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Windpower Intelligence Global Forecast: November 2021

Below we present our latest global capacity forecasts to 2027.

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Project summary

David Carr, Data Editor

October saw new capacity commissioned, projects announced, contracts awarded and assets changing hands. In the USA, NextEra Energy Partners was set to acquire from NextEra Energy, a 50% stake in a 2,520MW portfolio. PacifiCorp commenced commercial operations at its 256MW TB Flats II. Enel began construction of its 250MW 25 Mile Creek. IEA was contracted to build the 110MW Deerfield II. GE confirmed that it would supply 62 Haliade-X 13MW turbines to the 800MW Vineyard Wind 1. And Vestas was appointed preferred supplier of 138 V236-15.0 MW turbines to the 2.1GW Empire Wind 1 and 2.

In Brazil, eleven projects of 210MW combined capacity were successful in the latest tender. CGT Eletrosul gave its go-ahead for the construction of the 302MW Coxilha Negra. And commercial operations began at Enel’s 206MW Cumaru. In Peru, Engie was set to begin construction of the 260MW Punta Lomitas. And in Chile, Colbun issued a $600m green bond.

In Spain, 2.2GW of onshore wind was awarded in the latest auction. In Germany, 1,494MW was awarded. Statkraft acquired Breeze Three Energy’s 346MW German and French portfolio. And Greencoat Renewables acquired the 101.1MW Ersträsk South in Sweden. GE agreed to supply turbines to part of the 339MW Windplanblauw in the Netherlands. Kosovo’s largest wind farm, the 102.6MW Selac, was brought online. European Energy divested a 185.5MW under construction Lithuanian portfolio. And Mercuria Energy Trading made a strategic investment in CWP, focused on a 2GW portfolio in south-east Europe.

Falck Renewables and BlueFloat Energy outlined their plans for up to 2.5GW of floating capacity off Apulia, Italy. And a BlueFloat Energy-SENER joint venture unveiled its plans for 300MW off Almería, Spain. In the North Sea, installation of all 165 of the 1,386MW Hornsea Two’s foundations was completed, while foundations installation was under way at the 1.1GW Seagreen. Germany’s Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (BSH) approved the 900MW Borkum Riffgrund 3. Ørsted agreed to divest a 50% stake in the project to Glennmont Partners. And the 487MW SeaMade was officially inaugurated. Elsewhere, OX2 applied for a Natura 2000 permit, for the 101-turbine Galatea-Galene in the Kattegat.

In South Africa, 1.6GW of onshore wind capacity was awarded. In Kazakhstan, Total Eren signed an MoU, related to a 1GW onshore wind farm with battery storage capacity. In India, GE agreed to supply 810MW of 2.7-132 turbines to JSW Energy’s projects in Tamil Nadu and Senvion agreed to supply 591MW of its 2.7 M130 turbines to JSW Energy. In Vietnam, Ming Yang agreed to supply 75 MySE 5.0-166 turbines to PowerChina’s 375MW Cà Mau offshore project. And in Taiwan, LS Cable & System was appointed preferred bidder to supply the 1,044MW Hai Long’s submarine cables.

Monthly forecast

Xinxin Wang, Insights Analyst

From the current estimated total of just under 776GW, we expect to see global total installed wind capacity having reached 1,267.7GW by the end of 2027.

Europe will account for 352.5GW of this (a 28% share), with North America hosting a further 224.5GW (18%). At 606.6GW, Asia-Pacific's share of the end-2027 global total will be around 48%.

Central and South America’s 49.7GW and the Middle East and Africa’s 34.4GW will account for the remainder.

Europe

Our incremental capacity forecasts for Europe are largely unchanged and we continue to expect the region to be host to just over 352GW of wind capacity by the end of 2027. The current estimated total is 216GW.

From 56GW and 7.7GW at present, we foresee Germany’s on- and offshore totals having reached 70GW and 13.7GW by then.

Spain’s end-2027 total will have topped 43GW, while the UK will be host to around 24GW onshore and a similar amount offshore.

And in France, total installed capacity is expected to have reached 34.5GW by the end of the outlook period, with 4.5GW of that being offshore.

North America

For the region as a whole, we foresee total installed capacity rising from the current 151.7GW, to 224.5GW by the end of 2027.

The USA’s capacity is tipped to rise from the current 131GW, to 197.5GW by the end of the outlook period. On a state-by-state basis, we foresee Texas’ capacity reaching 54GW by then. It currently hosts just under 36GW. Iowa and Oklahoma should be host to 14.6GW and 12.2GW respectively by 2027. Their current totals are 11.8GW and 9.9GW.

In Canada, we expect to see total installed capacity having reached 17.5GW by the end of the outlook period. Its current total is 13.6GW. And in Mexico, we foresee growth to 9.5GW, from the current 7GW.

Asia-Pacific*

For the region as a whole, we foresee total installed capacity rising from the current 360GW, to more than 606GW by 2027.

China’s total is expected to have topped 485GW by then, around 447GW of which will be onshore and 38.5GW offshore.

India’s total will be just under 60GW by the end of the outlook period, with its capacity tipped to increase from the current 39.5GW.

In Australia, capacity is expected to roughly double, to 15.7GW. And in Japan, we foresee around 17GW being in place by 2027, around 6GW of which will be offshore.

Elsewhere in the region, we have revised our expectations for growth in Vietnam’s capacity, having added the 375MW Cà Mau offshore project to the pipeline.

Central & South America

From an estimated 29.8GW at present, we expect to see Central and South America hosting around 49.7GW of wind power by the end of the outlook period.

Brazil’s total installed capacity is expected to have reached 27.5GW by then. It currently hosts around 19.5GW.

Capacity growth in Chile and Argentina should see their totals reaching 8.6GW and 5.6GW by 2027, while Uruguay and the ‘other’ countries’ totals should have reached 2GW and 6.1GW.

Middle East & Africa

From just over 18GW at present, we foresee the Middle East and Africa’s capacity almost doubling over the outlook period, to 34.4GW.

Turkey’s more than 4GW of incremental capacity should take its end-2027 total to 14.3GW, while South Africa will see its total exceeding 5GW by then. It currently hosts around 2.8GW.

Egypt’s and Morocco’s totals should have reached 4.8GW and 4.4GW by the end of the outlook period, with the ‘other’ MEA countries combined accounting for the remaining 5.6GW of the regional total.

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