India’s shift to an auction system and the government’s ambition to tender 10GW annually will help drive this growth, according to analysts at Make Consulting, part of the Wood Group.
In Australia, initiatives at state level will drive growth while the governing Liberal party feud with the opposition Labor party over the final design of the proposed national energy guarantee (NEG) scheme.
The analysts also expect Japan to reduce the time spent on lengthy environmental impact assessments and overcome grid uncertainty.
Meanwhile, Make anticipates Taiwan will hold further auctions post-2025, following the commissioning of projects tendered in 2018.
The analysts predict cumulative capacity in the region will reach 141GW in its ten-year outlook period — up from just under 46GW today.
India
In a research note, Make describes India as being "mostly reliant on large-scale auctions", and links the shift to tenders as a potential driver of record growth.
India held its first auction in February 2017 and has since held further tenders at state level, as well as at national level.
The government now plans to tender at least 10GW per year, and to have 60GW of wind power capacity installed by 2022.
The shift to a tendering system has also seen prices fall — from a pre-auction feed-in tariff (FiT) rate of INR 4-6kWh ($0.058-0.087/kWh) to the record-low rate of INR 2.43/kWh ($0.037/kWh) in the Gujarat state auction in December 2017.
India has just over 33GW installed, according to Windpower Intelligence, the research and data division of Windpower Monthly.
Australia
Political infighting over the final design of the country’s National Energy Guarantee (NEG) scheme — a policy proposed to reduce emissions and ensure reliability by encouraging retailers to invest in dispatchable energy supply — prevents the national government from promoting growth, Make claimed.
There is also uncertainty over the replacement of the national renewable energy target (RET) in Australia, and this hinders potential growth, the analysts added.
Australia is set to surpass its 33TWh by 2020 RET ahead of schedule. However, this target was reduced from 41TWh in 2015.
Plans to replace the RET with a clean energy target, which required energy retailers to ensure the supply of dispatchable energy and lower emissions, were scrapped in November 2017.
State governments, however, have been more successful in promoting wind power and enabling renewable investment, Make said.
South Australia, for example, leads the country with 1.65GW installed and met its own 50% renewable energy target in 2017 — eight years ahead of schedule.
Nationally, a record $9 billion (A$11.8 billion) was invested in wind and solar projects last year — an increase of 150% year-on-year, according to a report by the country’s Clean Energy Council in June.
Australia has just over 4.5GW installed, according to Windpower Intelligence.
Japan
Make pointed to Japan’s tough environmental impact assessment procedures, concerns about grid accessibility, and lack of mechanism for consumers to sign direct power purchase agreements with wind power producers, as potential obstacles to growth.
However, the analysts remain buoyant over the government "formalising new regulations to support more offshore wind development".
Make expects the EIA time to be reduced, grid constraints to be eased, and the reforms to facilitate more choice for consumers.
Japan has just over 3.4GW installed, according to Windpower Intelligence.
Taiwan
The analysts described Taiwan as an "outlier" for its wind power growth being reliant on offshore wind.
Taiwan’s reputation as a future offshore wind hub has been growing with developers opening offices, forming joint ventures and securing financial backing for projects.
The government is targeting 5.5GW of offshore wind by 2025, and between April and June 2018 it awarded 5.4GW across 14 sites.
Make stated it expects further auctions to cater for growth post-2025 — by which stage all projects already awarded are due to be commissioned.
It also expects the emergence of a domestic supply chain to support other markets throughout Asia-Pacific.
Commercial lobbying group, the European Chamber of Commerce Taiwan, has previously voiced concerns about projects’ bankability, and the reliability of the grid.
Taiwan has under 700MW of operational capacity, Windpower Intelligence figures show.
Competition
In the rest of Asia-Pacific region, wind power prices are increasingly competitive, Make stated.
This is leading policy makers to reconsider the level of financial support for wind power and to move towards auction systems.
The Asia Pacific region (excluding China) has nearly 46GW installed, Windpower Intelligence added.
World leader China has more than 168GW installed.
