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Windpower Intelligence Global Forecast: September 2021

Below we present our latest global capacity forecasts to 2027.

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Project summary

David Carr, Data Editor

August saw new capacity commissioned, assets changing hands and contracts being signed. In the USA, several wind farms were reported as having come online, among them Ørsted’s 367MW Western Trail Wind, PacifiCorp’s 247.3MW TB Flats I, EDPR’s 180MW Wildcat Creek and RWE’s 125MW Cassadaga. US Wind announced its plans for the up to 1.2GW Momentum Wind off Maryland. And the BOEM initiated an environmental review of the proposed 880-1,300MW Sunrise Wind off New York. 

In Brazil, Prumo Logística initiated the environmental licensing process for its up to 2.16GW Ventos do Açu complex off Rio de Janeiro. And Enterprize Energy signed an MOU with the State of Rio Grande do Norte, regarding multi-gigawatt offshore wind, green hydrogen and green ammonia projects. 

In Finland, Ilmatar Energy decided to progress its 216MW Möksy and Louhukangas projects, while Vestas agreed to supply Taaleri Energia’s 126MW Isoneva. Global Wind Service announced that it would partner on the installation of Siemens Gamesa 5.X turbines, at the 231MW Skaftåsen and 372MW Björnberget projects in Sweden. And turbine installation was under way at Enel’s 201MW Kolskaya project in Russia. 

In Scotland, SSE commenced the permitting process for its proposed 100MW Bhlaraidh extension. In Ireland, Bord na Móna announced plans to develop the up to 100MW Lemanaghan. And in Spain, Northland Power completed the acquisition of a 551MW portfolio from Helia Renovables. 

Axpo signed a seven-year PPA, for about half of the 600MW capacity of the Fântânele-Cogealac-Gradina wind farm in Romania. European Energy and EIG Global Energy Partners secured €130m to finance wind projects in Lithuania. And Ignitis Group entered the Latvian market, through the acquisition of three projects of 160MW total capacity. 

Offshore, RWE announced that it had contracted Fugro, for work at the Dublin Array, North Falls and Five Estuaries sites. Société Générale was appointed financial adviser for the 2.5GW Baltica 2 and 3. And the last of the 1,386MW Hornsea Two’s 165 monopiles left Rostock. 

Elsewhere, first power was delivered from Masdar’s and EDF Renewables’ 400MW Dumat Al Jandal in Saudi Arabia and Lekela’s 250MW West Bakr Wind in Egypt. And in Australia, Octopus acquired the 181MW Dulacca from RES, while Vestas agreed to supply its 43 turbines. Macquarie’s Green Investment Group (GIG) and TotalEnergies obtained an electricity business license for their planned floating 1.5GW offshore wind farm off Ulsan, South Korea. And Equinor signed a co-development agreement, regarding its 800MW Ulsan Firefly project. Aker Offshore Wind and Mainstream Renewable Power were appointed preferred bidder to acquire an initial 50% stake in Progression Energy’s 800MW Japanese floating project. And Ramboll was contracted by CLP Power, as the owner’s technical engineer and adviser for the pre-development phase of the 250MW Hong Kong offshore wind farm.

Monthly Forecast

Xinxin Wang, Insights Analyst

From the current estimated total of 767.4GW, we foresee total global installed capacity having reached 1,261.7GW by the end of 2027.

Europe’s end-2027 total is forecast at just under 352GW, a 28% share of the expected global total. 

North America’s 221.4GW and Asia-Pacific’s 605.3GW will account for 17.5% and 48% shares, respectively. 

Central & South America’s 49.1GW and the Middle East & Africa’s 33.9GW will account for the remainder.

Europe

Europe currently hosts an estimated 213.4GW of on-and offshore wind capacity. By the end of 2027, this is expected to have risen to just under 352GW.  

From 55.4GW and 7.7GW at present, we foresee Germany’s on- and offshore capacity having reached 70GW and 13.7GW by the end of the outlook period. Growth in UK capacity is expected to see it hosting around 48GW by then, around half of which will be offshore. 

Spain’s capacity is expected to have topped 43GW by 2027, representing growth from the current 27.5GW. And France is expected to be host to just over 34GW by then, around 4.5GW of which will be offshore. Elsewhere, we have made some minor revisions to our capacity forecasts for Ireland,  largely reflecting the addition of some newly identified projects to the pipeline. We now expect Ireland’s capacity to have reached 7GW by 2027, comprising 5.4GW onshore and 1.6GW offshore.

North America

From 151GW at present, we expect to see North America’s total installed capacity having reached 221.4GW by the end of the outlook period.

The USA’s end-2027 total is forecast at just under 195GW. It currently hosts just over 130GW. On a state-by-state basis, Texas’ capacity is expected to rise from the current 36GW, to just under 54GW by the end of the outlook period. Our forecasts for Iowa, Oklahoma and California, meanwhile, indicate growth by 2027 in those states, to 14.6GW, 11.9GW and 7.1GW, respectively. 

In Canada, we foresee growth in total installed capacity, from the current 13.6GW, to 17.3GW by the end of the outlook period. And in Mexico, end-2027 capacity is expected to have reached just under 10GW. Mexico currently hosts 7GW.    

Asia-Pacific*

From the current 355.4GW, we foresee Asia-Pacific’s total installed capacity having exceeded 605GW by the end of 2027.  

In China, we expect to see on- and offshore capacity increasing from the current 284.8GW and 11.1GW, to 446.3GW and 38.5GW by the end of the outlook period. India’s total will have topped 59GW by then, following growth from the current 39.2GW, while Australia's should approximately double, to 15.7GW.

Elsewhere in the region, we made a minor revision to our long-term incremental capacity forecast, reflecting our expectation that the 75MW Kaiwaikawe project in New Zealand will be completed by early 2024. Genesis Energy’s and Tilt Renewables’ newly announced 20-year offtake agreement should provide the catalyst for its construction to proceed.

Central & South America 

We foresee Central and South America’s total installed capacity having topped 49GW by the end of 2027, representing growth from the current total of 29.5GW. Brazil’s total will have reached 27.3GW by then, 8GW more than it currently hosts. Our forecasts for Chile, Argentina and Uruguay are largely unchanged and by 2027, we expect their total installed capacities to have reached 8.2GW, 5.6GW and 2GW, respectively. Between them, the ‘other’ countries in the region are expected to account for 6GW of the end-2027 total. They currently host around 2.5GW.

Middle East & Africa

From an estimated 18GW at present, we expect to see the Middle East & Africa’s total installed capacity having reached almost 34GW by the end of 2027. 

Turkey will account for just over 14GW of this, with its capacity tipped to rise from the current 10GW. From an estimated 2.7GW and 1.5GW at present, South Africa and Egypt are each expected to be host to almost 5GW by the end of the outlook period, while Morocco will account for a further 4.2GW of the 2027 regional total. 

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