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Windpower Intelligence Global Forecast: May 2021

Below we present our latest global capacity forecasts to 2027.

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Project summary

David Carr, Data Editor

April saw new capacity commissioned, turbine purchase agreements signed and assets changing hands. In the USA, M&A activity was much in evidence. OMERS Infrastructure agreed the sale of its 49% stake in a 596MW portfolio to Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure, while NextEra Energy Partners agreed to acquire a 391MW portfolio from Brookfield Renewable. In Illinois, Vitol acquired the 240MW Big Sky Wind, while EDPR agreed the sale to Greencoat Capital, of 55% stakes in the 205MW Bright Stalk and 200MW Harvest Ridge. And in West Virginia, Clearway Energy acquired the 264MW Mount Storm. Elsewhere, RES' 492MW Maverick Creek in Texas began commercial operations, as did three of DTE Energy's wind farms in Michigan and Enel’s 269MW Dolores in Mexico. And in Peru, the Ministry of Energy and Mines gave the go-ahead to Energía Renovable del Sur, for its 131.1MW San Juan project, while Siemens Gamesa agreed to supply 50 SG 5.0-145 turbines to Engie’s 260MW Punta Lomitas. 

M&A activity was also in evidence in Europe. Ørsted agreed to acquire Brookfield Renewable Ireland. Northland Power acquired a 540MW Spanish wind and solar portfolio. And Norges Bank Investment Management agreed to acquire a 50% stake in Ørsted’s 752MW Borssele I & II. In Sweden, OX2 agreed to acquire Stora Enso’s 170MW Hälsingeskogen project and OX2 sold its 86MW Karskruv project to Lundin Energy. Wood was appointed owner’s engineer at Luxcara’s 753MW Önusberget. And Amazon signed a long-term PPA, linked to the 374MW Kallamossen part of the development. In Finland, Neoen achieved financial close for its 404MW Mutkalampi project, while Vestas agreed to supply its 69 turbines. And in Germany, GE agreed to supply 50 x 6MW turbines to EP New Energies.  

In the offshore sector, CfDs were awarded for 2.9GW in the Polish Baltic Sea. Ørsted and Enefit signed an MoU regarding development in the Gulf of Riga. And ESB and Equinor outlined their plans for the 1.4GW Moneypoint floating project in Irish waters. Van Oord confirmed its foundations and inter-array cables installation contract at RWE’s 1.4GW Sofia. And turbine installation reached the halfway stage at Vattenfall’s 605MW Kriegers Flak. 

In China, construction was under way at the 1.6GW Urad Rear Banner development in Inner Mongolia. Total agreed to acquire a 23% stake in the 640MW Yunlin offshore wind farm in the Taiwan Strait. And in Japan, Wind Power Group, Tokyo Gas and Vena Energy were set to accelerate the development of the up to 159.6MW Kashima offshore project. Elsewhere, Masdar and the Government of Uzbekistan agreed to extend Zarafshan's capacity, from 500MW to up to 1.5GW. And the World Bank’s IFC and Azerbaijan's Ministry of Energy signed an MoU, aimed at developing the country’s offshore wind sector.

Monthly forecast

Xinxin Wang, Insights Analyst

From the current 751GW, we foresee total global operational wind capacity increasing to 1,254.3GW by the end of the outlook period.

Asia-Pacific’s 603.9GW will account for almost half of this end-2027 global total. Between them, Europe’s 348GW and North America’s 220.8GW will account for 45%, while Central & South America’s 48.3GW and the Middle East and Africa’s  33.3GW will account for the remainder.

Europe

From just over 212GW at present, we foresee Europe hosting 348GW of operational wind power by the end of 2027. On a country-by-country basis, we have made some minor revisions to our incremental capacity forecasts, largely reflecting the addition of some newly identified projects to the pipeline.

In Germany, we foresee on- and offshore capacity having reached 69.9GW and 13.7GW respectively by the end of the outlook period. This would represent growth from the current estimated totals of 55.2GW and 7.7GW.

In the UK, the addition of the 58.8MW Ballygilbert and 48MW Mynydd Carn-y-Cefn projects to the pipeline means we have revised our medium and longer-term incremental capacity forecasts. For the UK as a whole, we foresee on- and offshore capacity having reached 24.4GW and 20.8GW by the end of 2027, up from the current 13.7GW and 10.4GW.

Elsewhere, the addition to the pipeline of the Jasenovik project in Kosovo, means we have revised our long-term incremental capacity forecast for the ‘other’ European countries. StubllaEnergy is planning to develop a 170MW wind-solar hybrid plant, at a site near Pristina. It would comprise a 25-turbine, 132MW wind farm and 38MW of solar PV capacity.

North America

From the current estimated total of just over 145GW, we expect to see North America having installed just under 221GW of wind power capacity by the end of 2027.

The USA will account for almost 194GW of this, with its capacity expected to rise from the current 124.7GW. 

On a state-by-state basis, we foresee Texas’ total having reached 53.5GW by the end of the outlook period, up from 34.1GW at present. Iowa’s end-2027 total is forecast at 14.5GW, while Oklahoma is expected to be host to 12GW by then. Their current installed capacities are 11.8GW and 9.4GW, respectively. 

For the ‘other’ U.S. states, we have revised our 2023 incremental capacity forecast, reflecting Apex Clean Energy’s reactivation of the 297.5MW Grady Martin project in New Mexico.

Meanwhile, we expect to see Canada’s current 13.6GW total increasing to 17.1GW by 2027 and Mexico’s 7GW increasing by 2.8GW over the outlook period.

Asia-Pacific*

From the current estimated total of 348.3GW, we foresee Asia-Pacific’s total installed capacity having topped 603GW by the end of 2027.

China will account for 484.1GW of this, with its on- and offshore totals expected to have reached 445.6GW and 38.5GW respectively, by the end of the outlook period. This would represent growth from the current 279.7GW and 9.7GW.

We expect India’s total capacity to have topped 59GW by 2027. It currently hosts an estimated 39GW. Australia’s total will roughly double by 2027, to just over 15GW. And Japan’s will exceed 16GW, buoyed by the addition of around 6GW of new capacity, in each of the on- and offshore sectors.

Central & South America

From 28.2GW at present, we expect to see 48.3GW of installed wind capacity in Central & South America by the end of 2027.

In Brazil alone, we expect to see capacity rising from the current 18.1GW, to just over 27GW by the end of the outlook period. 

In Chile, we foresee an approximate tripling of capacity, to 7.9GW. And in Argentina, capacity is expected to have reached 5.6GW by 2027, up from the 3GW that the country currently hosts.

Middle East & Africa

From the current estimated total of 17.1GW, we foresee the Middle East & Africa’s total installed capacity having reached 33.3GW by the end of 2027.

From around 9.4GW currently, we expect to see Turkey’s capacity having topped 14GW by the end of the outlook period. And in South Africa, Egypt and Morocco, end-2027 totals of 4.7GW, 5GW and 3.9GW respectively are forecast.

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