David Carr, Data Editor
The final weeks of 2021 saw a flurry of activity. In the USA, Pattern Energy’s 1,050MW Western Spirit Wind complex in New Mexico was completed and NIPSCO’s 302MW Indiana Crossroads began full commercial operations. The Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan Board was set to acquire a 50% stake in a 2,520MW wind, solar and solar-plus-storage portfolio, from a subsidiary of NextEra Energy Resources. AES completed its acquisition of Valcour Wind Energy and with it, 612MW of capacity at six New York wind farms. And JERA acquired Apex Clean Energy’s 300MW El Sauz project in Texas. Meanwhile, Vestas received a 301MW order from TransAlta, for the White Rock East and West projects in Oklahoma. In Brazil, BNDES agreed financing with Engie, for the 434MW Santo Agostinho complex, while Vestas agreed to service the 155 Alstom turbines at Renova Energia’s 432.7MW Alto Sertão III complex. In Chile, Total Eren was investigating the development of a large-scale green hydrogen project. And Colbún began construction of its 778MW Horizonte wind farm.
Activity was brisk in Europe, too. In Norway, turbine installation was completed at the 400MW Øyfjellet. In Finland, Fortum decided to progress the 380MW Pjelax-Böle and Kristinestad Norr, while Nordex agreed to supply their 56 N163 6.X turbines. In the Netherlands, the 382.7MW Fryslân became fully operational, as did the 254MW Stavro in Sweden. Elsewhere, Siemens Gamesa and Iberdrola signed maintenance contracts related to 1,928MW of capacity at 69 wind farms in Spain and Portugal.
In the offshore sector, Vattenfall’s 1.8GW Norfolk Boreas was granted development consent. The geophysical and environmental survey for RWE’s up to 1.6GW Södra Midsjöbanken was completed. First power was generated at Ørsted’s 1.32GW Hornsea 2. Financial close was achieved for the 1.2GW Dogger Bank C. Turbine installation was under way at the 1.1GW Seagreen. And RWE was awarded the concession for the 1GW Thor. Falck Renewables and BlueFloat Energy outlined their plans for a 675MW floating project off Calabria, Italy. OX2 submitted a permit application for the up to 101-turbine Galatea-Galene in the Kattegat. Ørsted made final investment decisions for the 242MW Gode Wind 3 and 900MW Borkum Riffgrund 3. Vattenfall decided to progress the 344MW Vesterhav Nord and Syd. And Allianz agreed to acquire a 25.2% stake in the 1.5GW Hollandse Kust Zuid.
In China, Sembcorp agreed to acquire a 35% stake in SDIC New Energy’s 1.9GW wind and solar portfolio, while significant volumes of new capacity were brought online in Chinese waters. And in Australia, BlueFloat Energy and Energy Estate announced plans for three offshore wind farms; the 1.4GW Hunter Coast, 1.6GW Wollongong and 1.3GW Greater Gippsland, while Alinta Energy was considering a 1GW offshore development.
Xinxin Wang, Insights Analyst
Below, we present our preliminary forecasts for global, regional and country-specific wind capacity to the end of 2028. For the world as a whole, we foresee capacity having reached almost 1,348GW by then, around 542GW more than the current total.
At 677GW, Asia-Pacific will account for half of the 2028 global capacity total, with Europe’s 349GW accounting for a quarter and North America’s 233.5GW around a sixth. Central & South America’s 53.4GW and the Middle East & Africa’s 35.1GW will comprise the remainder.
From an estimated 220GW at the end of 2021, we expect to see Europe’s total installed capacity having reached almost 349GW by the end of 2028.
In Germany, we foresee on- and offshore capacity having reached almost 69GW and 22GW respectively, by 2028. Germany’s current on- and offshore totals are 56.4GW and 7.8GW.
Growth in Spain is expected to result in its capacity having reached 36GW by 2028, 34.5GW of which will be onshore, with Spain’s nascent offshore sector expected to have added around 1.5GW of capacity by then.
The UK’s end-2028 on- and offshore totals are forecast at 22.5GW and 26GW respectively, while France’s are forecast at 28.4GW and 5.4GW.
From an estimated 154.1GW at the end of 2021, we expect to see North America being host to 233.5GW of wind capacity by the end of 2028.
In the USA, we foresee growth over the 2022-28 period taking total installed capacity to just over 206GW. Together, Texas, Iowa, Oklahoma and Kansas will account for around 90GW of this, with their end-2028 totals set to hit 53.8GW, 14.4GW, 12.4GW and 9.9GW, respectively. Further, the USA’s waters are expected to be host to around 20GW of wind capacity by the end of the outlook period.
In Canada, we foresee growth from the current 14GW, to just over 18GW by 2028. And in Mexico, we expect to see around 2GW of incremental capacity growth, taking its total to just over 9GW by the end of the outlook period.
We estimate Asia-Pacific’s end-2021 capacity total at 380.5GW. By the end of 2028, we foresee this having increased to 677GW.
China’s on- and offshore totals are expected to rise from the current 297.4GW and 19.5GW, to just over 512GW and 42GW by 2028.
A 50% increase in India’s capacity is forecast for 2022-28, taking its total to just under 60GW, while Australia’s capacity is tipped to double, to 18GW.
Strong growth in Japan’s, Vietnam’s, South Korea’s and Taiwan’s offshore capacity is also forecast. Between them, they are expected to be host to 22GW of offshore capacity by the end of the outlook period.
Central & South America
From just over 31GW at the end of 2021, we expect to see Central and South America’s total installed capacity having reached 53.4GW by the end of 2028.
Brazil’s end-2028 total is expected to have reached just under 30GW. It currently hosts around 20GW. In Chile, a more than tripling of capacity is forecast over the 2022-2028 period, to just over 10GW. And growth in Argentina is expected to result in its capacity having topped 5GW by the end of the outlook period.
Middle East & Africa
From an estimated 19.5GW at the end of 2021, we expect to see the Middle East & Africa’s total installed capacity having topped 35GW by the end of 2028.
Turkey will account for 14.6GW of this, with its capacity tipped to increase from the current 10.8GW. We foresee South Africa’s, Morocco’s and Egypt’s totals having reached 5.2GW, 5GW and 3.6GW respectively by the end of the outlook period. And for the ‘other’ countries in the region combined, we foresee growth to 6.7GW.
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