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Windpower Intelligence Global Forecast: June 2021

Below we present our latest global capacity forecasts to 2027.

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Project summary

David Carr, Data Editor

May saw new capacity commissioned, turbine purchase agreements signed and assets changing hands. In the USA, Liberty Utilities’ 302.5MW Neosho Ridge in Kansas and EDPR's 209.4MW Reloj del Sol in Texas and 104MW Crossing Trails in Colorado were brought online. Pattern Energy and Uniper signed a 15-year PPA, linked to the 1,050MW Western Spirit Wind in New Mexico. GE agreed to supply turbines to the 302MW Lincoln Land Wind in Illinois. And Enel announced that construction had commenced at its 263MW Ranchland in Texas, 200MW Alta Farms in Illinois and 140MW Rockhaven in Oklahoma. Meanwhile, the 800MW Vineyard Wind received the Record of Decision from the US Bureau of Ocean Energy Management. In Brazil, EDF's 344MW Folha Larga Norte complex was fully commissioned. And Vestas agreed to supply Omega Energia's 212MW Assuruá 4.

Activity also remained brisk in Europe. In Spain, Repsol began the construction of its 860MW Delta II complex. In Sweden, financial close was achieved for the 372MW Björnberget. TRIG agreed to acquire 50% stakes in the 242MW Ranasjö and Salsjö projects and Siemens Gamesa agreed to supply their 6.2MW turbines. In Finland, financial close was achieved for the 188MW Karhunnevankangas. In France, BayWa acquired Enerpole and with it, a project portfolio comprising 300MW of solar and 300MW of wind power. And in Italy, ERG and TIM signed a 10-year PPA, for the supply of 3.4TWh between 2022 and 2031.

In the offshore sector, GE finalised a deal for 87 Haliade-X 14MW turbines for the 1.2GW Dogger Bank C, while Vestas agreed to supply 50 V174-9.5 MW turbines to Iberdrola’s 476.25MW Baltic Eagle. RWE outlined its plans for the 2GW Lighthouse Offshore-to-X project in the North Sea. And Equinor, RWE and Hydro REIN signed a collaboration agreement, regarding the development of offshore wind capacity off Norway. The first of the 1.4GW Hornsea Two’s 165 SG 8.0-167DD turbines was installed. And Ørsted completed the divestment of 50% of the 752MW Borssele I & II, to Norges Bank Investment Management. Meanwhile, Equinor’s and Polenergia’s Bałtyk II and Bałtyk III projects were awarded CfDs and PGE and Ørsted closed their 1GW Baltica 3 and 1.5GW Baltica 2 joint venture agreement.

Elsewhere, ACWA Power signed an implementation agreement for the development of the 1.5GW Karakalpakstan wind farm in Uzbekistan. It would become Central Asia’s largest wind farm. In China, CGN’s 480MW Wenxing project in Yunnan Province was granted the permission to build. And the 200MW Luobei in Heilongjiang was brought online. In Australia, CWP Renewables’ up to 97-turbine Uungula project received Development Consent from the NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment. And Vestas secured an order for 28 V162-5.6 MW turbines for the 157MW Kaban Green Power Hub in Queensland.

Monthly forecast

Xinxin Wang, Insights Analyst

We have made some revisions to our incremental capacity forecasts, largely as a result of some newly announced projects being added to the pipeline. For the world as a whole and from an estimated 756.4GW at present, we now expect to see just over 1,257GW in place by the end of 2027. 

At 603.5GW, 351.4GW and 220.5GW, Asia-Pacific, Europe and North America are expected to account for 48%, 28% and 17.5% shares respectively, of this global total. Central & South America’s 48.3GW and The Middle East & Africa’s 33.6GW will account for the remainder.

Europe

From an estimated 212.4GW at present, we expect to see Europe’s total on- and offshore capacity having reached 351.4GW by the end of 2027. 

Germany’s end-2027 on- and offshore totals are forecast at 69.9GW and 13.7GW, representing growth from the current 55.2GW and 7.7GW. In Spain, we foresee just over 43GW being in place by the end of the outlook period, around 16GW more than the current total. 

And in the UK, we have raised our long-term offshore capacity forecast, to 23.8GW. This reflects the addition to the pipeline of the proposed 2GW Central North Sea and 1GW West of Shetland developments. They are being planned by Cerulean Winds and could become operational towards the end of the outlook period. 

North America

From an estimated 147.5GW at present, we foresee North America’s total installed capacity having reached 220.5GW by the end of 2027.

In the USA, we expect to see just under 194GW in place by then, representing growth from the current 126.8GW. On a state-by-state basis, Texas’ capacity is tipped to rise from 34.6GW, to 53.7GW by the end of the outlook period. And Iowa’s and Oklahoma’s totals are expected to have reached 14.6GW and 11.9GW by then, up from the current 11.8GW and 9.6GW. 

In Canada, we expect to see modest capacity growth to 2027, to just over 17GW. Canada currently hosts 13.6GW. And in Mexico, we foresee total installed capacity having reached 9.8GW by the end of the outlook period. Its current total is 7GW.

Asia-Pacific*

For the region as a whole, we expect to see total installed capacity having topped 603GW by the end of the outlook period.

In China, we foresee on- and offshore capacity increasing from the current 281.7GW and 10.4GW, to 445.2GW and 38.5GW by 2027. Our forecasts for India, Australia and Japan, meanwhile, are largely unchanged and by the end of 2027, we expect them to host 59.1GW, 15.7GW and 16.7GW, respectively.

Elsewhere in the region, we have made some revisions to our incremental capacity forecasts, largely reflecting the addition to the pipeline of some newly identified projects. Among them, the 160MW Balaoi & Caunayan in the Philippines. Set to comprise 18 SG 5.0-145 and 14 SG 5.0-132 turbines, it is being developed by UPC Renewables and AC Energy.

Central & South America

In Central & South America, we foresee around 20GW of incremental capacity growth over the outlook period, taking total capacity to just over 48GW by the end of 2027.    

In Brazil, we foresee around 9GW being added, taking its total to just over 27GW. In Chile, 5GW of incremental capacity is forecast, while Argentina’s total is expected to have reached 5.6GW by the end of 2027, up from around 3GW at present. 

Middle East & Africa

From just over 17GW at present, we expect to see the Middle East & Africa’s total installed capacity having reached 33.6GW by the end of 2027.

Turkey is expected to have installed over 14GW by then, around 5GW more than its mid-2021 total. In South Africa and Egypt, we foresee 4.7GW and 5GW being in place by the end of the outlook period. They currently host an estimated 2.6GW and 1.5GW. And in Morocco, we foresee end-2027 capacity having reached 4GW, representing growth from the current 1.5GW.  

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