Wood Mackenzie Power and Renewables (WMPR) predicts an annual average of 77GW new capacity being installed in this period, including 15.5GW of new offshore wind per year, as the global wind power fleet grows by 112%.
The world’s two largest wind power markets, China and the US, are expected to contribute the bulk of this new capacity despite near-term challenges created by the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic.
Elsewhere, compliance with the European Union’s climate and energy targets should drive 225GW of new additions in Europe, the analysts predict.
The Middle East and Africa, and Latin America are expected to witness 23% and 9% compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) respectively, while Asia excluding China is expected to add 107GW in the forecast period, including 18GW offshore.
US
The Covid-19 pandemic will disrupt supply chains and project execution this year, with the impact likely to keenly felt in the US and China where developers are rushing to meet deadlines to claim government support, the analysts stated.
WMPR downgraded its forecast for 2020 installations in light of the upheaval, now predicting 73GW of new capacity this year — a 5GW decline from projections it made before the spread of the virus.
In the US, capacity additions will be increasingly reliant on state targets as the nationwide production tax credit (PTC) support scheme expires, research director Luke Lewandowski said.
He believes the US' nascent offshore wind sector will take off in this period, with 23.3GW due to be added in the next decade.
The US is expected to have an average annual growth rate of 8.7GW - onshore and offshore wind, combined - in this period.
Meanwhile, China is expected to add 250GW of new capacity in this period, of which about 15% will be offshore wind, Wood Mackenzie stated.
Other regions
If countries comply with EU energy and climate targets for 2030, 225GW of new wind power capacity could be installed in Europe, with offshore wind accounting for a quarter of the continent’s growth.
Land constraints in mature markets will push development offshore, with 32% of western Europe’s and 43% of northern Europe’s respective growth being at sea.
Asia Pacific, excluding-China, will contribute the next highest capacity growth, with 107GW added in the next ten years, including 18GW offshore.
India could account for the majority (51%) of this growth as the country aims for aggressive expansion targets, including 60GW by 2022.
Meanwhile, annual additions in Latin America are due to average 4.1GW during this period, with installations growing at a CAGR of 9% between 2020 and 2029.
Lewandowski said the growth would be driven by the “development of the free market in Brazil, the execution of inaugural auction awards in Colombia, the opportunity presented by coal retirements in Chile and increasing demand from the C&I (commercial and industrial) segment in Mexico”.
