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Windpower Intelligence Global Forecast: August 2021

Below we present our latest global capacity forecasts to 2027.

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Project summary

David Carr, Data Editor

Activity remained busy in July, in many of the major wind markets. In the USA, Innergex’s 225.6MW Griffin Trail in Texas, EDPR’s 198MW Headwaters II in Indiana and Duke Energy’s 182MW Maryneal in Texas commenced operations. WEC Energy Group agreed to acquire a 90% stake in Invenergy’s 250MW Sapphire Sky in Illinois, while IEA announced that it had been contracted to repower the 240MW Big Sky Wind, also in Illinois. Elsewhere, Engie received a permit for its 200MW North Bend in South Dakota. And Ørsted submitted a bid to the Maryland Public Service Commission, to develop the up to 760MW Skipjack Wind 2.

In Brazil, BNDES agreed to provide R$1.62bn, towards the development of ten wind farms at the 409MW Ventos do Piauí II and III complexes, while Omega Geração agreed to acquire a 50% stake in EDF Renewables’ 181.5MW Ventos da Bahia 3. In Chile, Mainstream announced its plans for Nazca Renovables, a 1GW+ hybrid renewable energy platform. And that it had energised its 571MW Cóndor portfolio. 

Nor was there any summer lull in activity in Europe. In Sweden, installation of all 73 turbines was completed at Hästkullen. EDPR agreed to acquire a 544MW UK wind and solar portfolio and sold a 221MW Portuguese portfolio. In Germany, BayWa acquired Hanover-based developer NWind, while LEAG submitted an application for the 102MW Forst-Briesnig II. Elsewhere, NovaWind’s 120MW Marchenkovskaya wind farm in Russia was commissioned. And GE agreed to supply 34 Cypress turbines to European Energy, for three projects in Lithuania. 

In the offshore sector, construction commenced at the 1.5GW Hollandse Kust Zuid, while turbine installation was completed at the 382.7MW Fryslân. Vestas was named the pre-selected tenderer at EnBW’s 900MW He Dreiht. And Jan De Nul Group was contracted to transport and install 87 GE Haliade-X 14 MW turbines at the 1.2GW Dogger Bank C. Prysmian was contracted by Ørsted, to supply the 900MW Borkum Riffgrund 3’s and 242MW Gode Wind 3’s inter-array cables. EEW SPC was contracted to supply 50 monopile foundations for Iberdrola’s 476MW Baltic Eagle. And TotalEnergies agreed to supply 50 GWh / year for 15 years to Air Liquide, from a Belgian offshore wind farm. 

In Australia, Nordex received a firm order for 162 N163/5.X turbines for the 923MW MacIntyre project in Queensland. And in India, Siemens Gamesa secured orders for 322MW and 301MW projects in Karnataka. In China, the 350MW Tongquan was given the go-ahead. In the Taiwan Strait, installation of all four of the 376MW Formosa 2’s export cables was completed. And CIP agreed to divest a 25% stake in the 595MW Changfang and Xidao. Meanwhile, BW Ideol and ENEOS Corporation signed a joint development agreement, regarding a commercial-scale floating offshore wind farm off Japan. 

Monthly Forecast

Xinxin Wang, Insights Analyst

From the current estimated total of 763GW, we expect global installed wind capacity to have topped 1,261GW by the end of 2027.

Asia-Pacific’s 605.1GW will account for a 48% share of this, with Europe’s and North America’s 351.8GW and 221.8GW accounting for 28% and 17.5% shares, respectively. 

Central & South America’s 48.8GW and The Middle East & Africa’s 33.9GW will account for the remainder.

Europe

Europe currently hosts just over 213GW of wind capacity. By the end of 2027, we expect to see this having reached almost 352GW. 

Germany’s on- and offshore capacity is expected to have reached 70GW and 13.7GW by then, up from the current 55.4GW and 7.7GW. The UK’s 13.8GW and 10.4GW is tipped to have reached 24.4GW and 23.7GW. 

Spain is forecast to add around 16GW over the outlook period, taking its total to 43.3GW. And from just over 18GW at present, we expect to see French capacity roughly doubling by 2027. By then, France will host around 30GW onshore and 4.5GW offshore.  

North America

From an estimated 149.4GW at present, we foresee North America’s total installed capacity having reached almost 222GW by the end of 2027.

In the USA, we expect to see growth to just under 195GW by the end of the outlook period, up from the current 128.7GW. On a state-by-state basis, our forecasts for Texas, Iowa, Oklahoma and California are largely unchanged and we expect them to be host to 53.7GW, 14.6GW, 11.9GW and 7.1GW respectively, by 2027. Elsewhere, we have raised our long-term incremental capacity forecast, in part reflecting the addition to the pipeline of the 175MW Anticline Wind development in Wyoming.  

In Canada, we expect to see total installed capacity having topped 17GW by the end of the outlook period. Canada currently hosts 13.6GW. And in Mexico, we foresee growth to just under 10GW by 2027, up from the current 7GW.  

Asia-Pacific*

In the Asia-Pacific region, we expect to see total installed capacity having exceeded 605GW by the end of 2027. This would represent growth from the current estimated total of 353.5GW.

China will account for just under 485GW of this regional total. It is expected to be host to 446GW of onshore capacity and 38.5GW offshore by the end of the outlook period. In India, we are forecasting growth in capacity to 59.3GW by 2027, up from the current 39.2GW. Our medium term incremental capacity forecast for India has been raised, reflecting the addition to the pipeline of ReNew Power’s 322MW project in Tondehal, Karnataka. 

Australia’s capacity is expected to approximately double over the outlook period, to 15.7GW, while Japan’s should have reached almost 17GW by 2027, 5.8GW of which will be offshore. Elsewhere in the region, we have raised our long-term newly installed capacity forecast, reflecting the addition to the pipeline of the newly announced 103.5MW Kon Plông development in Vietnam. It marks wpd's entry into the Vietnamese market.

Central & South America 

From the current estimated total of 29.5GW, we foresee Central and South America hosting just under 49GW of wind capacity by the end of 2027.

In Brazil, we expect to see capacity having topped 27GW by then, representing growth from the current 19.3GW. In Chile, we have raised our long-term incremental capacity forecast, reflecting the addition to the pipeline of the newly announced Amolanas hybrid project. It will comprise a 117MW wind farm, alongside solar and battery capacity. From 2.9GW at present, we now expect Chile’s total installed capacity to have reached 8.2GW by the end of the outlook period. And in Argentina, we foresee capacity approximately doubling by 2027, to 5.6GW.

Middle East & Africa

From an estimated 17.4GW at present, we expect to see the Middle East & Africa having installed almost 34GW by the end of 2027. Our incremental capacity forecasts for Turkey, South Africa, Egypt and Morocco are largely unchanged and by the end of the outlook period, they are expected to be host to 14.2GW, 4.9GW, 5GW and 4GW, respectively.

For the ‘other’ countries in the region, we have made some minor revisions to our forecasts, in part to reflect the addition to the pipeline of the Port Ehoala Park project in Madagascar. It should become operational in 2022.

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