Make upgrades global outlook by 3%

WORLDWIDE: Analysts at Make Consulting have upgraded their ten-year outlook, now forecasting average annual capacity additions of more than 67GW between 2018 and 2027.

Large upgrades in countries like Japan caused a 3% increase worldwide (pic: Pattern)
Large upgrades in countries like Japan caused a 3% increase worldwide (pic: Pattern)

Multi-gigawatt upgrades in several countries drove the increase from the market analysis firm’s forecast one quarter ago, when it predicted 65GW per year over the same period — an increase of 3%.

The global up-tick comes despite incentive mechanisms expiring in several markets, "policy-driven downgrades" in Iran, "increasingly dubious export opportunities" in Canada, and downward adjustments in Germany, France, Belgium, and Turkey.

Americas

Three north-eastern US states tendering a total of 1.4GW of offtake capacity in Q2 solidified and boosted growth expectations for the next decade, Make stated in its Q2/2018 Global Wind Power Market Outlook Update.

However, as north-eastern US states becomes more focussed on offshore wind, "increasingly dubious export opportunities" in eastern Canada puts pressure on project execution in Ontario and Alberta.

Overall, Make raised its forecast for North America by 10% compared to the previous quarter.

The analysts downgraded their outlook for Mexico by 24% compared to Q1 due to modest load-growth expectations and an anticipated change in presidential leadership.

This overwhelms more modest, project-level adjustments elsewhere in Latin America, downgrading the sub-region by 7% over the next ten years.

Europe

The outlook improved in northern Europe due to a 500MW-plus upgrade in the UK — supported by more renewable obligation-qualified projects than were identified in Q1 — and an upgrade of nearly 500MW in Norway, where two projects reached final investment decision (FID).

Greater repowering activity and the conclusion of a second auction drove up Make’s expectations for the Netherlands by nearly 600MW quarter-on-quarter,

By contrast, Germany’s most recent onshore wind auction was undersubscribed and interest in repowering waned, while downward adjustments were also made in France and Belgium.

Greece announced its first wind auctions in May, which led to Make upgrading its outlook for the country by 31% — the only meaningful change in southern Europe from Q1.

However, economic weakness in Turkey resulted in a downgrade there in Q2.

Elsewhere, Kazakhstan launched an auction programme that eventually awarded 620MW of wind power capacity and early development work was carried out in Armenia and Romania, inspiring Make’s confidence in market growth in the region over the next decade.

Middle East and Africa

The US’ withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal prompted Make to lower its expectations for the country by 47%, while the analysts lauded "positive development" in Saudi Arabia and Lebanon, where the government is planning to tender 300MW.

Wind PPAs were signed in Egypt and South Africa, spurring growth in markets that had previously faltered. In each country, more than 1GW was added to the national outlook, while the forecast for Africa rose 9% quarter-on-quarter.

Asia-Pacific

Despite the announcement of an auction regime in key wind power bases in China, the world leader’s outlook remains largely unchanged, as recent policy annoncements had been assumed in the previous quarter’s analysis.

India, meanwhile, upped its renewable capacity target to 227GW by 2022, building on a 175GW by 2020 goal. This prompted Make to increase its ten-year outlook for the country by 8GW.

The analysts expect Japan to decrease the time taken for environmental impact assessments and to commit to build more offshore project, and so upgraded its ten-year outlook by 3GW.

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