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Windpower Intelligence Global Forecast: November 2017

Below we present our latest global capacity forecasts to 2023.

Download the report: Global Forecast November 2017

Project summary

October saw new capacity coming online, construction continuing, assets changing hands, finance arranged and contracts awarded. In the USA, Lincoln Clean Energy’s 253MW Amazon Wind Farm Texas came online and construction was completed at E.ON’s 306MW Radford’s Run in Illinois. Mortenson Construction was contracted to build Xcel Energy’s 200MW Blazing Star 1 and 200MW Blazing Star 2 in Minnesota and Wanzek Construction was lined up to build the 150MW Foxtail Wind in North Dakota and the 200MW Freeborn in Minnesota. And Siemens Gamesa announced that it would supply 310 turbines, to five US projects of 784MW combined capacity.

In Canada, Innergex Renewable Energy Inc. announced that it would acquire Alterra Power Corp. for $1.1bn. And applications were filed by Suncor for its 400MW Suncor Forty Mile project and by Bowark Energy for its 290MW Lanfine project. In Mexico, Enel Green Power signed agreements with Caisse de dépot et placement du Québec and CKD Infraestructura México, for the sale of 80% of a newly formed holding company that owns eight special purpose vehicles. In turn, the SPVs own 1.7GW of operational and under construction renewable energy capacity, 720MW of which is wind.

In Europe, Boralex and Infinergy formed a 50-50 joint venture, aimed at developing a 325MW pipeline of onshore wind projects in Scotland. And Statkraft and Airvolution Clean Energy agreed to partner on a 300MW project pipeline, primarily in Scotland. In Ireland, commercial operations commenced at the 169MW Galway Wind Park.

In the Netherlands, Vattenfall announced that it would repower and expand its Wieringermeer wind farm, raising capacity to 295MW. Siemens Gamesa agreed to supply 67 turbines to the 281MW Nordlicht project in Norway and Glennmont Partners completed the €190m refinancing of its 245MW SER portfolio, comprising five wind farms in southern Italy.

In the offshore sector, Innogy acquired Statkraft’s 50% stake in Triton Knoll, thereby becoming the 860MW development’s sole owner. The 402MW Dudgeon became fully operational, Parkwind became a strategic partner in the 330MW Oriel project and the Belgian Government awarded a strike price of €79/MWh for the 300MW Mermaid, 246MW Seastar and 224MW Northwester 2 projects. Meanwhile, construction commenced at Vattenfall’s 406MW Horns Rev 3 and was completed at Iberdrola’s 350MW Wikinger. TenneT and Blauwwind signed a grid connection agreement for the 700MW Borssele III and IV and VBMS was contracted to install the two 67km-long export cables. And MHI Vestas was announced as the preferred turbine supplier to the 950MW Moray East project, planned for a site in the North Sea off Scotland.

In China, Huaneng’s 300MW Rudong offshore project was brought online, while four developments of 1.1GW total capacity were approved in Inner Mongolia. And in India, Orange Renewable secured the rights to develop a 200MW wind farm in Toothukudi, Tamil Nadu.

Monthly forecast

We have lowered our 2017 global incremental capacity forecast, but raised those for 2019-23 and by the end of the forecast period, we now expect total installed capacity to have reached 794.4GW.

Europe’s 2017 incremental capacity forecast has been raised slightly. Our 2018-19 forecasts remain unchanged, while that for 2020-23 has been raised, reflecting the addition of newly identified projects. By the end of 2023, Europe’s total installed capacity is expected to have reached 251.4GW.

For North America, we have reduced our 2017 and 2018 incremental capacity forecasts, but those for 2019-23 have been raised, to take account of newly identified, newly announced and re-activated projects. By the end of 2023, we now expect North America’s total installed capacity to have reached 137.5GW.

Asia-Pacific’s 2017 incremental capacity forecast has been lowered slightly, while those for the 2018-23 period have been raised. By the end of 2023, we expect Asia-Pacific’s total installed capacity to have reached 344.8GW.

Europe

We have slightly revised our forecasts for a number of European countries and by 2023, we now expect the region’s total installed capacity to have reached 251.4GW.

We have raised Germany’s 2017 incremental capacity forecast, reflecting the addition of a number of small, newly identified, newly online wind farms. We have also raised that for France, again reflecting the addition of newly identified capacity. But we have lowered our 2018 and 2019 forecasts for Sweden, reflecting the project terminations announced by Statkraft Södra Vindkraft.

Elsewhere in the region, we have raised our 2019 forecast, but lowered that for 2020-23, as the 281MW Nordlicht project in Norway is now expected online in 2019, a little earlier than previously envisaged. The project site lies west of Tromsø in northern Norway, on two neighbouring mountains. On Kvitfjell, 47 turbines will be installed, while 20 will be installed on Raudfjell. The major investor in the project is the German pension fund Ärzteversorgung Westfalen-Lippe (ÄVWL).

North America

We have lowered our 2017 and 2018 incremental capacity forecasts for North America, due to project suspensions and delays. But our medium- and long-term forecasts have been raised and the region is expected to have 137.5GW in place by the end of 2023.

We have raised our 2019 newly installed capacity forecast for Texas, reflecting the expectation that the 350MW Foard City project will come online then. The project is one of the assets that Innergex Renewable Energy Inc. is to acquire from Alterra Power Corp. For Oklahoma, we have lowered our 2017 forecast, but raised that for 2018, as we now expect the 76.5MW Chilocco II to come online a little later than previously envisaged. Under construction at a site in Kay County, it will comprise 45 GE 1.7MW turbines.

For the US as a whole, our 2020-23 forecast has been raised by 200MW, reflecting the newly identified 200MW North Slope development. Planned for a site in New York, it is being developed by EDP Renewables. It should be online in October 2021. By the end of the forecast period, we now expect the US to have 117.8GW of installed capacity in place.

In Canada, the near- , medium- and long-term incremental capacity forecasts for Ontario and Quebec remain unchanged. For the country as a whole, we have raised our 2019 incremental capacity forecast, reflecting the addition of the newly identified 149.6MW Paintearth Wind and the re-activated 122.4MW Wheatland. Planned for sites in Alberta, they are being developed by Greengate and Potentia Renewables. By 2023, we now expect Canada’s total installed capacity to have reached 19.7GW.

Asia-Pacific

Our short-, medium- and long-term incremental capacity forecasts for Asia-Pacific have been updated and for the region as a whole, we now expect total installed capacity to have reached 344.8GW by the end of 2023.

Delays at a number of projects mean we have lowered our 2017 incremental capacity forecast for China. Our 2018 and 2019 forecasts have been raised accordingly. Our long-term forecast has also been raised, primarily reflecting the addition to the pipeline of the newly identified 200MW Bieligutai I project in Inner Mongolia, which is expected online in 2020. By the end of 2023, China’s total installed capacity is expected to have reached 276.4GW.

For India, we have raised our 2017 incremental capacity forecast, reflecting the addition of a number of newly identified and newly online wind farms in Karnataka. Our 2018 and 2019 forecasts for India have also been raised, reflecting several newly identified projects being added. Our long-term forecast remains unchanged and by the end of 2023, we expect to see 42.5GW of wind capacity installed in India.

We have lowered our 2018 incremental capacity forecast for Australia, as we now expect the 99MW Granville Harbour project in Tasmania to come online in 2020, later than previously envisaged. Our 2020-23 forecast has been raised, also to reflect the re-activated 144MW Wild Cattle Hill project. Planned for a site in Tasmania, it is being developed by Goldwind and is now expected online in 2020. By the end of 2023, Australia’s total installed capacity is expected to have reached 10.9GW.

Emerging markets

Our 2017 and 2018 incremental capacity forecasts for the emerging markets have been lowered, mainly due to project suspensions and delays. Our 2019-23 forecasts have been raised accordingly and by the end of 2023, we expect the emerging markets to have installed a total of 60.6GW. 

For Brazil, we have raised our 2018 forecast, but lowered that for 2019. Our long-term forecast remains unchanged and by the end of 2023, we expect Brazil’s total installed capacity to have reached 21.6GW. For Mexico, our 2017 and 2018 incremental capacity forecasts have been lowered, but we still expect Mexico’s total installed capacity to have reached 7.9GW by 2023. Similarly, we have revised our forecasts for South Africa.

All statistics, graphics and tables in this report are based on real projects as recorded in the Windpower Intelligence Tracker.

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