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Windpower Intelligence Global Forecast: February 2018

Below we present our latest global capacity forecasts to 2024.

Download the report: Global Forecast February 2018

Project summary

January saw additional wind capacity coming online, projects approved, assets changing hands and turbine purchase agreements signed. In the USA, E.ON commenced commercial operations at the 228MW Bruenning’s Breeze in Texas and the 306MW Radford’s Run in Illinois. It also began construction work at its 201MW Stella project in Texas. Avangrid Renewables started commercial operations at the 131MW Tule in California, the 298MW El Cabo in New Mexico and the 75MW Twin Buttes II in Colorado and EDF Energies Nouvelles announced the commissioning of the 200MW Red Pine in Minnesota. Lincoln Clean Energy achieved financial close for its 300MW Tahoka development in Texas, Invenergy completed financing for its 202.5MW Upstream Wind Energy Center in Nebraska and Quinbrook completed financing for the 200MW first phase of its Persimmon project in Oklahoma. Quinbrook also acquired a 223MW wind portfolio from subsidiaries of NextEra Energy Resources. Meanwhile, sPower placed an order with Vestas, for 2MW and 4MW compatible turbine components that will enable 400MW of future project development. In Canada, the 224MW Nicolas-Riou in Québec was brought online, while in Mexico, Enel Green Power began construction of the 93MW Salitrillos project in Tamaulipas.

Activity remained buoyant in Europe, too. In Germany, innogy and Primus Energie signed a cooperation agreement regarding a 400MW project pipeline in Thuringia. In Spain, Acciona Energía agreed to supply Unilever with 23 GWh of renewable energy this year. In Sweden, Eolus signed grid connection agreements with E.ON Elnät, for the 163.4MW Kråktorpet and 68.4MW Nylandsbergen wind farms. And Nordex agreed to supply 31 N131/3900 turbines to Falck Renewables’ 43.2MW Åliden and 72MW Brattmyrliden projects. But in Norway, the Ministry of Petroleum and Energy rejected Hovatn Aust Vindkraftverk’s application for the up to 120MW Hovatn Aust project. Meanwhile, GE agreed to supply 26 turbines to the 100MW first phase of DTEK’s 200MW Primorskaya project in Zaporizhia, Ukraine. And Masdar agreed to acquire 49% of Krnovo Green Energy, a subsidiary of Akuo Energy, which owns the 72MW Krnovo wind farm in Montenegro. In the offshore sector, foundations installation commenced at the 1.2GW Hornsea Project One, first power was delivered from the 330MW Walney Extension East, Partners Group agreed to acquire a 45% stake in the 730MW Borssele III & IV and Ailes Marines received final confirmation that it could change the turbine model at the 496MW Saint Brieuc, to the SG8.0-167 DD.

In China, Hubei Development and Reform Commission approved five projects, while Anhui Development and Reform Commission approved seven. And Siemens Gamesa agreed to supply 24 G114-2.0 MW turbines to Datang’s Yangshugou project in Liaoning and 24 G97-2.0 MW turbines to CGN’s Wohushan project in Shandong. Meanwhile, Siemens Gamesa also announced that it had won 326MW of turbine orders in India and Nexif Energy broke ground at the site of its 212MW Lincoln Gap project in South Australia.

Ten largest newly online wind farms
Turbine contracts by supplier and country, January 2018 (MW)

Monthly forecast

Our 2018 and 2019 global incremental capacity forecasts have been raised, largely reflecting the addition to the pipeline of several newly identified projects in Europe, Asia-Pacific and the emerging markets. We have also raised our long-term global forecast and by the end of 2024, we now expect total installed capacity to have reached 842GW. 

Europe’s short-, medium- and long-term incremental capacity forecasts have been revised and by the end of 2024, the region’s total installed capacity is expected to have reached 260.1GW. For North America, we have lowered our 2018 incremental capacity forecast, but those for 2019 and out to 2024 have been raised slightly. By the end of 2024, we now expect North America’s total installed capacity to have reached 142.5GW.

Asia-Pacific’s 2018 and 2019 incremental capacity forecasts have also been raised slightly, while that for 2020 is unchanged. We have raised our 2021-24 forecast for the region and by the end of 2024, we expect Asia-Pacific’s total installed capacity to have reached 374.1GW.

The 2018, 2019 and long term forecasts for newly installed capacity in the emerging markets have all been raised and by the end of 2024, the emerging markets are expected to have installed a total of 65.4GW.

Europe

We have revised our European incremental capacity forecasts and by the end of 2024, we now expect the region to have installed just over 260GW. 

We have increased Germany’s 2018 incremental capacity forecast, largely reflecting the expectation that the 350MW Wikinger offshore wind farm will come online shortly, a little later than previously envisaged. Its grid connection was completed at the end of last year. Our 2021-24 incremental capacity forecast for France has been raised, as we now expect the 496MW Saint Brieuc to be fully operational, only by 2023. It is being developed at a site in the English Channel. 

For Sweden, our medium- and long-term newly installed capacity forecasts have been raised, largely reflecting the addition of three newly identified projects: the 163.4MW Kråktorpet, 72MW Brattmyrliden and 35MW Enviksberget. Elsewhere, our 2019 incremental capacity forecast for Portugal has been raised slightly, due to the addition to the pipeline of the 49MW Penacova development. Planned for a site in Coimbra, it has recently been granted the permission to build.

Europe capacity forecast (MW)

 

North America

We have slightly revised North America’s short-, medium- and long-term incremental capacity forecasts and for the region as a whole, total installed capacity is forecast to have reached 142.5GW by the end of 2024. 

Our 2019 forecast for Texas has been raised, reflecting the addition to the pipeline of the newly identified 201MW Stella. Under construction at a site in Kenedy County, E.ON’s project will comprise 67 Nordex 3MW turbines. For Iowa, our 2018 forecast has been lowered and that for 2019 raised, as we now expect EDP Renewables’ 200MW Turtle Creek to come online next year. Our forecasts for Oklahoma have also been revised, in part reflecting the addition to the pipeline of the newly identified 158.6MW Silver Spoke. For the US as a whole, our long-term forecast has been raised and by the end of 2024, we now expect total installed capacity will have reached 123.8MW. 

We have raised our 2018 forecast for Quebec, reflecting the 224MW Nicolas-Riou having come online in January. And for Canada as a whole, we expect total installed capacity to have reached 18.7GW by the end of the forecast period.

North America capacity forecast (MW)

 

Asia-Pacific

We have raised our 2018, 2019 and 2021-24 newly installed capacity forecasts for Asia- Pacific, mainly reflecting the addition of newly identified and re-activated projects. For the region as a whole, total installed capacity is forecast to have reached 374.1GW by the end of 2024. 

Our short-, medium- and long-term incremental capacity forecasts for China have been raised, reflecting some newly identified projects being added to the pipeline. They include the 60MW Lingtian, 50.6MW Yongjihe, 48.4MW Hongjianshan, 100MW Shanghe, 100MW Dongfang and 100MW Tangjiazhuang developments. By the end of the forecast period, China’s total installed capacity is expected to have reached 290.2GW. 

Our 2020 incremental capacity forecast for Australia has been lowered and that for 2021-24 raised, largely as a result of a reassessment of the likely online date of the 310MW Robbins Island. Planned for a site in Tasmania, it is now expected online in 2021. By the end of 2024, we expect Australia’s total installed capacity to have reached 12.6GW. 

Elsewhere in the region, our 2019 newly installed capacity forecast has been raised, reflecting renewed progress at the 52MW Astana development in Kazakhstan. It will comprise 15 Vestas 3.45MW turbines, with delivery scheduled to begin in the third quarter of 2018.

Asia-Pacific capacity forecast (MW)

 

Emerging markets

We have revised our incremental capacity forecasts for the emerging markets and by the end of 2024, we now expect them to have installed a total of 65.4GW. 

For Egypt, we have raised our long-term forecast by 500MW, reflecting the additional capacity likely to stem from cooperation between Masdar, El Sewedy and Marubeni in the Gulf of Suez. By the end of 2024, we now expect Egypt to have installed a total of 4.3GW. 

We have also raised our 2018 and 2021-24 incremental capacity forecasts for Brazil and by the end of the forecast period, we now expect Brazil’s total installed capacity to have reached 23GW. For Mexico, we have raised our 2019 forecast, due to the addition to the pipeline of the newly identified 118MW Vicente Guerrero project. Planned for a site in Tamaulipas, it will comprise 33 Vestas 3.45MW turbines. 

Our 2018 incremental capacity forecasts for South Africa and Chile have also been raised, as have the 2018 and 2019 forecasts for Uruguay. And for Morocco, our 2018 forecast has been raised, as we now expect the 120MW Khalladi to come online this year, a little later than previously envisaged.

Emerging markets capacity forecast (MW)

 

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