The end of 2017 saw new capacity coming online, turbine and power purchase agreements being signed and assets changing hands. Vestas announced that its 2017 global order intake amounted to 10,595MW – up on its 2016 record of 10,494MW – boosted by a flurry of orders in the final weeks of the year.
In the USA, Innogy and Terra Firma Capital Partners signed an agreement, whereby Innogy will acquire a 2GW portfolio of projects from EverPower Wind Holdings. Enel Green Power North America’s 300MW Red Dirt and 298MW Thunder Ranch in Oklahoma were brought online, as were Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners’ 196.7MW Bearkat I and Terna Energy’s 155.4MW Fluvanna I in Texas, EDF Renewable Energy’s 154MW Rock Falls in Oklahoma and NextEra Energy’s 120MW Bluff Point in Indiana. Meanwhile, permitting got under way for Invenergy’s 250MW McLean County project in Illinois. But the 468MW Cape Wind project was terminated. Planned for a site in Nantucket Sound, Massachusetts, it had been dormant since losing its power purchase agreements in 2015.
In Canada, four wind projects totalling just under 600MW were selected in Alberta’s first renewable energy auction and Vestas received a firm and unconditional order for 87 V136-3.45MW turbines, for the 300MW Henvey Inlet project in Ontario. And in Mexico, construction was set to start at Zuma Energía’s 424MW Reynosa III project in Tamaulipas.
Activity also remained buoyant in Europe. Montenegro’s first wind farm – Akuo Energy’s 72MW Krnovo – was brought online. Peikko Group was contracted to supply gravity foundation technology to the first phase of the 650MW Markbygden project in Piteå, northern Sweden. OX2 and Aquila Capital reached an agreement on the 357MW Valhalla project in central Sweden, whereby Aquila Capital will acquire the development and OX2 will deliver it through an EPC contract. And Vestas was contracted to supply the project’s 85 V136-4.2 MW turbines. Meanwhile, STEAG agreed to sell a 49% stake in its 94MW French wind portfolio, to an Allianz Global Investors-managed fund. In the offshore sector, the 332MW Nordsee One commenced full commercial operations, installation was completed at the 573MW Race Bank and the 353MW Galloper and Iberdrola grid connected its 350MW Wikinger. Meanwhile, Statkraft sold its 40% stake in the 317MW Sheringham Shoal and agreed the sale of its 30% stake in the 402MW Dudgeon.
In Thailand, GE agreed to supply ninety 3.0-137 turbines to the three-phase, 270MW Theparak development. In India, Vestas secured a 250MW turnkey order from Ostro Kutch Power, for 125 V110-2.0 MW turbines for a project in Gujarat. In China, Hubei Development and Reform Commission approved 240MW of projects. And in Egypt, Lekela and the Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company (EETC) signed a power purchase agreement for Lekela’s 250MW project in the Gulf of Suez.
Our first forecasts of 2018 detail our short- and medium-term expectations for incremental capacity in each of 2018, 2019 and 2020, as well as our forecasts for the 2021-24 period. Our 2018 and 2019 global incremental capacity forecasts have been raised slightly, while that for the longer term foresees total installed capacity of 844.6GW by the end of 2024.
Europe’s 2018 incremental capacity forecast has been raised, but our long-term forecast remains largely unchanged and by 2024, the region’s total installed capacity is expected to have reached 259.4GW.
For North America, we have raised our 2018 incremental capacity forecast. We have lowered that for 2019, but raised that for 2020, reflecting some project delays in the US. By the end of 2024, we expect North America’s total installed capacity to have reached 142.6GW.
For Asia-Pacific, our 2018 and 2019 incremental capacity forecasts have been raised slightly, mainly reflecting the addition of a number of newly identified projects. Our long-term forecasts are largely unchanged and by the end of 2024, we expect Asia-Pacific to have installed a total of 379.2GW.
We have lowered our 2018 forecast for incremental capacity in the emerging markets, but raised that for 2019, mainly due to project delays in Mexico and Chile. By the end of 2024, the emerging markets’ total installed capacity is expected to have reached 57.7GW.
Europe’s short-, medium- and long-term incremental capacity forecasts have been slightly revised and by 2024, we expect the region to have 259.4GW of wind capacity in place.
For the UK, our 2018 forecast has been lowered, as we now expect the 96MW Clocaenog Forest in Wales to come online in 2019. We have revised our 2019 incremental capacity forecast accordingly and have also added the newly approved 40.8MW Windy Rig project in Scotland to the pipeline.
For Germany, we have raised our 2018 incremental capacity forecast, largely reflecting the addition of some newly identified projects. For France, we have also raised our 2018 forecast, but lowered that for 2019, as we now expect the 36MW L’Epine Marie Madeleine to come online a little earlier than previously envisaged.
Our 2018 incremental capacity forecast for Italy has been raised slightly, reflecting the addition to the pipeline of the newly identified 39MW Bosco Le Piane development. Set to comprise 13 Siemens Gamesa 3MW turbines, it is under construction at a site in Basilicata. Meanwhile, we have slightly raised our 2018 incremental capacity forecast for Denmark, to take account of the newly identified and newly completed 17.25MW Skovengen project.
We have raised North America’s 2018 incremental capacity forecast, but lowered that for 2019. For the longer term, total installed capacity is forecast to have reached 142.6GW by the end of 2024.
In the US, we have revised our 2018 newly installed capacity forecasts for Texas and Iowa. We have also revised Iowa’s 2019 forecast, as we now expect the 1.3GW Wind XI to come online a little later than previously envisaged. Oklahoma’s and California’s 2018 incremental capacity forecasts have also been revised. For the USA as a whole, we expect total installed capacity to have reached 123.5GW by the end of 2024, while for Canada, we expect total installed capacity to have reached 19GW by the end of the forecast period.
We have raised Asia-Pacific’s near- and medium- term incremental capacity forecasts, mainly reflecting project delays and a number of newly identified projects. For the region as a whole, total installed capacity is expected to have reached 379.2GW by the end of 2024.
Our 2018 and 2019 incremental capacity forecasts for China have been raised slightly, mainly due to a number of newly identified projects being added to the pipeline. Over the longer term, we expect China’s total installed capacity to have reached 295.6GW by the end of 2024.
For India, we have raised our 2018 and 2019 newly installed capacity forecasts. By the end of the forecast period, India’s total installed capacity is expected to have reached 54.9GW. We have also raised our forecasts for Australia and by 2024, we expect Australia’s total installed capacity to have reached 12.4GW.
Elsewhere in the region, we have raised our 2018 incremental capacity forecast, largely as a result of the newly identified 270MW Theparak development in Thailand being added to the pipeline. It will comprise 90 GE 3MW turbines.
We have lowered our 2018 incremental capacity forecast for the emerging markets, mainly as a result of project delays, and raised our 2019 forecast accordingly. Those for the longer term are largely unchanged and by 2024, we expect total installed capacity in the emerging markets to have reached 63.5GW.
For Mexico, we have lowered our 2018 incremental capacity forecast, but raised that for 2019, as we now expect the 424MW Reynosa III to come online a little later than previously envisaged. Set to comprise 123 Vestas 3.45MW turbines, it is currently under construction in Tamaulipas. By 2024, Mexico’s total installed capacity is expected to have reached 8.5GW.
For Brazil, our medium- and long-term forecasts are largely unchanged and by 2024, we expect Brazil’s total installed capacity to have reached 22.5GW. For Chile, our 2018 incremental capacity forecast has been lowered, as we now expect the 32.4MW La Flor development to come online next year. Our 2019 forecast has been raised accordingly. Elsewhere, we have also revised our 2018 newly installed capacity forecasts for Egypt and Argentina.
All statistics, graphics and tables in this report are based on real projects as recorded in the Windpower Intelligence Tracker.