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Windpower Intelligence Global Forecast: July 2021

Below we present our latest global capacity forecasts to 2027.

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Project summary

David Carr, Data Editor

June saw no let up in the pace of activity in the wind sector. In the USA, Vestas reported over 500MW of turbine purchase agreements, while RWE’s 250MW Scioto Ridge in Ohio, Xcel Energy’s 200MW Freeborn Wind in Minnesota and Acciona’s 198MW La Chalupa in Texas were brought online. Construction started at RWE’s 240MW Blackjack Creek in Texas and the Ohio Power Siting Board approved Firelands Wind’s application for the up to 297MW Emerson Creek. Elsewhere, Engie filed a permit application for the 200MW North Bend in South Dakota. And Mississippi’s first wind project, Tunica Windpower’s 200MW Delta, was approved.

In Brazil, Enel began commercial operations at the 716MW Lagoa dos Ventos, while Voltalia announced the full commissioning of its 152MW VSM3 and 59MW VSM4 wind farms. Nordex agreed to supply AES Brasil’s 313.5MW Cajuína in Rio Grande do Norte, as well as a 399MW development in Piaui, while Vestas agreed to supply an undisclosed 348MW project.

Activity remained brisk in Europe, too. Ørsted completed the acquisition of Brookfield Renewable Ireland. RES acquired part of DNV’s asset management activities across 412MW of UK and Irish operational assets. And Nexans was contracted by SSE, to supply 800km of 33kV underground cables for the 443MW Viking wind farm. In the Netherlands, first power was delivered from the 322MW Zeewolde. In Sweden, Hydro REIN and Eolus agreed to acquire Enercon’s up to 260MW Stor-Skälsjön. In Ukraine, Vestas agreed to supply the 372MW second phase of DTEK Renewables’ 500MW Tiligulska. And in Finland, Nordex agreed to supply four projects totalling 199.5MW, while Vestas agreed to supply the 192MW Lappfjärd, the 126MW Murtotuuli and the 102MW Närpiö Norrskogen. 

In the offshore sector, Vattenfall agreed the sale of a 49.5% stake in the 1.5GW Hollandse Kust Zuid to BASF. First power was delivered from the 950MW Moray East and turbine installation was completed at Vattenfall’s 605MW Kriegers Flak. Vestas agreed to supply Parkwind’s 257MW Arcadis Ost 1 and Bladt Industries was contracted by Saipem, to supply 64 transition pieces for the 448MW Courseulles-sur-Mer. Iberdrola outlined its plans for San Borondón, a 238MW floating offshore wind farm off Gran Canaria. And in Poland, Ocean Winds was awarded a contract-for-difference (CfD) for the 369.5MW B&C-Wind development. 

Elsewhere, Nordex was in advanced negotiations, regarding the supply of up to 180 N163/5.X turbines to the 923MW MacIntyre and 102.6MW Karara projects in Queensland, Australia. Commercial operations commenced at RATCH-Australia’s 226.8MW Collector. And Woolworths Group signed a 10-year PPA, linked to the under construction 244MW Bango. Suzlon was contracted by CLP India, to supply 120 turbines to a 252MW project in Gujarat. And Siemens Gamesa agreed to supply 79 of its 4.3MW turbines to Japan’s largest wind farm cluster, the 339.7MW Dohoku.

Monthly forecast

Xinxin Wang, Insights Analyst

From an estimated 760.5GW at present, we foresee total global installed wind capacity having reached almost 1,259GW by the end of the outlook period.

At 604GW, Asia-Pacific alone will account for almost half (48%) of this 2027 global total, with Europe’s 351.6GW and North America’s 220.8GW accounting for 28% and 17.5% shares, respectively. 

At 48.7GW and 33.7GW, Central & South America and The Middle East & Africa will account for the remainder.

Europe

From an estimated 213GW at present, we foresee Europe’s total installed capacity having topped 351GW by the end of the outlook period. 

From the current 55.4GW and 7.7GW, Germany’s end-2027 on- and offshore totals are forecast at 69.9GW and 13.7GW. Spain is expected to add 16GW of capacity between 2021 and 2027, taking its total to just over 43GW. 

The UK’s total is tipped to exceed 48GW by 2027, around half of which will be offshore. And France is expected to be host to 34.5GW by then, 4.5GW of which will be offshore.

North America

For North America as a whole, we foresee total installed capacity rising from the current 148.4GW, to just under 221GW by the end of the outlook period.

The USA will account for 193.7GW of this 2027 total, with its capacity set to rise from 127.8GW at present. On a state-by-state basis, our incremental capacity forecasts for Texas, Iowa, Oklahoma and California are largely unchanged, with their end 2027 totals set to reach 53.7GW, 14.6GW, 11.9GW and 7.1GW, respectively.

In Canada, we have revised our medium-term incremental capacity forecast, reflecting the addition to the pipeline of the 200MW Bekevar development in Saskatchewan. RES and Cowessess First Nation have secured a PPA with SaskPower for the project, with construction expected to begin in the summer of 2022 and completion due by the end of 2023.

In Mexico, meanwhile, we are forecasting total installed capacity of 9.8GW by the end of the outlook period. This would represent growth from the current 7GW. 

Asia-Pacific*

For the region as a whole, we expect to see total installed capacity having reached 604GW by the end of the outlook period. The current total is estimated at 352.6GW. 

From 293GW at present, China alone is expected to be host to 484GW by 2027, with its on- and offshore totals set to reach 445.5GW and 38.5GW respectively. 

In India, we foresee just over 20GW of capacity being added in the 2021-27 period, taking total installed capacity to 59GW by the end of the outlook period. And in Australia, we expect to see an approximate doubling of capacity by 2027, to 15.7GW.

Elsewhere, we have revised our 2022 incremental capacity forecast for Japan, reflecting the addition to the pipeline of the 113MW Sumita Tono and 32MW Azumakogen projects. Vestas has agreed to supply their turbines, with commissioning scheduled for the fourth quarter of 2022.

Central & South America

From a mid-2021 estimated total of 29.4GW, we expect to see Central and South America’s total installed capacity having reached 48.7GW by the end of 2027. 

Capacity growth in Brazil will see its total having topped 27GW by then. It currently hosts 19.3GW. In Chile, an increase to 8.1GW by 2027 is expected, up from the current 2.8GW. And in Argentina, capacity is tipped to almost double over the outlook period, to 5.6GW. 

Middle East & Africa

The Middle East and Africa currently hosts just over 17GW of wind capacity. By the end of the outlook period, we foresee this total having approximately doubled, to 33.7GW. 

Capacity growth in Turkey will see its total rise to 14.2GW by the end of 2027, up from an estimated 9.4GW at present. 

In South Africa, Egypt and Morocco, meanwhile, we expect to see capacity having reached 4.7GW, 5GW and 4GW respectively by then. This would represent growth from the current 2.6GW, 1.5GW and 1.6GW.   

Elsewhere in the region, we have revised our 2021 incremental capacity forecast, reflecting the completion of the 100MW Boulenouar in Mauritania.

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