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Windpower Intelligence Global Forecast: December 2017

Below we present our latest global capacity forecasts to 2023.

Download the report: Global Forecast December 2017

Project summary

November saw no let up in project activity. In the USA, Enel’s 300MW Rock Creek in Missouri and Lincoln Clean Energy’s 250MW Willow Springs in Texas came online. Avangrid Renewables acquired the 400MW Golden Hills project in Oregon, construction commenced at Enel’s newly acquired 320MW Rattlesnake Creek in Nebraska and Empire District Electric Co. began permitting for 800MW in Missouri. Meanwhile, Enel agreed to sell 80% stakes in the 200MW Caney River in Kansas and the 150MW Rocky Ridge in Oklahoma, to Gulf Pacific Power.

In Argentina, rights to long-term PPAs were granted to eight projects of 665.8MW total capacity. In Mexico, Enel was awarded the rights to 15-year electricity supply contracts linked to four projects of 593MW total capacity. And in Chile, Acciona Energía announced the start of construction work at its 183MW San Gabriel development in Araucanía.

In the UK, Ventient Energy Ltd was launched. Its 690MW portfolio was formed from the Zephyr portfolio of 15 wind farms and 19 of Infinis’ former assets. In Sweden, GE and Green Investment Group acquired Svevind’s 650MW Markbygden ETT project. And in the Netherlands, Vattenfall ordered 50 N117/3600 turbines for its Wieringermeer project. It also signed a ten-year agreement with Microsoft, to supply 180MW of power from 2019.

In the offshore sector, Siemens Gamesa agreed to supply 113 turbines, to Vattenfall’s 600MW Kriegers Flak and the 350MW Vesterhav Nord and Vesterhav Syd. Meanwhile, Ørsted sold 50% of the 659MW Walney Extension to PKA and PFA. GeoSea was appointed preferred supplier of turbine transportation and installation services at the 860MW Triton Knoll. NKT signed a Preferred Bidder Agreement for the export cable systems at the 950MW Moray East. And the 400MW Rampion and the 353MW Galloper delivered their first power.

In Australia, plans for an up to 6GW wind and solar hybrid plant were unveiled. The Asian Renewable Energy Hub is being co-developed by CWP Energy Asia, InterContinental Energy and Vestas. It would feature 4GW of wind capacity and 2GW of solar and export its electricity to Indonesia. And Offshore Energy and Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners agreed to co-develop Australia’s first offshore wind farm: the up to 2GW Star of the South, planned for a site off Gippsland, Victoria. Meanwhile, DP Energy appointed Vestas as preferred turbine supplier for Stage 1 of its 375MW Port Augusta Renewable Energy Park, but RES Australia announced that it was abandoning its 758MW Penshurst development.

Elsewhere, Siemens Gamesa agreed to supply 103 G126-2.5 MW turbines to the 260MW Hanuman complex in Thailand and 100 G114-2.0 MW turbines to Orange Renewable’s 200MW Poovani project in India. In China, the 300MW Bayanhanggai and 225MW Zhengxiangbaiqi projects in Inner Mongolia were approved. And Windhoist began turbine installation at Société Energie Eolienne du Maroc’s 201.6MW Aftissat development in Western Sahara.

Monthly forecast

Our 2017 global incremental capacity forecast remains largely unchanged and our 2018-23 forecasts have been raised, to take account of several newly identified and re-activated projects. We now expect total installed capacity to have reached 797.3GW by the end of 2023.

Europe’s 2017 and 2018 newly installed capacity forecasts have been raised, as have those for 2019-23. By the end of the forecast period, the region’s total installed capacity is expected to have reached 255.2GW.

For North America, we have raised our 2017 and 2018 incremental capacity forecasts, but lowered that for 2019. We have also raised our long-term forecast and by the end of 2023, we now expect North America’s total installed capacity to have reached 138.3GW.

Asia-Pacific’s 2017 incremental capacity forecast has been reduced slightly and those for the 2018-2023 period raised. By the end of 2023, we expect the region’s total installed capacity to have reached 343.2GW.

For the emerging markets, we have lowered our 2017, 2018 and 2019 incremental capacity forecasts, but raised that for 2020-23. By 2023, the emerging markets’ total installed capacity is expected to have reached 60.7GW.

Europe

We have revised our newly installed capacity forecasts for Europe and by 2023, we expect the region’s total installed capacity to have reached just over 255GW.

We have raised our 2017 and 2018 incremental capacity forecasts for Germany, reflecting an upgrade to the estimated additions to onshore wind capacity. Our 2017 forecast for France has been raised, reflecting the addition of some newly identified and newly online wind farms. Those for 2019-23 have also been raised, reflecting a number of newly identified projects being added to the pipeline.

Our 2018 incremental capacity forecasts for Italy and Turkey have also been raised, as has the 2019 forecast for Sweden. This reflects our expectation that the 650MW Markbygden will be fully operational by the end of 2019. It will be the largest single site onshore wind farm in Europe and raise Sweden’s installed wind capacity by more than 12.5%.

Elsewhere in the region, we have lowered our 2018 incremental capacity forecast, as we now expect the 104.5MW Kovacica (Blacksmith) project in Serbia to come online a little later than previously envisaged. Commissioning is planned for 2019 and we have raised our incremental capacity forecast accordingly.

North America

We have raised our 2017 and 2018 incremental capacity forecasts for North America and lowered that for 2019. Our long-term forecast for the region has been raised and we now expect total installed capacity to have reached 138.3GW by the end of 2023.

In the US, we have raised our 2017 newly installed capacity forecast for Texas, but lowered that for 2018, as Lincoln Clean Energy’s 250MW Willow Springs has come online a little earlier than previously envisaged. For Iowa, Oklahoma and California, our short-, medium- and long-term forecasts are largely unchanged.

For the US as a whole, our 2020-23 incremental capacity forecast has been raised, reflecting the addition of the newly identified 98MW Coyote Ridge and 98MW Tatanka Ridge developments. Planned for sites in South Dakota, Avangrid Renewables’ two projects have been granted permission to build and are expected online in 2020. By the end of 2023, we now expect the USA’s total installed capacity to have reached 118.9GW.

In Canada, our incremental capacity forecasts for Ontario and Quebec are largely unchanged. For the country as a whole, our 2017 forecast has been lowered slightly, as we now expect the 15MW Moose Lake in British Columbia to come online next year. Our 2018 forecast has been raised accordingly. Our long-term forecast for Canada remains unchanged and by 2023, we expect total installed capacity to have reached 19.4GW.

Asia-Pacific

We have lowered Asia-Pacific’s 2017 incremental capacity forecast, reflecting some project delays and suspensions. But our medium and long-term forecasts have been raised, due to newly identified and re-activated projects being added to the pipeline. For the region as a whole, total installed capacity is forecast to have reached 343.2GW by the end of 2023.

Our 2017 incremental capacity forecast for China has been lowered, mainly due to a number of project suspensions and delays. Our 2018 and 2019 forecasts have been raised accordingly. That for 2020-23 has also been raised, reflecting the addition to the pipeline of the newly identified 99.8MW Zhouzi and 300MW Bayanhanggai developments. Planned for sites in Inner Mongolia and Guangdong respectively, they are expected online in 2020 and 2021. By the end of the forecast period, China’s total installed capacity is expected to have reached 274.9GW.

For India, our 2018 incremental capacity forecast has been raised, due to the newly identified 40MW Basavane Bagewadi project being added. Planned for a site in Karnataka, it will comprise 18 Vestas 2.2MW turbines. We have raised our 2019 forecast, but lowered that for 2020-23, as we now expect the 200MW Poovani project in Tamil Nadu to come online earlier than previously envisaged. By the end of 2023, we now expect India’s total installed capacity to have reached 42.6GW.

Elsewhere, our 2019 incremental capacity forecast for Australia has been raised, reflecting our expectation that the 80MW Crowlands and 144MW Cattle Hill projects will come online a little earlier than previously envisaged. Our 2020-23 forecast has been altered accordingly and by the end of the forecast period, Australia’s total installed capacity is expected to have reached 11GW.

Emerging markets

We have revised our incremental capacity forecasts for a number of countries and by the end of 2023, we now expect total installed capacity in the emerging markets to have reached 60.7GW.

Our 2017 newly installed capacity forecast for Brazil has been raised slightly and those for 2018 and 2019 lowered. That for 2020-23 remains unchanged and by the end of the forecast period, we still expect Brazil’s total installed capacity to have reached 21.6GW.

For Mexico, our short- and medium-term forecasts remain unchanged. But we have raised our long-term incremental capacity forecast, reflecting the addition to the pipeline of the 100MW Amistad II and 100MW Amistad III projects. Planned for sites in Coahuila, they are expected online in 2020.

We have raised our 2017 incremental capacity forecast for South Africa, but lowered that for 2018, as the newly grid connected 100.5MW Longyuan Mulilo De Aar Maanhaarberg in Northern Cape is expected to come online shortly, earlier than previously envisaged.

For Chile, our 2019 forecast has been raised, as we now expect the 183MW San Gabriel to come online earlier than previously envisaged. Planned for a site in Araucanía, it is currently being constructed by Acciona Energia. Our long-term forecast for Chile has been lowered accordingly.

For Egypt, we have lowered our 2019 forecast, but raised that for 2020-23, due to project delays. For Morocco, our 2017 forecast has been lowered, as we now expect the 120MW Khalladi to come online in 2018, a little later than previously envisaged. Our 2018 forecast has been raised accordingly.

All statistics, graphics and tables in this report are based on real projects as recorded in the Windpower Intelligence Tracker.




 



 


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