Analysts at Wood Mackenzie expect Vestas, Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy (SGRE) and GE Renewable Energy to account for 48GW of newly commisioned turbines in 2028, up from 32GW in 2019.
Their increasing dominance in the market is part of a wider consolidation of market share among a small number of turbine OEMs.
"Vestas, SGRE and GE will draw upon strategic relationships with major asset owners to execute large-scale projects while also investing in new projects and technologies," explained principal analyst at Wood Mackenzie Shashi Barla.
Vestas is expected to average a 20% market share over the next five years, Wood Mackenzie noted.
Meanwhile, SGRE will surpass 100GW of cumulative installed capacity by the end of this year, becoming only the second OEM, after Vestas, to reach this milestone.
Goldwind will take the second highest market share in 2020, boosted by its leading position in its native China and large projects in Australia and Canada.
Vestas, SGRE, GE and Goldwind will each install around 10GW in 2020 due to surging market activity in the US and China, the analysts forecast.
Regional players
Barla added that while OEM giants such as Vestas, Goldwind, SGRE and GE are expected to consolidate their leading positions, regional players will "face an uphill battle to compete", citing the examples of struggling manufacturers, Suzlon and Senvion.
Suzlon has failed to find a bailout partner, pushing the company into "deeper trouble", Wood Mackenzie stated, and Senvion has offloaded some European assets to SGRE, while continuing to search for investors for its other business units.
However, the analysts expect Nordex and Enercon — despite the latter’s launch of a transformation programme as it struggles following the collapse of its native German market — to strengthen their presence by increasing investments in new wind turbine technologies.
Wood Mackenzie added that Nordex is due to install 5.5GW of average annual capacity in 2020 and 2021 — up 40% from 2019.
Offshore
The analysts expect a "flurry" of activity in the offshore wind sector between 2019 and 2028.
Wood Mackenzie forecast SGRE — with more than 15GW of backlogged orders — to remain the market leader during this period.
However, it predicted significant growth for MHI Vestas — with more than 7GW of firm orders secured to date — breaking into the top ten global OEMs by 2023 and reaching number five by 2027-28, becoming the only pure-play offshore manufacturer in the top five.
Meanwhile, Ming Yang — which signed orders for 4.5GW last year — is due to sustain its leading position in the Chinese offshore market in the long-term through "close relationships" in the Guangdong province, China’s largest offshore wind market.
Wood Mackenzie also noted GE has a strong position in the offshore wind sector, with orders for 4.8GW off the coasts of the UK and the US.
China
The phase-out of China’s feed-in tariff is expected to prompt a surge in order volume in 2019 and 2020, reaching 56GW, the analysts predicted.
In 2020, ten of the top 15 turbine OEMs will be Chinese, Wood Mackenzie added.
"This rush will provide ample room for tier-two players, including CRRC and Windey, to explore turbine supply opportunities, as several larger players may be capacity-constrained," Barla noted.
Goldwind, which already accounts for more than half of Chinese OEM exports, is expanding its nacelle manufacturing capacity to 14GW by 2020 and has earmarked a quarter of this capacity (3.5GW) for exports, the analysts added.
Meanwhile, DEC, which has struggled with concerns about product quality is now focussing on direct-drive technology and has secured more than 4GW of orders for installation in 2020 and 2021.
