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Windpower Intelligence Global Forecast: December 2021

Below we present our latest global capacity forecasts to 2027.

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Project summary

David Carr, Data Editor

November saw no let up in the pace of activity in the wind sector. In the USA, Ørsted acquired the newly online 302MW Lincoln Land Wind. EDPR and NIPSCO marked the completion of construction at the 302MW Indiana Crossroads. And RWE’s 240MW West Raymond was brought online. In Brazil, Acciona Energía agreed to acquire Casa dos Ventos’ 850MW Sento Se I and II. Nordex agreed to supply AES Brasil’s 370MW Cajuína 2. And Enel began operations at the 353MW Morro do Chapéu Sul II. 

In Spain, Pontegadea agreed to acquire a 49% stake in Repsol’s 335MW Delta complex, while Glennmont Partners acquired the 98.7MW Sirocco Winco 2 portfolio. In Finland, OX2 agreed to construct and divest the 455.4MW Lestijärvi, while Siemens Gamesa agreed to supply its turbines. In Sweden, finance was raised for Luxcara’s 753MW Önusberget. And the 252.7MW MB2 North part of the Markbygden complex was newly online. Elsewhere, Nofar Energy and Electrum formed a joint venture, focused on the development of up to 1.25GW of Polish wind and solar capacity. ESB and Coillte unveiled their new joint venture, aimed at developing 1GW of Irish onshore capacity by 2030. And Renalfa and Eurowind Energy formed a joint venture, focused on the Bulgarian renewables sector. 

In the offshore sector, the German and Dutch governments raised their long term capacity ambitions. Siemens Gamesa confirmed that it had been appointed preferred supplier for the 3.6GW Norfolk Vanguard and Norfolk Boreas. EDF signed a fifteen-year PPA with RWE, for all of the 1.4GW Sofia’s output. Ørsted lined up SeAH Wind to supply the 2.4GW Hornsea Three’s foundations. Sif and Smulders were contracted to manufacture Dogger Bank C’s monopiles and transition pieces. And Eni agreed to acquire a 20% stake in the 1.2GW development. Enterprize Energy outlined its plans for a 4GW Irish offshore wind farm. And Shell agreed to acquire a 51% stake in Simply Blue’s up to 1.35GW Western Star Wind. Meanwhile, PGE signed conditional agreements with Enea and Tauron, regarding the co-development of four Baltic Sea offshore wind farms. And OX2 and Ålandsbanken Fondbolag signed an MoU for the 250-turbine Noatun, planned for a site south of Åland.

In Australia, Kallis Energy Investments announced its plans for a wind and solar-powered green hydrogen project. And the up to 800MW Golden Plains was approved. In China, significant additional offshore capacity was brought online. Off Taiwan, first power was delivered from the 640MW Yunlin. And Ørsted completed the divestment of a 50% stake in the 605MW Greater Changhua 1. Elsewhere, SSE agreed to form a new joint-ownership company, aimed at progressing 10GW of projects in Japanese waters. And Equinor signed an MoU with Korean East-West Power, regarding cooperation on 3GW of South Korean floating projects.

Monthly forecast

Xinxin Wang, Insights Analyst

From just over 782GW at present, we expect to see the world as a whole being host to around 1,268GW of wind capacity by the end of 2027.

Asia Pacific will account for almost half (48%) of this, with Europe’s and North America’s shares expected to be around 27% and 17%, respectively. Central & South America and the Middle East & Africa will account for the remainder. 

Europe

From the current 218GW, we expect to see Europe hosting 351GW of wind power by the end of 2027.

Germany’s on- and offshore totals are expected to have reached 70GW and 13.7GW by then, representing growth from the current 56.3GW and 7.7GW. 

In the UK, growth in on- and offshore capacity to 24.4GW and 23.8GW is expected, while Spain’s end-2027 total is forecast at 42.8GW. It currently hosts just under 28GW. 

French capacity will be around 34GW by then, 4.5GW of which will be offshore. And Italy’s total is expected to have topped 16GW by 2027. It currently hosts just under 11GW.

North America 

From an estimated 152.8GW at present, we foresee North America hosting a total of 225GW of wind power by the end of 2027. 

The United States’ total is expected to have topped 198GW by then, representing growth from the current 131.8GW. 

On a state-by-state basis, we foresee growth in Texas, Iowa and Oklahoma, to 54GW, 14.4GW and 12.1GW by the end of the outlook period. They currently host 36.2GW, 11.9GW and 10GW, respectively. More modest growth is forecast for California, from the current 6.2GW to 7.1GW by 2027. 

Our incremental capacity forecasts for Canada and Mexico are largely unchanged and we continue to expect them to be host to just over 17GW and just under 10GW respectively, by the end of 2027. Canada’s and Mexico’s totals are currently 13.9GW and 7GW. 

Asia-Pacific*

Having reviewed the long-term pipeline, we now expect to see almost 608GW in place in Asia-Pacific by the end of 2027.

In China, on- and offshore capacity is expected to rise from the current 287.5GW and 14.7GW, to 446GW and 40.5GW by the end of the outlook period.

Australia’s capacity is expected to have topped 16GW by then, just over twice the current 7.9GW. This upwardly revised end-2027 forecast for Australia in part reflects our expectation that Epuron’s up to 372MW Boulder Creek will come online towards the end of the outlook period. The Queensland Government has recently granted the project planning consent.

Elsewhere, India’s forecast end-2027 total is 59.2GW, representing growth from the current 39.5GW. And in Japan, we expect to see around 17GW being in place by 2027, 6GW of which will be offshore.

Central & South America

By the end of 2027, we expect to see Central & South America’s total installed wind capacity nudging the 50GW mark. The region currently hosts an estimated 30GW. 

In Brazil, we foresee almost 28GW being in place by the end of the outlook period. This would represent growth from the current 19.5GW.  

In Chile, growth to 8.6GW is expected, up from the current 3GW. And Argentina’s total should have reached 5.5GW by 2027, almost twice the current 3GW. 

Middle East & Africa 

From an estimated 18.5GW at present, we foresee the Middle East & Africa’s total installed capacity almost doubling over the outlook period, to 34.7GW by the end of 2027. 

Turkey alone will account for around 14.3GW of this, with its total set to increase from the current 10GW. Turkey’s capacity growth could be blunted a little, however, if the country’s current adverse economic circumstances intensify further and investor confidence is affected.    

Elsewhere, we foresee Egypt’s and Morocco’s totals having reached 4.8GW and 4.7GW by the end of the outlook period, up from the current 1.5GW and 1.8GW. And In South Africa, growth from the current 2.9GW is expected, to 5.3GW by 2027.

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