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Windpower Intelligence Global Forecast: February 2022

Below we present our latest global capacity forecasts to 2028.

Project summary

David Carr, Data Editor

Early 2022 saw new projects being announced, contracts being signed and assets changing hands. In the USA, MidAmerican Energy announced plans for the $3.9bn Wind PRIME in Iowa. It would comprise 2,042MW of wind power and 50MW of solar generation. Commercial operations were under way at Pattern Energy’s 1,050MW Western Spirit Wind projects in New Mexico, at ALLETTE Clean Energy’s 303MW Caddo Wind in Oklahoma and at Xcel Energy’s 300MW Dakota Range I & II in South Dakota. Invenergy announced the start of construction at the 250MW Sapphire Sky in Illinois. And Blackstone agreed to make a $3bn equity investment in Invenergy Renewables. Elsewhere, Great River Energy agreed to purchase electricity from Apex Clean Energy’s 400MW Discovery Wind in North Dakota. And Meta signed a PPA, for the output of the 225MW Great Pathfinder Wind in Iowa. In Brazil, AES agreed to buy half of the assets in Renova Energia’s 620MW Cordilheira dos Ventos complex. And operations were under way at Neoenergia’s 471MW Chafariz complex. 

In Russia, a 1.3GW portfolio was being transferred from the Fortum-Rusnano Wind Investment fund, to a new Fortum-Bank GPB joint venture. In Sweden, Vattenfall completed its largest onshore wind farm, the 353MW Blakliden-Fäbodberget. And Eolus and Hydro REIN finalised their agreement to co-develop nine wind farms of 672MW combined capacity. Elsewhere, Prime Capital announced the successful final close of its Prime Green Energy Infrastructure Fund. A2A agreed to acquire from Ardian, stakes in a 335MW Italian portfolio. And EDPR completed the sale of a 221MW Portuguese portfolio to Onex Renewables. 

In the offshore sector, 17 projects were awarded options on leases in Scottish waters. Wpd and OX2 were granted research permits for potential projects in the Gulf of Bothnia. Northland Power and RWE agreed to co-develop a 1.3GW cluster in the North Sea. EDF Renewables and DP Energy formed a joint venture, to co-develop the up to 1GW Gwynt Glas in the Celtic Sea. And BlueFloat Energy and Sener submitted a declaration of interest, regarding a floating offshore wind farm off Galicia. 

Activity was brisk in Asia-Pacific, too. Keppel Infrastructure Holdings, Impact Electrons Siam and Envision signed an MoU, regarding a potential 1GW capacity increase at the Monsoon project in Laos. In China, Mingyang Smart Energy agreed to supply MySE 11-230 turbines to the 600MW Qingzhou I and 400MW Qingzhou II. In Australia, Neoen announced that early construction works for its 412MW Goyder South Stage 1 wind farm had begun in late December 2021. Iberdrola secured an option to co-develop with Triconti ECC Renewables, five offshore wind farms in the Philippines. And Ørsted signed MoUs with Korea Southern Power and Korea Midland Power, for the development of the 1.6GW Incheon complex. 

Monthly forecast

Xinxin Wang, Insights Analyst

From an upwardly revised end-2021 estimated total of 817.4GW, we expect to see total global installed wind capacity having topped 1,366GW by the end of 2028.

Asia-Pacific will account for half of this, with Europe and North America accounting for a quarter and just over one sixth, respectively. Central and South America and the Middle East and Africa will account for the remaining capacity.

Europe

From just under 221GW at the end of 2021, we now expect to see Europe having installed almost 352GW by the end of the outlook period.    

Germany’s on- and offshore totals are tipped to have reached 69GW and 22GW by then, up from the current 56.4GW and 7.8GW. And from the current 14.1GW and 10.5GW, the UK’s end-2028 on- and offshore totals are forecast at 22.7GW and 26GW respectively. France, meanwhile, is expected to be host to 28.4GW and 5.4GW of on- and offshore capacity by 2028.  

In Spain, we expect onshore capacity to have reached 34.5GW by the end of the outlook period, around 6.6GW more than the current total. Offshore, and reflecting the addition to the pipeline of the 525MW Parque Nordés phase 1 off Galicia, we expect to see an upwardly revised total of 2GW in Spanish waters by 2028. We are also a little more bullish on the prospects for Ireland’s offshore sector and have revised our long-term forecast accordingly. 

North America

We foresee just over 236GW being in place in North America by the end of 2028. This would represent growth from the end-2021 estimated total of just over 154GW.

In the USA alone, we expect to see growth from 133GW, to 209GW. This upwardly revised end-2028 forecast largely reflects the addition to the pipeline of MidAmerican Energy’s newly announced renewable energy project in Iowa, Wind PRIME. It would comprise 2,042MW of wind power and 50MW of solar generation. Iowa as a whole is expected to host around 16GW by 2028. It currently hosts 11.9GW. 

In Texas, growth from 36.2GW to 53.8GW is forecast. And in Oklahoma, around 2.5GW is expected to be added over the outlook period, taking total installed capacity there to 12.6GW. A similar volume of capacity is expected to be added in Kansas, where the end-2028 total is forecast at just under 10GW. 

In Canada, we expect to see around 4GW added over the outlook period, taking total installed capacity there to just over 18GW. And in Mexico, growth to 9.2GW is forecast by 2028, up from the current 7.1GW.

Asia Pacific*

From an upwardly-revised end-2021 estimated total of 392GW, we expect to see Asia-Pacific’s total installed capacity having reached 689GW by the end of 2028.   

China alone will account for just over 566GW of this, with its on- and offshore totals expected to have topped 517GW and 49GW by then, up from an estimated 302.1GW and 26.4GW at the end of 2021.

In India, we foresee capacity having reached just under 60GW by the end of the outlook period, up from the current 40GW. In Australia, we expect to see a doubling of installed capacity to 18GW, while Japan will be host to just over 10GW by 2028, around 4GW of which will be offshore.

Vietnam is also tipped to add around 4GW to its offshore total over the outlook period, while South Korea’s and Taiwan’s offshore totals should increase by around 5.6GW and 7.9GW, respectively.   

Central & South America

From just over 31GW at the end of 2021, we expect to see Central and South America’s total installed capacity having reached 53.5GW by the end of 2028.

Brazil’s end-2028 total is expected to have reached just under 30GW. It currently hosts around 20GW. In Chile, a more than tripling of capacity is forecast over the 2022-2028 period, to just over 10GW. And growth in Argentina is expected to result in its capacity having topped 5GW by the end of the outlook period.

Middle East & Africa

From an estimated 19.5GW at the end of 2021, we expect to see the Middle East & Africa adding around 16GW of capacity over the outlook period, taking the region’s end-2028 total to 35.6GW.

From 10.8GW, 2.9GW, 1.9GW and 1.7GW respectively, we foresee Turkey’s, South Africa’s, Morocco’s and Egypt’s capacities having reached 14.6GW, 5.2GW, 5.1GW and 3.6GW by 2028. 

And for the ‘other’ countries in the region combined, we expect to see capacity rising from the current 2.3GW, to 7GW by the end of the outlook period.  

Download a pdf of this report here

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