. In Brazil, WEG agreed to supply the 302MW Coxilha Negra. And in Chile, Innergex agreed to acquire Aela’s 332MW portfolio. 

In France, Andera Partners launched a new platform, aimed at the development of more than 1GW of wind and solar projects. The French tender saw 510MW awarded, while 392MW was awarded in Italy. In Spain, Iberdrola announced plans for the 586MW Ibercerrato 1 and 400MW Paredes. But in Ukraine, Emergy announced the postponement of the 340MW Zophia I & II’s construction. In Finland, Borealis and Fortum signed a long-term PPA, linked to the under construction 380MW Pjelax-Böle and Kristinestad Norr. Valorem raised €145m towards its 148.5MW Matkussaari, while Helen and the Bank of Åland’s Wind Power Fund acquired its 165MW Kalistanneva. And in the Netherlands, USG Industrial Utilities and Eneco announced a 15-year agreement, linked to the 382.7MW Fryslân. 

Offshore, development consent was granted for Vattenfall’s 1.8GW Norfolk Vanguard. SSE and Equinor completed the sales to Eni, of two 10% stakes in the 1.2GW Dogger Bank C. Ørsted completed the divestment of a 50% stake in the 900MW Borkum Riffgrund 3. And Siemens Gamesa signed two Preferred Supplier Agreements, linked to the 1.4GW Baltyk II and III. The Swedish Government identified three offshore wind zones, while OX2 submitted a permit application for the 1.8GW Triton. And Falck Renewables’ and BlueFloat Energy’s joint venture outlined plans for two floating offshore wind farms off Sardinia. 

In China, several projects were approved in Guangxi and Yunnan. In Australia, Shell agreed to acquire a 49% stake in WestWind Energy Development. Approval was granted to Acciona Energía, for its 923MW MacIntyre in Queensland. Fortescue Metals Group's subsidiary, Pilbara Energy, outlined its plans for the up to 5.4GW Uaroo Renewable Energy Hub in Western Australia. Tilt Renewables was set to file an amended plan for the 1,320MW Liverpool Range in New South Wales. Epuron outlined its plans for the up to 100-turbine Boomer Range in Queensland and announced that its up to 56-turbine Specimen Hill had been granted planning consent. And Vestas was announced as Golden Plains’ EPC partner, while TagEnergy was secured as an equity investor in the Victoria development. 

Elsewhere, The Blue Circle and CleanTech Global Renewables outlined their plans for the 1.2GW Mindoro offshore wind farm in the Tablas Strait, Philippines. And Kajima Corporation and Van Oord were appointed preferred BoP contractors for three projects in Japanese waters.

Monthly Forecast

Xinxin Wang, Insights Analyst

From an upwardly revised 822GW at the end of 2021, we now expect to see the world’s total installed wind capacity having topped 1,376GW by the end of 2028.

Asia-Pacific’s 690GW will account for half of this, with Europe (353GW) and North America (237.5GW) accounting for more than two-fifths between them.

Central and South America’s 59.6GW and the Middle East and Africa’s 35.8GW will account for the remainder. 

Europe

From an upwardly revised end-2021 total of 225GW, we expect to see Europe hosting 353GW by the end of 2028.

The 128GW of incremental capacity forecast for 2022-28 is around 3GW less than we had previously expected to see, largely as a result of downgrades to our incremental capacity forecasts for Ukraine and Russia, due to the worsening political situation. 

With Ukraine having added 359MW in 2021, taking its total to 1.7GW and Russia’s capacity having almost doubled last year to 2GW, both countries had been expected to exhibit robust capacity growth, as their nascent wind sectors gathered momentum. 

But at the very least, significant delays to project development, investment decisions and construction are now expected in Ukraine, alongside project cancellations. For the time being, we have assumed all Ukrainian projects are on hold.  

A marked slowdown in Russia’s capacity growth is also expected, as economic sanctions take effect and investors exit the market. Both Ukraine and Russia are included under ‘others’ in our European forecasts. 

North America 

We expect to see North America hosting just over 237GW by the end of 2028, representing growth from the current 155.4GW. 

In the USA alone, we foresee growth from the current 134GW, to just over 209GW by the end of the outlook period. 

On a state-by-state basis, Texas, Iowa, Oklahoma and Kansas are expected to add 17.8GW, 4.4GW, 2.5GW and 2.6GW respectively, over the 2022-28 period.   

In Canada, we expect to see growth from just over 14GW at present, to 18.5GW by 2028. Much of the added capacity will appear in provinces other than Ontario and Quebec.

And in Mexico, we expect to see total installed capacity having topped 9GW by the end of the outlook period. Mexico currently hosts just over 7.1GW.

Asia-Pacific*

From 392GW at the end of 2021, we expect to see Asia-Pacific’s total installed capacity having topped 690GW by the end of 2028.

China’s capacity is expected to have reached just under 567GW by then. Around 518GW of this will be onshore, with 49GW installed offshore.

In India, we foresee around 20GW being added over the outlook period, taking its capacity to just under 60GW. And in Australia, we foresee a doubling of capacity, to just over 18GW by 2028. 

Elsewhere, we have revised our long-term forecast for Vietnam’s offshore capacity, reflecting the addition to the pipeline of the newly announced 498MW Kỳ Anh development. It is planned for a site off Ha Tinh. 

Central & South America

By the end of 2028, we expect to see Central & South America hosting just over 59GW of wind capacity. The region’s current total is 32GW. 

From 21GW currently, Brazil’s capacity is expected to have topped 33GW by the end of the outlook period. In addition to onshore capacity growth, offshore wind capacity is expected to materialise in Brazilian waters towards the end of the outlook period, including the newly identified 1.6GW Guarit.  

Growth is also expected in Chile, from 3.2GW currently, to more than 11GW by 2028. And in Argentina, where capacity is tipped to almost double over the outlook period, to 5.4GW. 

For the ‘other’ countries in the region, we have raised our medium-term incremental capacity forecast, reflecting the addition to the pipeline of Acciona Energía’s 131MW San Juan de Marcona project in Peru. 

Middle East & Africa

From 19.5GW at present, we foresee the Middle East & Africa having installed almost 36GW by the end of 2028. 

Having added 1.4GW in 2021, Turkey is expected to add a further 4GW over the outlook period, taking its end-2028 total to 14.8GW.

South Africa, Morocco and Egypt are expected to add 2.3GW, 3.2GW and 1.9GW respectively between 2022 and 2028, taking their totals to 5.2GW, 5.1GW and 3.6GW.

Between them, the ‘others’ in the region will account for the remaining 4.7GW of incremental capacity. 

Download a pdf of this report here

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