A top three of Vestas, Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy and GE Renewable Energy are forecast to control more than half the global market by this date, while Chinese OEMs Goldwind and Envision will complete the top five due to their international expansion in Latin America, Africa and Asia-Pacific.
The top five’s market share has risen from 47% in 2014 to 57% in 2017, and 66% in 2018, and is projected to reach 68% in 2020, according to research from Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables (WMPR).
European manufacturers Enercon and Nordex will struggle to compete with the leading pack, WMPR forecast.
This is despite an increased order activity over the last 12 months and the analysts’ expectation of a strong performance in 2020-21 outside of their core European markets.
Siemens Gamesa and MHI Vestas are expected to continue to dominate the offshore sector, holding a combined market share of more than 60% by 2023, according to WMPR’s report, Global wind turbine OEM market share forecasts H1 2019.
Their track records will help keep them ahead of rival GE, which needs to focus on commercialising its 12MW Haliade-X turbine in forthcoming auctions to win a greater market share, the analysts stated.
GE has targeted the Chinese offshore sector with the commissioning of three 6MW Haliade turbines off Fujian last year, and its plans to set up a manufacturing facility in Guangdong — the country’s largest offshore province.
But it is a market dominated by domestic players, WMPR noted: Sewind, Goldwind, Ming Yang and Envision are projected to control more than 90% of the market by 2023.
In the near-term, the US will remain the largest market for global leaders, WMPR’s analysts believe.
"Siemens Gamesa is working to revive its prospects in the US before the federal renewable electricity production tax credit (PTC) fades, while NextEra and Invenergy are maintaining their historical preference for GE as a turbine supplier," noted principal analyst Shashi Barla.
"Vestas has been successful with utilities and IPPs from both the US and Europe, which is illustrated in large volumes of turbines being shipped to MidAmerican, Xcel, EDF and Avangrid."
The Danish manufacturer dominates globally due to its geographical diversification and strong presence in emerging auction markets, such as Russia — where it opened a blade factory and has plans for further expansion — the Middle East and Africa, Barla said.
Siemens Gamesa, meanwhile, has found success in European markets such as Spain and Turkey, and emerging African markets such as Egypt and Morocco. This will help the company strengthen its presence in the regions, WMPR suggested.
Nordex’s success in its native Germany over the last five years has been due to its focus on low-wind turbines — the N117/2400, N117/3X00 and N131/3X00 models, Barla said.
The manufacturer is likely to repeat low-wind success with the new Delta4000/5000 N149 series, he added.
In India, Suzlon and Siemens Gamesa currently have a combined market share of more than 50%. But Barla expects the Indian market to surge after two years in the doldrums, creating room for new players.
One contender could be Vestas, which has received 1.1GW of orders in India since 2017 — a record for the company in the country. Barla attributed this to its local blade manufacturing in India.