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Windpower Intelligence Global Forecast: October 2021

Below we present our latest global capacity forecasts to 2027.

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Project summary

David Carr, Data Editor

Activity remained brisk in September. In the USA, Public Service Co. of Oklahoma’s 287MW Maverick Wind Energy Center was brought online. Vestas received a 240MW order to repower Vitol Wind’s Big Sky Wind in Illinois, as well as a 207MW order from Duke Energy, for the Ledyard Windpower project in Iowa. And Siemens Gamesa agreed to supply the 132MW South Fork and 715MW Revolution Wind, while financial close was achieved for the 800MW Vineyard Wind 1.

In Canada, TransCanada Energy signed a 15-year PPA, linked to EDPR’s 300MW Sharp Hills. In Chile, the Environmental Evaluation Commission for the Antofagasta Region gave the go-ahead to Colbún, for its 980MW Horizonte project. In Colombia, the National Environmental Licensing Authority granted a license to Isagen’s 420MW Guajira II. And in Brazil, Engie completed construction of the entire 361.2MW Campo Largo 2 complex.

In Scotland, concrete was poured at the first of SSE’s 443MW Viking’s 103 turbine bases. The Aquila European Renewables Income Fund completed a €315m refinancing of the under construction 400MW Øyfjellet in Norway. And Goldwind received orders for the 337.5MW Zophia I & II and 288MW Ochakov in Ukraine. 

In the offshore sector, SSE announced that it was combining Berwick Bank and Marr Bank into the up to 4.1GW Berwick Bank Wind Farm. A consortium of Macquarie Group, TotalEnergies and RIDG announced a bid for the 2GW West of Orkney. And Ørsted submitted an environmental report for its proposed 1.5GW Skåne Havsvindpark. Contracts for 958MW were awarded in Germany. Vattenfall’s 604MW Kriegers Flak was inaugurated. Turbine installation was completed at the 950MW Moray East and at the 857MW Triton Knoll. Macquarie’s Green Investment Group acquired Fuinneamh Sceirde Teoranta, the developer of the 400MW Skerd Rocks. And Ørsted contracted Bladt Industries and Steelwind Nordenham to supply the 242MW Gode Wind 3’s and 900MW Borkum Riffgrund 3’s foundations. 

In Australia, Vestas agreed to supply the 396MW Rye Park. Turbine installation was completed at Iberdrola’s 210MW Port Augusta Renewable Energy Park. And Neoen achieved financial close for the 157MW Kaban Green Power Hub. In China, the 300MW Zhaluteqi Bao'an was brought online and construction of China Huaneng's 500MW Da'an began. Elsewhere, GE agreed to supply the 200MW Aftissat II in Morocco. Iberdrola announced that it was planning to develop a 6GW offshore wind portfolio in the Taiwan Strait. Shell and CoensHexicon formed the MunmuBaram joint venture, with a view to developing a 1.4GW floating offshore wind farm off South Korea. CIP and PT Akuo Energy Indonesia formed a joint venture, with a view to developing an initial 400MW portfolio of onshore wind, solar and hydro projects in Indonesia. And Japan Renewable Energy Corporation and wpd agreed to co-develop the up to 299.5MW Saikai Enoshima. 

Monthly Forecast

Xinxin Wang, Insights Analyst

From just over 773GW at present, we expect to see the world as a whole being host to 1,265GW by the end of the outlook period.

Between them, Asia-Pacific, Europe and North America will account for 93% of this total, with their end-2027 totals expected to to have reached 606.1GW, 352.1GW and 223.5GW, respectively.

The remaining 83.3GW will be in Central & South America (49.2GW) and the Middle East & Africa (34.1GW).

Europe

From the current estimated total of just over 215GW, we foresee Europe being host to around 352GW by the end of the outlook period.

Germany is expected to have 70GW of onshore capacity in place by 2027 and a further 13.7GW offshore. Its current on- and offshore totals are 55.8GW and 7.7GW.

Spain’s end-2027 capacity is forecast at 43.2GW, around 15.7GW more than the current total. And from 24.2GW at present, growth In the UK’s capacity to 48.2GW by 2027 is forecast, around half of which will be offshore. 

France, meanwhile, will be host to an estimated 34.5GW by the end of the outlook period, around 4.5GW of which will be offshore.

North America

From an estimated 151.4GW at present, we expect to see North America’s total installed capacity having reached 223.5GW by the end of 2027.

The USA will account for 196.5GW of this, with its total set to increase from the current 130.7GW. On a state-by-state basis, Texas’ total will approach 54GW by the end of the outlook period, with Iowa, Oklahoma and California tipped to be host to 14.6GW, 11.9GW and 7.1GW, respectively.

Canada’s end-2027 total installed capacity is forecast at 17.5GW, representing growth from the current 13.6GW. Much of this growth will occur outside of Ontario and Quebec. 

In Mexico, meanwhile, we foresee around 9.5GW being in place by the end of the outlook period. Mexico currently hosts an estimated 7GW. 

Asia-Pacific*

From the current estimated total of 359GW, we expect to see Asia-Pacific’s total installed capacity having topped 606GW by the end of 2027.

China alone will account for just over 485GW of this - 446.7GW onshore and 38.5GW offshore - with its total expected to rise from the current 299GW. 

India’s end-2027 total is forecast at 59.5GW, around 20GW more than its current total. Australia’s capacity is expected to double over the outlook period, to 15.7GW. And Japan is forecast to be host to almost 17GW by 2027, around a third of which will be offshore.  

Central & South America 

From the current estimated total of 29.6GW, we expect to see just over 49GW of installed wind capacity in Central & South America by the end of 2027.

Our incremental capacity forecasts for Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay are largely unchanged and by the end of 2027, we expect their total installed capacities to have reached 27.3GW, 5.6GW and 2GW, up from the current 19.3GW, 3GW and 1.7GW, respectively.

For Chile, we have made a minor revision to our long-term incremental capacity forecast, reflecting EDPR winning a contract for its 120MW San Andres project. From the current 2.9GW, we foresee Chile’s total installed capacity having reached 8.3GW by the end of the outlook period.

Middle East & Africa

From an estimated 18GW at present, we foresee the Middle East & Africa’s total installed capacity having topped 34GW by the end of the outlook period. 

Turkey alone will account for just over 14GW of this, with its capacity tipped to rise from the current 10GW. Our incremental capacity forecasts for South Africa and Egypt are largely unchanged and by the end of 2027, we expect them to be host to almost 5GW each. 

In Morocco, we foresee capacity rising from the current 1.5GW, to 4.4GW by the end of the outlook period. And for the ‘other’ countries in the region combined, we expect to see an approximate doubling of capacity, to 5.6GW.

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