The Indian government’s drive to increase renewables capacity will see the country’s installed capacity more than double by 2028, researchers Fitch Solutions forecast.
Meanwhile, Denmark’s move to an auction system and government plans for offshore capacity additions mean it will see steady growth in the next decade, Fitch added in its latest research note.
The researchers also highlight Poland, where the government has relaxed previously stringent legislation that negatively impacted onshore projects, as a market to watch in the coming years.
Land acquisition and grid connectivity pose hurdles to growth in India, but the government has made efforts to overcome these obstacles, Fitch noted.
The country’s wind power fleet is concentrated in Tamil Nadu and Gujarat.
Therefore, boosting transmission and substation capacity within these states and linking with others will be key to efficiently integrating wind in the future, Fitch noted.
"Strong government support for the sector will culminate in intensifying efforts to address structural issues plaguing the sector," the researchers added.
Fitch Solutions predicted India will not meet its target of 60GW installed by 2022. However, it does expect nearly 50GW of new capacity to be added over the nest ten years.
By the end of the forecast period, India will have 82.3GW installed. This is up from 35GW today, according to Windpower Intelligence, the research and data division of Windpower Monthly.
Wind power will remain a dominant source of electricity output in Denmark, Fitch predicted.
The researchers noted renewables competed on the same basis as conventional power sources in an auction in December 2018, when several onshore wind projects were successful in securing a grid connection.
Fitch also highlight offshore as a key growth area for Denmark.
Fitch expected a 3% year-on-year growth over the next decade in Denmark.
This is down from 8% year-on-year growth between 2008 and 2018, with the slowdown due to the "mature nature of the market", the researchers stated.
By the end of the period, Fitch forecast 7.9GW of installed capacity in Denmark. This is up from 5.75GW today, according to Windpower Intelligence.
Fitch described Poland as a "market to watch" due to the government’s relaxation of previously stringent legislation and progress on large offshore developments.
The government cut property tax paid on wind farms in July 2018, reducing costs for investors, Fitch noted.
And earlier this year, the country’s deputy energy minister announced the government’s intention to soften distance rules for onshore wind turbines in some cases — though it is as-yet unclear precisely how this will be done.
In light of restrictive requirements and taxes for onshore development, Poland’s offshore sector had previously been seen as more viable.
Fitch noted that a joint venture of Equinor and Polenergia is developing the Baltyk Srodkowy II and III wind farms (600MW each), for example. Large project such as this will add to the country’s capacity in the reporting period.
The researchers forecast an annual average growth rate of just under 4%, with total capacity reaching 8.6GW by the end of 2028. This is
This is up from 5.8GW today, according to Windpower Intelligence.